WI: Failed Dutch Revolt

What would happen if the Dutch failed to revolt. The Spanish were able to prevent it or crush it within a short period off time. Would Austria get all off the low lands upon a time or will Spain be able to not collapse?
 
I don't think it ends up Austrian. I suspect it more likely to end up being ruled by a cadet branch of the Spanish Habsburgs. Probably a mass exodus of the middle class and the protestant upperclass would happen. Look at what happened to Antwerp and other Flemish cities. They lost 1/3 of the population who left the cities when the Spanish recaptured them. They would go to England, Germany and parts of Scandinavia, which will be a mass boon for them, since they would bring knowledge and money, think of it like an early variant of the Hugenots (might they even flee to France and get expelled from France at a later date?)

I suspect a large part of the Netherlands would end up French. Maybe the English end up with part of it (like Flushing or something, maybe part of Holland). After the loss of Calais they tried to gain a foodhold in continental Europe. I suspect part of the north east might end up being part of Münster.

One thing is certain, without an independent Netherlands European and world history will be radically different.
 
We will likely see a several hundred thousand Dutch exodus to most of Protestant Europe. England, Scotland, the Rhineland, the Hanseatic cities, Denmark, Sweden and Poland would likely be the main destination. This would mean a massive transfer of agricultural knowledge, know how and crops, a technological transfer and a transfer of capital to the these regions.

We will likely in the long term see Benelux staying a integrated part of Germany, it will also stay a important economic center even with the loss of these people. It will strengthen the Habsburgs against the Bourbons, Spain and Portugal are likely to stay in union.
 
We will likely in the long term see Benelux staying a integrated part of Germany
I don't know. I personaly don't believe in the inevitability of the formation of Germany, especialy with such an early POD. It is far more likely to be mostly absorbed by France. Without the Dutch Republic, who would be able to stop france? At least in that region.
 
I don't know. I personaly don't believe in the inevitability of the formation of Germany, especialy with such an early POD. It is far more likely to be mostly absorbed by France. Without the Dutch Republic, who would be able to stop france? At least in that region.

Well the rather massive state which lies there. Alone the existence of a united Habsburg Catholic Netherlands, would change the entire political landscape of the HRE and the 30YW may be butterflied away (a few different births would change everything), and even if something like it did happen, it would be significant different with this large Habsburg state in the west and without Spain being spend after the 80 Year War. France are unlikely to get the same position of dominance without OTL 30YW and with the Habsburgs being stronger.

Netherlands served primarily to weaken the Habsburgs, not the Bourbons.
 
Well the rather massive state which lies there.
Spain? NoSpain's day in the sun was over in the 17th century with or without a Dutch rebellion. Spain would not be able to stop France.

Also I don't think you can butterfly away the thirty year war. Well obviously it would be an entirely different kind of war, but there will be a war. The German princes wanted more freedom from the Emperor. A war between the catholics and protestants was inevitable too. Sure it would be very different from OTL 30 year war, but a war will come and it will weaken the Austrian Habsburgs. So no, I don't think they would be able to stop France, the moment France gets its act together. Especialy if England allies with France, which is pretty likely. In the 16th and early 17th century England was prerry pro-France and anti-Habsburgs. It was the glorious revolution that made England switch sides. I suspect in a Netherlandsless timeline, the Habsburgs will be seen as a more important threat to England than France, at least for quite awhile and thus an Anglo-French alliance will continu for longer.
 
We will likely in the long term see Benelux staying a integrated part of Germany, it will also stay a important economic center even with the loss of these people. It will strengthen the Habsburgs against the Bourbons, Spain and Portugal are likely to stay in union.
During the Spanish period (especially after the Pragmatic Sanction of 1549) the Netherlands weren't that strongly tied to the HRE. The Northern Netherlands left automatically despite themselves claiming full legal continuity, while the Spanish Netherlands were always Spanish first, Burgundian Circle second (before they turned Austrian, of course, which made things more certain). Low Countries-'German' ties weren't particularly strong politically. Dynasticly sure, but not politically.

I think Pompejus nit the nail on the head, especially on the political situation. The Spanish Netherlands turning into a de facto hereditary governorship is what almost happened IOTL a few times.
 
Big butterfly producing event.

I am going to assume that the disturbances and put down quickly and efficiently and never gain traction, as opposed the the Spanish winning a long war due to doing something like inventing breech loading rifles hundreds of years earlier.

1. There are no eight years war or its successors, so lots of people who died before reproducing live and lots of people who never come in existence or who die earlier because the war kept them from being executed or dying of some random disease or in some bar brawl. This is true with all PODs but this was a really long war.

2. Much better financial position for the Spanish Hapsburg monarchy. They may fritter it away on some other project, but now they can fritter it away on some other project that changes things. At least one more Treasure Convoy gets through than IOTL too.

3. The Counter-Reformation comes to the northern provinces in the Netherlands as well as the Southern provinces.

4. No Spanish Armada because without England aiding the Dutch rebels there is no real point.

5. The attempt to prevent Henri IV from becoming King of France still happens and may actually have more success.

6. The Spanish probably due more in the Mediterranean against the Turks which probably means several enclaves in North Africa that are eventually Christianized.

7. Amsterdam as a tolerant city where all sorts of smart eccentrics can go and do their thing doesn't happen.

8. The scientific revolution of the 17th century is delayed, reduced, or may not happen at all, same with all those great Dutch schools of paintings.

9. You will get Dutch exiles, particularly in England, so there is a strengthening of the intellectual lives of several Protestant countries.

10. With lots of Calvinist exiles in England and permanently, the English Puritan movement changes. Its probably both stronger and less radical. This affects the English Civil War in ways that are quite unpredictable. Anything from it not happening at all or a permanent Commonwealth and no Restoration are possible.

11. Butterflies hit early New England. The Plymouth Pilgrims are not going to try going to the Netherlands first at a minimum. The situation in England with the Puritans is completely changed, they may not feel any need to leave, they may not be allowed to leave, they may be replaced by Dutch exiles, or things can still develop IOTL.

12. Both the VOC and WIC are gone. That wipes out of history the Dutch settlements in the Hudson Valley, Surinam, the Cape, and Java among other places. Also no assault on the Portuguese Empire. Others, most likely France and England, will settle these places and probably pick off Portuguese colonies as well, but especially if its the French doing it these develop very differently IOTL.

13. Without the examples of the VOC and WIC, there is probably no EIC either, especially as England is spining off in a different direction.

14. No William III able to come over and help overthrow James II.

Other commentators raised the Holy Roman Empire and the Thirty Years War and that is probably the one part of European history in the 17th century relatively unaffected. The Thirty Years War started over Central Europe and the first outside powers to intervene were Scandinavian. The role of the Dutch was to keep the Spanish Hapsburgs occupied, but they intervened fairly effectively anyway, and actually more than held their own against France at first, I really don't think the war and subsequent events go that differently, but Louis XIV by 1700 is probably able to have a frontier further east than IOTL. But note that this assumes that the Spanish are not able to keep Henri IV off the French throne, with butterflies away Louis XIV completely, or extract major territorial concessions, which means greater French success later just reverses the TTL French losses.

So you still get the Treaty of the Pyrenees and associated marriages, however the French dynasty may be Guise and not Bourbon. The Spanish Hapsburg line still fails in 1700. However without the Dutch Republic its hard to see the anti-Bourbon coalition gelling. But again maybe in this situation there is no Bourbon dynasty, no marriages between the Hapsburgs or Bourbons, or for whatever reason Carolos iI leaves his empire to the Austrian Hapsburgs. At this point the butterflies have proliferated so that its hard to see further.

Its plausible in this timeline to have no or a much delayed industrial revolution -and it might start on the Continent this time- due to the effects on the Scientific Revolution and on England. I think the industrial revolution came just in time to save Europe from a nasty case of too many people/ not enough food. Again past 1700 it gets really difficult to see how things unfold.
 
Well you can keep the Netherlands united and then get the OTL situation in which they were given to Isabella Clara Eugenia as dowry and then she and Albert had a living son who became adult and left heirs...
At this point as all Albert’s brothers were childless said son would become also Holy Roman Emperor, Archduke of Austria, King of Bohemia and Hungary so Netherlands will become Austrian...
Or you can butterfly the wedding of Philip II to Mary I of England and have Charles V assign the Netherlands to his elder daughter Maria instead of his son Philip...
 

raharris1973

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With Protestant Europe being the destination of the exodus, those countries stand to benefit. [the size of the exodus will also probably depend a bit on how long the revolt lasts) So we are looking at England, Scotland, the Scandinavian Kingdoms, possibly Switzerland. Poland I am not so sure. The Dutch refugees will have to trust that the Catholic majority ruling authorities and population will keep up their tradition of tolerance. Also, the protestant states of the HRE. Although Dutchmen had great importance for the Polish grain trade and thus many business partners.

I imagine the Protestant states listed benefit from increased knowledge of art, science, aid and shipping. The Protestant states of the HRE benefit also. Could this result in north German littoral states or city-states, like Ostfriesland, Oldenburg, Hanover/Brunswick-Luneburg, Hamburg, Bremen, Lubeck, Holstein, Mecklenburg, Brandenburg and Teutonic Prussia gaining a critical of traders and shippers that they can fill a niche of substance in the global age of discovery around the Caribbean, Americas, Africa, Indian Ocean and Pacific?
 
The size of the exodus would be interesting, its relatively easy to go from "Belgium" to the "Netherlands" and thus more would chose to leav in otl than ITL.
 
With Protestant Europe being the destination of the exodus, those countries stand to benefit. [the size of the exodus will also probably depend a bit on how long the revolt lasts) So we are looking at England, Scotland, the Scandinavian Kingdoms, possibly Switzerland. Poland I am not so sure. The Dutch refugees will have to trust that the Catholic majority ruling authorities and population will keep up their tradition of tolerance. Also, the protestant states of the HRE. Although Dutchmen had great importance for the Polish grain trade and thus many business partners.

In OTL the Dutch had been important Polish trade partners because (a) they did have a merchant fleet and (b) because there was a major grain Exchange in Amsterdam. In the proposed scenario Exchange is gone and with it the whole schema.

Then, of course, keep in mind that the local merchants, artisans, etc. would not necessarily be happy with the newly-arriving competitors and as a result, situation would not necessarily be too rosy. And it is also not clear what would be financial aspect of that exodus: fleeing with a capital is not easy when a big part of that capital is invested into the enterprises and goods which you can't easily take with you.

I imagine the Protestant states listed benefit from increased knowledge of art, science, aid and shipping.

Art aside, I'm not sure if at the time we are talking about the Netherlands had been especially advanced in science and the shipping part would greatly depend upon the local conditions (not too much of a demand in Switzerland or Saxony and there could be serious clashes with the local interests in the places like England or Scotland).


The Protestant states of the HRE benefit also. Could this result in north German littoral states or city-states, like Ostfriesland, Oldenburg, Hanover/Brunswick-Luneburg, Hamburg, Bremen, Lubeck, Holstein, Mecklenburg, Brandenburg and Teutonic Prussia gaining a critical of traders and shippers that they can fill a niche of substance in the global age of discovery around the Caribbean, Americas, Africa, Indian Ocean and Pacific?

Look, at the time we are talking about the sea-going activities within the HRE had been pretty much monopolized by the Hanseatic League. Keeping in mind its inability (in OTL) to deal with the growing competition both on the land and sea routes and its rigid guild-based structure, it seems quite unlikely that the newcomers would make serious difference (adding them to the guilds would not be welcomed by the existing guild members).
The Duchies of Mecklenburg had been too small to make into the major naval/colonial power(s), not sure if in mid-XVI Brandenburg has access to the sea, the Duchy of Prussia too small.

No Dutch circumnavigations until 2nd half of the XVI century (the 1st one 1564 - 98) and it seems that the Dutch geographic discoveries did not happen prior to the end of the XVI and the 1st area was anywhere close to your list: Willem Barentsz reached the the west coast of Novaya Zemlya in 1594 (hence Baternz Sea in the Arctic Ocean) and in 1600 they discovered Falkland Islands. Of course, in 1609 they charted Manhattan.
 
The size of the exodus would be interesting, its relatively easy to go from "Belgium" to the "Netherlands" and thus more would chose to leav in otl than ITL.

Well, OK, by 1600 population of the Dutch Republic was approximately 1.5M (which probably includes all those who fled from the Spanish Netherlands). Which makes "hundreds of thousands" of refugees rather unlikely.

The "crushed revolt" does not mean the extermination policy for all Protestants. In practical terms, Spanish success would be tied to the more flexible policy even because they simply did not have the numbers necessary to achieve a complete control over all rebelling provinces: Alexander Parma was able to gain an upper hand in the South (Belgium) by appeasing the local Catholics and offering reasonable terms (at least a postponed conversion) to the local Protestants. In the predominantly Protestant North even more flexibility would be required: there was simply no way for the Spanish to achieve an overall victory by the purely military means, especially taking into an account the general Dutch advantage on the seas and Spanish desperate financial situation.
 
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