WI - Fascist Ethiopia?

Would Mussolini support a fascist Haile Selassie?
I doubt it. Mussolini would still want to control Ethiopia. It was primarily for revenge for their defeat in 1895 against Ethiopia, but also it was the beginning of Mussolini's overall expansion. Metaxas actually admired Mussolini, yet Italy still invaded Greece. Mussolini still wanted a victory and he probably wouldn't be swayed if Ethiopia turned fascist.
 
Wouldn't change much if Ethiopia isn't willing to become an Italian satellite state. A fascist Ethiopia must have no territorial ambitions and must not have Mugabe-style nationalism. Territorial ambitions can only be achieved at the expense of Italian colonies, and anti-western rhetoric would not only anger Italy, it will also anger Britain and France. This would actually work in Italy's favour, they could attack without losing Britain and France's favour.
 

Ian_W

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Italy is also proof that trying to run a system based on glory via arms to show the strength of the state doesn't work very well when you don't have an industrial base.

I don't think any major differences happen - Ethiopia still gets attacked by Italy, and still loses.
 
Possibly; I'm going off a book Mussolini and his Generals here, but a fair share of the motivation for the invasion of Ethiopia was to test out military doctrine and equipment reforms as well as a big propaganda ploy. It's possible he could get that elsewhere if Selassite Ethiopia started wooing/emulating him early on. The man WAS keen on getting his ego stroked, and if Ethiopia is also willing to do something to help Italy's raw material situation (something similar to the Molotov-Ribentrov pact, directly exchanging material for manufactures without Italy needing to tap into her limited currency reserves) I see no reason why he couldent see them as a junior partner.
I don't think Ethiopia had much raw materials to spare for any deal with Italy and Haile Selassie may attempt to establish better Italo-Ethiopian relations if he adopts fascism.
 
Wouldn't change much if Ethiopia isn't willing to become an Italian satellite state. A fascist Ethiopia must have no territorial ambitions and must not have Mugabe-style nationalism. Territorial ambitions can only be achieved at the expense of Italian colonies, and anti-western rhetoric would not only anger Italy, it will also anger Britain and France. This would actually work in Italy's favour, they could attack without losing Britain and France's favour.
OTL Haile Selassie was pretty smart in regards of international law and allowing for Ethiopia to not fall to any de-facto European imperialism so I don't see why Fascist Haile Selassie will be much different, considering announcing any intentions to annex Eritrea would be met with immediate opposition from the surrounding European powers.
 
OTL Haile Selassie was pretty smart in regards of international law and allowing for Ethiopia to not fall to any de-facto European imperialism so I don't see why Fascist Haile Selassie will be much different, considering announcing any intentions to annex Eritrea would be met with immediate opposition from the surrounding European powers.
He would have to be willing to become a satellite state of Italy if he wanted to avoid direct European colonialism. Italy wanted to make Ethiopia a colony, this doesn't change if Haile Selassie is fascist. He has to offer Italy something.
 
He would have to be willing to become a satellite state of Italy if he wanted to avoid direct European colonialism. Italy wanted to make Ethiopia a colony, this doesn't change if Haile Selassie is fascist. He has to offer Italy something.
I kinda doubt this as Ethiopia didn't become a satellite state OTL but I can see Fascist Ethiopia offering a few economic concessions along the border with Italian Eritrea or Somaliland as the Ethiopians did with the British at Gambela.
 
I don't think Ethiopia had much raw materials to spare for any deal with Italy and Haile Selassie may attempt to establish better Italo-Ethiopian relations if he adopts fascism.

Then what are they offering in exchange for these better relations and Italian tolerance of their continued independence? To be blunt, Facist Realpolitik dictates for Mussolini that he needs a good reason NOT to annex Ethiopia
 
Then what are they offering in exchange for these better relations and Italian tolerance of their continued independence? To be blunt, Facist Realpolitik dictates for Mussolini that he needs a good reason NOT to annex Ethiopia
I'd assume some kind of economic concessions in the Ogaden, perhaps a parcel of the Ogaden being ceded to Italian Somaliland if things seem desperate enough - what do you believe the fascist Ethiopia would need in order to remain independent?
 
I'd assume some kind of economic concessions in the Ogaden, perhaps a parcel of the Ogaden being ceded to Italian Somaliland if things seem desperate enough - what do you believe the fascist Ethiopia would need in order to remain independent?

Here's the thing though; by simply making concessions, all Ethiopia does is display vulnerability/weakness and increase the odds Italy decide to just take the whole pie while undermining the fascist regeime. As I suggested before, you need to work out something that can be cast as an equitable trade and "win" by both sides, which likely means Ethiopia providing some kind of valuble resource to Italy. Either that comes from developing the extraction/production themselves or allowing Italian corperations to do it... though the later is a strong move towards establishing Italian hegemony over the Ethiopia government.
 
Here's the thing though; by simply making concessions, all Ethiopia does is display vulnerability/weakness and increase the odds Italy decide to just take the whole pie while undermining the fascist regeime. As I suggested before, you need to work out something that can be cast as an equitable trade and "win" by both sides, which likely means Ethiopia providing some kind of valuble resource to Italy. Either that comes from developing the extraction/production themselves or allowing Italian corperations to do it... though the later is a strong move towards establishing Italian hegemony over the Ethiopia government.
So what do you think the valuable resource could be? What would you recommend?
 
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Would Mussolini support a fascist Haile Selassie?
It sounds bizarre with the hindsight of OTL, but fascism could be twisted into some kind of "anticolonial/anti-imperialist" ideology with the right mental gymnastics. The focus on a strong leader, centralized power, strong state control over the economic development with vaguely anti-imperialist and socialistic rhetoric would just look more like Ba'athist Iraq or Syria.
Some of the best pieces of evidence for horseshoe theory are Mussolini quotes that sound like something Che Guevara or another communist guerrilla would put out in a propaganda statement.
"We are fighting to impose a higher social justice. The others are fighting to maintain the privileges of caste and class. We are proletarian nations that rise up against the plutocrats. It can not last the absurdity of artificially induced famines. They denounce the blatant failure of the system." - Source

Source 2
 

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It sounds bizarre with the hindsight of OTL, but fascism could be twisted into some kind of "anticolonial/anti-imperialist" ideology with the right mental gymnastics. The focus on a strong leader, centralized power, strong state control over the economic development with vaguely anti-imperialist and socialistic rhetoric would just look more like Ba'athist Iraq or Syria.
Some of the best pieces of evidence for horseshoe theory are Mussolini quotes that sound like something Che Guevara or another communist guerrilla would put out in a propaganda statement.
"We are fighting to impose a higher social justice. The others are fighting to maintain the privileges of caste and class. We are proletarian nations that rise up against the plutocrats. It can not last the absurdity of artificially induced famines. They denounce the blatant failure of the system." - Source

Source 2
This seems quite interesting and I can see why this branch of fascism would be enticing to the Ethiopian government under Haile Selassie. Do you have any other ideas?
 
Would this Ethiopia be an Italian client state? This would be feasible if Italy only annexed Ethiopia's Tigray and Somali-majority border regions to Italian Eritrea and Somaliland after the Italo-Ethiopian war. A partial "border-change" in 1936 would leave a rump Ethiopia in the Harrar, Amara, Scioa, and Galla-Sidamo governates of otl Italian East Africa. Is it plausible for Mussolini or Balbo to leave a rump Ethiopian fascist state with its own "duce" and rule more indirectly? This Ethiopia would still be economically dependent on Italy and a de-facto Italian colony, but still independent on paper.
Do you mean a Fascist Ethiopia in the aftermath of an Italian victory in the Second Italo-Ethiopian War? This seems more like a scenario where no one finds out about the Hoare-Laval Plan and is successfully implemented but who would an Ethiopia Duce be?
 
Would this Ethiopia be an Italian client state? This would be feasible if Italy only annexed Ethiopia's Tigray and Somali-majority border regions to Italian Eritrea and Somaliland after the Italo-Ethiopian war. A partial "border-change" in 1936 would leave a rump Ethiopia in the Harrar, Amara, Scioa, and Galla-Sidamo governates of otl Italian East Africa. Is it plausible for Mussolini or Balbo to leave a rump Ethiopian fascist state with its own "duce" and rule more indirectly? This Ethiopia would still be economically dependent on Italy and a de-facto Italian colony, but still independent on paper.

That sounds like the sort of fascist puppet states all over German-occupied Europe. It would have its supporters, but would be hated and resisted by many. That's not a good recipe for a fascist state, which needs a more organic organisation and establishment to be successful.

The hypothetical anticolonialist sort of fascism would be as good for Ethiopia as it would anywhere else (so a mixed bunch at best, like the anticolonial sort of socialism has proven to be), and likely better than the Italian-imposed fascism, but the big problem is that the biggest threat to Ethiopia is a fascist nation, so almost by default Ethiopia must be antifascist. You'd need Mussolini to be dead-set against any further expansion of the Italian colonial empire except at the expense of other colonial empires, yet also big into preaching anti-imperialism (hey, Imperial Japan did it), with regular condemnations of Anglo-French imperialism ("clearly, Italian colonialism in Tunisia would be much more benevolent than the brutal rule of the French!").
 
That sounds like the sort of fascist puppet states all over German-occupied Europe. It would have its supporters, but would be hated and resisted by many. That's not a good recipe for a fascist state, which needs a more organic organisation and establishment to be successful.

The hypothetical anticolonialist sort of fascism would be as good for Ethiopia as it would anywhere else (so a mixed bunch at best, like the anticolonial sort of socialism has proven to be), and likely better than the Italian-imposed fascism, but the big problem is that the biggest threat to Ethiopia is a fascist nation, so almost by default Ethiopia must be antifascist. You'd need Mussolini to be dead-set against any further expansion of the Italian colonial empire except at the expense of other colonial empires, yet also big into preaching anti-imperialism (hey, Imperial Japan did it), with regular condemnations of Anglo-French imperialism ("clearly, Italian colonialism in Tunisia would be much more benevolent than the brutal rule of the French!").
Would a fascist Ethiopia remain independent of Italian influence once the National Fascist Party comes to power earlier?

I was thinking that anti-colonialism could be apart of Ethiopian-style fascism but I doubt Mussolini would be against expanding the Italian Empire, especially into Ethiopia so perhaps he support a coup where an anti-Haile Selassie noble such as Lij Iyasu or Ras Hailu attempts to take power and then Ethiopia becomes a de-facto Italian colony? What other components would Ethiopian fascism include?
 
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