WI - Fascist Ethiopia?

I was thinking that a Fascist Ethiopia would be a good TL and wanted to see if it would be plausible or not.

Let's say, Ras Tafari Makonnen becomes Emperor of Ethiopia in 1918 as a result of Empress Zawditu's death from the 1918 flu pandemic. He is a modernizer, knowing that Ethiopia requires modernization and Westernization to prevent being partitioned by the surrounding colonial powers. In his search for a model for Ethiopia to be based upon, Haile Selassie turns towards Italy and the National Fascist Party which has risen to power because of the March on Rome in 1922. Haile Selassie then decides that fascism seems to be an acceptable model and begins implementing Italian-style fascism throughout Ethiopia as he focuses on consolidating his grip on the Ethiopian state in the 20s and 30s.

How plausible is it for a Fascist Ethiopia to emerge under an earlier Emperor Haile Selassie? What could it be like? How long would it last?
 
Monarcho-Fascism...interesting idea. I think a Fascist-influenced Haile Selassie is very possible, but I question whether the 'social infrastructure' in Ethiopia is there to really follow the Italian model. Italy had an established parliamentary system which allowed the Fascists to break into the existing political party system as part of their move to re-engineer society. IIRC, no such system existed in Ethiopia.

I think what we may see as the Fascist party is a 'royal clique', which would consist of previously minor hangers-on in the court working to implement Haile's vision of a centralized, modernized state while people who were wealthy and powerful under the ancien regime fight tooth and nail against the modernizations which threaten their established privilege.

What the common man thinks will depend on whether or not Haile Selassie is at all able to implement his program throughout the country, which is not a given.
 
Monarcho-Fascism...interesting idea. I think a Fascist-influenced Haile Selassie is very possible, but I question whether the 'social infrastructure' in Ethiopia is there to really follow the Italian model. Italy had an established parliamentary system which allowed the Fascists to break into the existing political party system as part of their move to re-engineer society. IIRC, no such system existed in Ethiopia.

I think what we may see as the Fascist party is a 'royal clique', which would consist of previously minor hangers-on in the court working to implement Haile's vision of a centralized, modernized state while people who were wealthy and powerful under the ancien regime fight tooth and nail against the modernizations which threaten their established privilege.

What the common man thinks will depend on whether or not Haile Selassie is at all able to implement his program throughout the country, which is not a given.
IMO, Ethiopian-style fascism could be more similar to Metaxism than Italian fascism and as for a parliamentary system, Ethiopia had an OTL parliament established in 1931 but I doubt it was too democratic and I think it was apart of Haile Selassie's plans to introduce democracy amongst the nobility first and then the people later. As for a fascist Haile Selassie, you could have him visit Italy after World War 1 and become attracted to the ideas of Italian fascism.

I can see a small group of fascist European-educated intellectuals under the Emperor being the official royal clique that oversees the centralization and modernization of the Ethiopian Empire, developing a siege mentality similarly to the Japanese. An Ethiopian Civil War sounds interesting, especially after a more recent one in 1916 but if Haile Selassie influences Zawditu into joining the Entente in 1917 and receives European advisors to assist in establishing his own professional army, this puts him ahead of the reactionary nobles whose peasant militias will have no chance.

How do you think the average Ethiopian will think of a fascist regime? I was assuming that if Haile Selassie played on Ethiopian nationalism and promised land reforms, he could become quite popular.
 
How do you think the average Ethiopian will think of a fascist regime? I was assuming that if Haile Selassie played on Ethiopian nationalism and promised land reforms, he could become quite popular.

The people who benefit from land reforms will be quite happy, I think.

Ethiopian nationalism, on the other hand, will be a mixed bag for its effect on the people. I don't see a Fascist Ethiopian regime being friendly to the large Muslim minority for example, so that's going to piss off a lot of people who will feel left out by this new Ethiopian national identity.
 
The people who benefit from land reforms will be quite happy, I think.

Ethiopian nationalism, on the other hand, will be a mixed bag for its effect on the people. I don't see a Fascist Ethiopian regime being friendly to the large Muslim minority for example, so that's going to piss off a lot of people who will feel left out by this new Ethiopian national identity.
Would a Fascist Ethiopia attempt to forcefully convert the Muslims of eastern and southern Ethiopia to Orthodox Christianity?
 
Would a Fascist Ethiopia attempt to forcefully convert the Muslims of eastern and southern Ethiopia to Orthodox Christianity?

I don't know if they would go that far, but perhaps if the court gets really overtaken by religious zealotry. However, I think that what's more likely is that they will treat Muslims as second class citizens-not give them land during land reforms and try to reduce them to wage labor, cut them out of government patronage networks, put them first in line for conscripted labor for the state, etc.

EDIT: Of course, perhaps Haile Selassie will be influenced by Mussolini's early anti-clericalism, and won't go in this direction. However, not enthusiastically supporting Christian interests will undercut support for him in other places.
 
I don't know if they would go that far, but perhaps if the court gets really overtaken by religious zealotry. However, I think that what's more likely is that they will treat Muslims as second class citizens-not give them land during land reforms and try to reduce them to wage labor, cut them out of government patronage networks, put them first in line for conscripted labor for the state, etc.
Sounds like a plausible way for the Fascist Ethiopian government to indirectly coerce Muslims into converting but how successful would this be? By how much would the Orthodox Christian population increase?
 
Sounds like a plausible way for the Fascist Ethiopian government to indirectly coerce Muslims into converting but how successful would this be? By how much would the Orthodox Christian population increase?

The closest equivalent IOTL I can see for that is the attempts by the French to convert Muslims in their African holdings.

So the answer to "how successful would this be" is "not very" at best, "giant uprising tears the state usunder" at worst.
 
The closest equivalent IOTL I can see for that is the attempts by the French to convert Muslims in their African holdings.

So the answer to "how successful would this be" is "not very" at best, "giant uprising tears the state usunder" at worst.
You're right about that, the Fascist Ethiopian government probably wouldn't be too successful in the sector of converting non-Christians to Coptic Orthodox Christianity which reminds me - how successful is Haile Selassie's efforts at centralization and modernization if he chooses to become fascist?
 
@twovultures, would Emperor Haile Selassie and his "National Ethiopian Party" resemble the Portuguese Estado Novo and/or Greek Metaxist regimes than the original Italian fascist model? How different would it be and what would Ethiopian-style fascism look like?
 
@twovultures, would Emperor Haile Selassie and his "National Ethiopian Party" resemble the Portuguese Estado Novo and/or Greek Metaxist regimes than the original Italian fascist model? How different would it be and what would Ethiopian-style fascism look like?

TBH I don't really know enough about non-Italian/German fascism to answer the question. Though IIRC, the Greek Metaxist regime was both Orthodox and Royalist, so that does seem to be a more natural fit as a flavor of Fascism than the more modernist and less devotedly Christian* Italian Fascists and Nazis.


*obviously there's a lot of argument about this, but Mussolini's aforementioned hostility to religion and the fascination with paganism among some elements of the Nazi party did put them at odds with Christianity.
 
TBH I don't really know enough about non-Italian/German fascism to answer the question. Though IIRC, the Greek Metaxist regime was both Orthodox and Royalist, so that does seem to be a more natural fit as a flavor of Fascism than the more modernist and less devotedly Christian* Italian Fascists and Nazis.


*obviously there's a lot of argument about this, but Mussolini's aforementioned hostility to religion and the fascination with paganism among some elements of the Nazi party did put them at odds with Christianity.
I'd assume Ethiopian-style fascism would be more similar to Metaxas' regime whilst retaining some of the Estado Novo's features.

Haile Selassie would be much more religious than Mussolini, Ethiopian Orthodox Christianity being potentially quite influential in Ethiopian fascism.
 
I imagine Germany would send arms and advisers similar to happened with China
It's plausible, although the surrounding colonial powers wouldn't exactly be too happy with Germans back in Africa but I can see von-Lettow Vorbeck heading a German Military Mission to Ethiopia and Germany sending ww1 surplus equipment. This might not last long enough when Hitler comes to power but Göring could bribe French colonial officials into looking the other way if the Second Italo-Ethiopian War happens similarly to OTL.
 
I doubt he would pull out as Germany needs raw materials and was at odds with Mussolini over Austria until after the Italian conquest of Ethiopia.
Ethiopia doesn't seem too resource-rich to me, although the Germans did provide material support to the Ethiopians throughout the Second Italo-Ethiopian War and didn't stop until 1938 when the Italians finally recognized the German claims to Austria IOTL.
 
Would this Ethiopia be an Italian client state? This would be feasible if Italy only annexed Ethiopia's Tigray and Somali-majority border regions to Italian Eritrea and Somaliland after the Italo-Ethiopian war. A partial "border-change" in 1936 would leave a rump Ethiopia in the Harrar, Amara, Scioa, and Galla-Sidamo governates of otl Italian East Africa. Is it plausible for Mussolini or Balbo to leave a rump Ethiopian fascist state with its own "duce" and rule more indirectly? This Ethiopia would still be economically dependent on Italy and a de-facto Italian colony, but still independent on paper.
 

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Ethiopia doesn't seem too resource-rich to me, although the Germans did provide material support to the Ethiopians throughout the Second Italo-Ethiopian War and didn't stop until 1938 when the Italians finally recognized the German claims to Austria IOTL.

It's not, but when your goal is autarky and the table of available colonizable regions has been picked clean you take what you can get.
 
Would Mussolini support a fascist Haile Selassie?

Possibly; I'm going off a book Mussolini and his Generals here, but a fair share of the motivation for the invasion of Ethiopia was to test out military doctrine and equipment reforms as well as a big propaganda ploy. It's possible he could get that elsewhere if Selassite Ethiopia started wooing/emulating him early on. The man WAS keen on getting his ego stroked, and if Ethiopia is also willing to do something to help Italy's raw material situation (something similar to the Molotov-Ribentrov pact, directly exchanging material for manufactures without Italy needing to tap into her limited currency reserves) I see no reason why he couldent see them as a junior partner.
 
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