WI; Fascist Italy did not invade Abbysinia?

The invasion of Abbysinia, a very important League of Nations member, by Italy, was a turning point in Mussolini's relations with other powers. it isolated Italy from the international community, and forced it to ally with Nazi Germany. However, the Italians had an incentive: revenge. They wanted revenge for their international embarassment for the First Italo-Ethiopia War (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Italo-Ethiopian_War).

If the Italians refrained from invading ethiopia, is it possible that they stay out of WWII, or even, join the Entente? After all ,after the Anshlauss, they were freaked out by Germany's ambitions of annexing German portions of Trentino. What are the ramifications to Italian colonialism? how would the monarchy be looked upon? (The King didn't support an invasion of Ethiopia). how would Fascism be looked upon? Internationally? Internally?
 
Well, taking out Mussolini early on might allow a less blatantly expansionist Duce to take the helm, or maybe others talk Mussie out of it. Still, Adowa sat heavy on the Italian conscience, so it'd be rather difficult, I'd think, to stop it outright. However, OTL Britain tried bribing Italy into accepting a simple "protectorate" status (de facto economic control) in Abyssinia during the "crisis", so maybe they take the carrot ATL.

The butterflies have major possibilities. If Italy's not persona non grata they *might* be able to build a coalition against anschluss (which they vehemently opposed for obvious strategic reasons) and perhaps stop Hitler early. Alternately, perhaps they better resist Nazi overtures and either stay more aloof or even side with the Allies over Germany's sudden and alarming growth.

If/when war happens they could remain neutral, join the allies, join the seemingly-unstoppable *axis, or any combination there-of.

Assuming they avoid the pitfall of the Axis there's no reason to suppose they don't survive the war. Depending on Duce this could lead to a "Francoist Spain" analog or a longer-term Fascist presence. A lot depends on finding and exploiting that Libyan oil. lt'd be overtly anti-Communist, though it *could* play the field a bit between the two sides like India, Indonesia, and China did at various times.

Note: Viva Balbo (see sig) will eventually deal with a lot of these issues (please excuse the slow update schedule :eek:).
 
The invasion of Abyssinia was mainly dictated by Mussolini's megalomania and it's usually considered the point from which allies and Italy parted their ways. This seems to me an exagerration, since no real effort was made to have Mussolini leave Ethiopia.

Now, if you look at the sanction imposed to Italy by the society of nation, you'll notice that among the many resources listed, oil is not among them. An oil embargo would have halted the whole italian industry and brought to heel Mussolini.

So the whole Abyssinia question is not really important, regarding Mussolini behaviour.

Had il Duce choose to extend a protectorate over Ethiopia, the italian industry would have been in a better shape for sure, but it's hard to say what would have been the italian politics in the later years.

As Geekhis Khan wrote the butterflies are innumerable.

A better point to determine the possible italian politic would be the spanish civil war. OTL only it was after the friction with the royal navy during the SCW that Mussolini started to consider Great Britain a possible enemy.
 
Here's an alternative: What if Fascist Italy LOST in Abyssinia...again?

Hard to say. Certainly a major humiliation to the regime, possibly a fatal one. Mussie's grip was iron at that point, but if the Fascist party loses the King, RE and RM it's game over, man.

Maybe Mussie has to step down and someone new steps up to the plate. I'd expect at least a three-way scrum with Balbo, Ciano, and Farinacci. Option 1...see sig. Option 2...hard to say. Mussie Lite, certainly. Possibly less ties to Germany, maybe no Axis, maybe no war or some amorphous semi-neutral "parallel war". Option 3...fan, meet fertilizer. Hitler Lite time.
 

Markus

Banned
That would be bad for old Benny if he decides to join the war in 1940.

In OTL the war in east Africa tied down five commonwealth divisions and an impressive number of independent units until late 1941(see details). If this campaign does not happen the two Indian and the South African division are likely to go to the Med and the African divisions could reinforce Burma and Malaya. That will have consequences for Operation Compass and maybe even the Malaya Campaign.
 
Here's an alternative: What if Fascist Italy LOST in Abyssinia...again?
That would be hard. But possible, if the Rases can turn their tactical victory at Dembe Guna into a decisive strategic victory for the whole Christmas offensive. Perhaps catching word of Badoglio's desire to use poison gas, they attack the Italians on Christmas, defending this by their "ungodly" desire to use illegal weapons. Badoglio is forced to withdraw to Axum, where he finds himself in an extremely hostile climate. Many of the Eritreans desert. Meanwhile, Ras Desta is able to catch Grazani while he advances, and again many Eritreans desert. With both fronts now being fought as an Italian defensive, and in Italian territory, Rome is in chaos.
 
One of the Reasons Italy wanted Ethiopia was to connect Eritrea with Somalia.

Now during the 20's when Britain was losing the Guerrilla war with the Wabbists, the was a lite flirting with letting Italy have British Somalia.
However a British air patrol ambushed a Convey carrying the main Wabbi Iman and his lieutenants. The War died off and the British drew back from the Idea.

POD the Air patrol misses the Convey, and Britain sells Somalia to Italy.
Italy Involved in a War in British Somalia, never invades Abyssinia, preferring to move in Economically rather than expand the conflict.
 
The obvious point of this thread is to keep Italy out of the war, so what developments would occur if Italy stayed out of the war? Could it be possible, that, assuming Italy LOST in Abyssinia, the Fascists are overthrown? The effects of a new government? What would that government look like?
 
Here's an alternative: What if Fascist Italy LOST in Abyssinia...again?

Really improbable. OTL the war lasted only from october 1935 to may 1936. If faced with more opposition Mussolini would have simply used more troops and probably even more poison gas to conquest Ethiopia. Fascists would have probably been even more brutal in the repression after the war. Ethiopia could have had a chance if supported by a foreing power, but support never really existed.

Point is that Mussolini had linked a lot of his personal prestige to this expedition and he was willing to use everything to win. A defeat would have spelled his end, but probably not the regime's end.

Though a longer abyssinian war could have an interesting side effect. OTL the invasion was extremely expensive. A longer engagement (during till may 1937, for example) would have needed even more money. Since the italian economical situation wasn't really good the extre effort in East Africa could prejudicate any later "adventure", like the intervention in the spanish civil war. Without the clash with the allies in Spain, Mussolini could have decided for neutrality during the WW2, or to be more sympathethic to the british cause.
 
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