WI: Eyjafjallajokull erupt 1980

I realize this borders on ASB, but who really knows why and when a volcano comes back to life. So let's say Eyjafjallajokull blows thirty years earlier. The skies of Europe is covered with airplane grounding ash as now. I assume the superpowers would be on high alert due to the possibility of a surprise attack under unexpected conditions. Which side would the conditions favor, and how likely would war be?
 
I realize this borders on ASB, but who really knows why and when a volcano comes back to life. So let's say Eyjafjallajokull blows thirty years earlier. The skies of Europe is covered with airplane grounding ash as now. I assume the superpowers would be on high alert due to the possibility of a surprise attack under unexpected conditions. Which side would the conditions favor, and how likely would war be?

More specifics are needed in order answer your question. I presume that you mean a war between NATO & the Warsaw Pact nations, correct? Also, why 1980 and when in 1980 does the eruption occur? Why were airplanes grounded? In 1980 this probably not going to happen unless the eruption is much more violent or untill a plane or 2 crashes due to engine failure while flying through the ash cloud. Then the question becomes whose plane(s) and what is the immediate response to the crash(es)? If the only variation from OTL is the eruption of Eyjafjallajokull, then war is unlikely.
 

Blair152

Banned
I realize this borders on ASB, but who really knows why and when a volcano comes back to life. So let's say Eyjafjallajokull blows thirty years earlier. The skies of Europe is covered with airplane grounding ash as now. I assume the superpowers would be on high alert due to the possibility of a surprise attack under unexpected conditions. Which side would the conditions favor, and how likely would war be?
Instead of Mount St. Helens? Not a clue.
 
More specifics are needed in order answer your question. I presume that you mean a war between NATO & the Warsaw Pact nations, correct? Also, why 1980 and when in 1980 does the eruption occur?
30 years is a round number. I postulate that the disruption to air operation would place both sides on alert because the change to the balance of air power.

Why were airplanes grounded?
Ash. Same as now.
 
I'm surprised more people havent made posts about this event.:rolleyes:

What Im curious about it is when the next big brother is going to blow?
 
Which side would the conditions favor, and how likely would war be?

The Soviet Union, and pretty near zero. You've got to give someone a motivation for going to war ... a volcano blowing up wouldn't do it. Now, if they did go to war in 1980, the advantage would be with the Warsaw Pact even without the volcano, given the deficiencies in the post-Vietnam U.S. military and the European drawdowns of the 1970s.

Ash what's happening now wouldn't keep aircraft from flying, but it'd keep them from flying high ... which wasn't in the cards for most aircraft by this point, anyhow. SAM coverage and all was pretty good at hitting high-altitude aircraft, hence the deployment of ultra-low-altitude fighter-bombers by NATO.

Now, if you'd said something like 1946, the volcano would have a really big impact on the way that war was fought. OTL, the U.S. was planning to rely on strategic bombing and atomic bombing to balance the Soviet advantage in numbers. The volcano would preclude that by denying high altitudes to American bombers. Good idea for a POD, though.
 
How to pronounce Eyjafjallajökull - the easy way.

How in the hell do you say Eyjafjallajokull anyway?

In IPA: /ˈeiːjafjatlajœːkʏtl̥/

In English: EI (stressed, and hold the EE for a bit) - yah - fyaht - lah - yök (for ö - take the "e" in "bet", and then move your lips into the shape of a circle) - tl. Much better now?
 
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