LBJ may never make it to Congress!
***
The court-packing plan in OTL did much to crystalize the "conservative
coalition" of Republicans and (mostly southern) conservative Democrats that
was to hamstring the New Deal for the remainder of FDR's years in office and
afterwards. I stated in a post some years ago that "that coalition would
have eventually formed anyway. The near-unanimous support FDR got from
Congressional Democrats under the emergency conditions of 1933 could not be
sustained forever." I still think this is true, especially since the 1937-8
recession would weaken FDR's hand, yet without the bitterness of the court-
packing fight, even conservative Democrats might be more willing to
compromise with the administration. Furthermore, the court-packing fight was
one major reason for FDR's subsequent blunder of the attempted "purge" of
anti-New Deal Democrats in 1938, which further embittered conservative
Democrats and perhaps led to the New Dealers losing more heavily in the 1938
election than they would otherwise have done.
However, there is one other possible effect of a no-court-packing-controversy
scenario I had neglected in prior posts. In a special election for Congress
from the Texas Tenth Congressional District in 1937, young Lyndon Johnson
made backing for the court-packing plan one of the main themes of his
campaign. He was not the only candidate to support the plan, but he gave the
impression that he was, that all the others were at best reluctant about it,
etc. He warned that all the New Deal programs that ordinary Texans liked,
such as rural electrification, depended on a favorable Supreme Court, and
told the voters that "any candidate who poses as a friend of the Colorado
River Authority but is against Court reform is contradicting himself."
Randall Woods, *LBJ: Architect of American Ambition*
http://books.google.com/books?vid=I...ts=xeTNAkPMT6&sig=Ih6KP3ZEb_QFMbBkB__rKrWGb44
"In a race against much better-known candidates, [LBJ's] organization would
not have begun to be enough had Johnson not shrewdly exploited FDR's
popularity in the Tenth District. To the consternation of some of his
opponents, Johnson managed to create the impression that he was the only one
of the nine candidates that supported FDR's Court-packing plan, a claim that
was palpably false.... [Johnson said:] 'Mr. Roosevelt is in trouble now.
When we needed help, he helped us. Now *he* needs help...Are you going to
help Mr. Roosevelt? That is what this election is all about.'
"Johnson reminded the voters that the eyes not only of Texas but of the
country were upon them, for they were making a choice that could determine
the whole future of the Roosevelt presidency. He leafleted the district with
flyers containing an excerpt from Ray Tucker's 'National Whirligig' column:
'Major plebiscite on the supreme court will take place in Texas April
10...Young Lyndon Johnson, former national youth administrator, carries FDR's
judicial colors....Several senators now lukewarm towards the White House
scheme may suddenly shift if Mr. Roosevelt wins out there by proxy.'
"It did not take long for Roosevelt's circle to buy the idea that Johnson was
FDR's 'proxy.' Elliott Roosevelt announced publicly for Johnson because, as
he explained in a telegram to Jim Farley, 'Congressional race to pick
successor is coming to a head down here as straight out fight between Lyndon
Johnson who is backing father wholeheartedly on his whole program including
the court issue and two other candidates who have refused to support father
on that question.' Farley himself deviated from his usual posture of strict
neutrality in primary bouts. On a tour of Texas, ostensibly to dedicate some
post offices, the Democratic national chairman referred to Johnson as FDR's
'champion.'
"By identifying himself with FDR, Johnson won a stunning victory that was
widely interpreted as a vote of confidence for Roosevelt and Court-packing.
The Associated Press ticker announced: 'Youthful Lyndon B. Johnson, who
shouted his advocacy of President Roosevelt's court reorganization all over
the Tenth Texas District, was elected today,' while a Texas newspaper
headlined the result:
"'JOHNSON ELECTED TO CONGRESS BY BIG VOTE
FDR'S COURT PROPOSAL OKAYED BY TENTH DISTRICT'"
William E. Leuchtenberg, *In the Shadow of FDR: From Harry Truman to Barack Obama*
https://books.google.com/books?id=k0Y9BwAAQBAJ&pg=PT158&lpg=PT158
Without the court-packing controversy, LBJ would still have portrayed himself
as FDR's great supporter, but without a palpable sense that FDR was in
trouble (the court-packing plan had drawn much criticism even from former
supporters), would such a portrayal have been enough to win the election?
And if LBJ had lost this election, would he ever have become Senator, Vice
President, and ultimately President?
https://groups.google.com/d/msg/soc.history.what-if/beII6vdlpPI/raZBEa5FMIsJ