WI: Failed Operation Overlord?

What if Eisenhower and others in charge of planning the D-Day invasion of Normandy had taken a fatal risk in the planning of the operation? Maybe they chose to go ahead on a day when the weather took a turn for the worse or the Nazis had had better intelligence. What outcome would this have on the subsequent war? It's unlikely that this would have been sufficient to allow the Nazis to outright win the war, but could it have allowed for conditional surrender on the German's part or allowed the Soviets to grab a larger chunk of Germany?
 
It has been the consensus of the board (as far as I have seen) that Overlord was too well prepared, planned, and executed to fail given everything else remaining the same in 1944. Unless a typhoon appears in the Channel on 6 June, then Allied troops will make it ashore and gain a beachhead. Could it be a bloodier affair? Absolutely. But I simply can not see Eisenhower or any of staff making any error that would be so fatal as to doom the operation. Every detail was meticulously planned for with accurate intelligence to back up that planning.

In any case, Roosevelt, Churchill, and Stalin had agreed (grudgingly in some cases) to unconditional surrender in 1943. Germany was not going to get a second chance to perpetrate a "stab in the back" myth.
 
Have you
It has been the consensus of the board (as far as I have seen) that Overlord was too well prepared, planned, and executed to fail given everything else remaining the same in 1944. Unless a typhoon appears in the Channel on 6 June, then Allied troops will make it ashore and gain a beachhead. Could it be a bloodier affair? Absolutely. But I simply can not see Eisenhower or any of staff making any error that would be so fatal as to doom the operation. Every detail was meticulously planned for with accurate intelligence to back up that planning.

In any case, Roosevelt, Churchill, and Stalin had agreed (grudgingly in some cases) to unconditional surrender in 1943. Germany was not going to get a second chance to perpetrate a "stab in the back" myth.

Have you ever heard the phrase "The best-laid plans of mice and men go oft awry.". In the military it is taught that "The Plan" only is good until the first shoot is fired.
 
Have you


Have you ever heard the phrase "The best-laid plans of mice and men go oft awry.". In the military it is taught that "The Plan" only is good until the first shoot is fired.

Unfortunately for Overlord to fail not one plan but multiple well thought out very robust plans, being carried out by well trained and supported individuals have to go very awry at the same time

Not impossible just very very very improbable

To repeat what m0585 said - the main consensus on this board and others I have been a member of over the years is that Overlord failing is almost if not actually ASB without a number of large PODs
 
Multiple things went wrong with Op Neptune, and Overlord. Major things. The fire support plan had some critical compromises in it. Unexpected reinforcements appeared, severe & unexpected tides, landings 2-3 kilometers off target, large scale communications breakdowns, unrealistic plans for advancing inland, a weather delay scrambling convoys. But at midnight 174,000 allied soldiers were ashore, the beach defense was destroyed & some unexpected advantages gained.
 
Multiple things went wrong with Op Neptune, and Overlord. Major things. The fire support plan had some critical compromises in it. Unexpected reinforcements appeared, severe & unexpected tides, landings 2-3 kilometers off target, large scale communications breakdowns, unrealistic plans for advancing inland, a weather delay scrambling convoys. But at midnight 174,000 allied soldiers were ashore, the beach defense was destroyed & some unexpected advantages gained.

Plus the Luftwaffe kept away, and all the German counterattacks (including a panzer division) stopped dead.
 
There were certain spies who could have squealed, months prior to the invasion. they did not, and thus the deception operations worked. If they do break, the deception can be exposed. Also, as improbable as it is, due to Hitler's supposed fears left over from WW1, a swift authorisation and use of nerve gases on the beachheads would've made the invasion fail.
 
There were certain spies who could have squealed, months prior to the invasion. they did not, and thus the deception operations worked. If they do break, the deception can be exposed. Also, as improbable as it is, due to Hitler's supposed fears left over from WW1, a swift authorisation and use of nerve gases on the beachheads would've made the invasion fail.

Using nerve gas is one of those moves that is a penny wise but pound foolish.
 
Using nerve gas is one of those moves that is a penny wise but pound foolish.
I don't dispute the likelihood of some sort of retaliation. But the invasion would be ruined, surely? Gas masks of the era didn't even shield well against nerve gases. And, did the soldiers come directly carrying those with them? I think they were in some supply ships probably, but since they limit vision and movement, the soldiers didn't have then on face. There would've been a carnage.
 
Have you


Have you ever heard the phrase "The best-laid plans of mice and men go oft awry.". In the military it is taught that "The Plan" only is good until the first shoot is fired.
Have you read the plans for overlord? It was a massive undertaking planned meticulously. It could have gone worse but the Nazis couldn't repel it they simply lacked the resources and manpower. The Allies are coming ashore what changes is how many men do so.
 
There were certain spies who could have squealed, months prior to the invasion. they did not, and thus the deception operations worked. If they do break, the deception can be exposed. Also, as improbable as it is, due to Hitler's supposed fears left over from WW1, a swift authorisation and use of nerve gases on the beachheads would've made the invasion fail.
Where?
All the Nazi spies in Britain were caught - which was easy to do because they could read German messages.
 

EMTSATX

Banned
A nuclear cloud over some German city and a united Germany under Stalin. If you have ever read "Failure at D-Day" by Peter Tsouras it runs through a lot o scenarios. It's a little dry ( in my opinion all his books are as he tends to wargame them out a bit much, but the guy was a staff/plans officer.) But worth the read.

I have read Galveston Bay's excellent series on here (Goring's Reich) and would love to see him take this on.

I think best case for Germany is A) bad weather to hurt allied air and shipping B) Rommel is healthy and present and C) Hitler allows Panzer reserves to be released. D) The Germans accept that this is the main invasion. Even if all that happens the Germans still loose.

Maybe Utah has to be withdrawn. But, keep in mind the British and Canadian's have firm beach heads.
 
Where?
All the Nazi spies in Britain were caught - which was easy to do because they could read German messages.

Johnny Jebsen was a German intelligence officer who was recruited to work for the allies. He aware of the false evidence of agents like Garbo and Popov. He was arrested by the Gestapo in the lead up to Overlord, tortured and later killed.
 
Jedsen knew nothing of the Overlord or Neptune plans. Neither did he have details for all the Double Cross agents. Nor did he know anything about the penetration of the Enigma encryption & ULTRA Still its would have been a problem for the Double Cross operation had he talked.
 
Jedsen knew nothing of the Overlord or Neptune plans. Neither did he have details for all the Double Cross agents. Nor did he know anything about the penetration of the Enigma encryption & ULTRA Still its would have been a problem for the Double Cross operation had he talked.
He apparently could have given info that would ruin the deception operations like Fortitude.
 

trurle

Banned
Well, i am not so sure about the Germany failing miserably to Soviet Union despite operation Overlord (landing in Normandy) failure.

The Operation Overlord have started 6 June 1944.
Operation Bagration (which crushed German forces in Belorussia) started 23 June 1944.

If Overlord would fail decisively and rapidly, Germans can transfer some forces (at least bombers/ground attack aviation) to Eastern Front, improving their fortunes. Given Soviet Union won war with just 20% of manpower reserve, keeping Belorussia in German hands for at least few more months can potentially result in severe manpower shortage (and corresponding drop in offensive capability) of the Soviet Union. I cannot rule out the scenario of Germany still resisting into the catastrophic drought of 1947. Of course, the chances of Germany to get anything besides unconditional surrender after all are zero - not against United States (which was approximately 3 times the war-making potential of Soviet Union or Germany)
 
He apparently could have given info that would ruin the deception operations like Fortitude.

His confession would have exposed those sources as double agents.

This is assuming his interrogators & their supervisors interprete his information correctly. There was a lot of circumtantial evidence the Enigma encryption was compromised, that the many agents in the UK were turned, that the Allies were running elaborate deception operations. For a number of reasons the assorted spy masters, intelligence officers at all levels, and the admirals and generals who used the German intel services did not connect the evidence into the correct picture. Some of the other evidence of problems was considered skeptically as it could have been provided by the Allies as a misdirection. Connected to this is the question of the Abwehr chief suppresing information about operation compromises as part of their political battles with the Gestapo & SS over responsibilities. There is nothing ASB or particalry German about this. The Brits failed to react to increasingly clear evidence their SOE & related operations in the Netherlands were badly compromised. The Germans played them for over a year while the Brit intel chiefs remained oblivious.

First result of Jedsens confesion would be ramping up the internal political battle among the seperate intel services. The operations he specifically named would be considered suspect, but the connection to the others was not clear or obvious. Given how much Hitler & the other nazis were in love with the spy ring in the UK & placed so much weight in its product Jedsen might actually be dismissed as a British deception & ignored.

One of the problems the German intel services had was not all the information they had was bad or Allied controlled. Information from one agent concerning a few others does not make clear what else might or might not be compromised. Connecting a couple turned agents to understanding a Europe wide deception op that covered thousands of bits of information will not happen over night, if it happens at all.
 
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