WI: Eyjafjallajökull continues to erupt

At the time - late April 2010 - I can recall fears that the Icelandic volcano would continue erupting indefinitely. What if it did? Let's assume that the volcano continues erupting until the present day. I'm more interested in the immediate effects, as in those within the first six months, but feel free for longer-term speculation too. If anyone here can predict the extent of the ash cloud (ie would it wrap round the entire northern hemisphere?) then feel free to throw that in too.

Some things are obvious: with Europe grounded, the world would very quickly be dropped back into a severe recession, and we wouldn't see recovery even until today. (This would probably result in a Republican president in 2012 as Obama would probably have no credentials to his name.) This economic downturn, and the issue of European exports and imports being hit, would probably result in a big hit to living standards worldwide, particularly in Europe, where shortages of fresh food and maybe even rationing would occur. How this affects the Eurozone crisis and EU unity in general is something I'm not sure about. No doubt there'd be a host of changes, mostly negative, and a few quirks too - would the increased travel times for teams trying to get to the London 2012 games interrupt athletes' training schedules, altering medal share (particularly in Britain's favour)? There are many things that could result.

Does anyone have any ideas to share?
 
My understanding is that the initial shutdown was an (understandable) over-reaction putting safety first.

If it had continued, there would have been more analysis of just where was affected, of which altitudes were affected and so forth. And commercial airflight would have been adjusted to fit in with the detected ash levels.
 
How much cargo is transported by air vs. rail, boat or truck?

I imagine the spare capacity would be enough, few things must be delivered by air. Europeans would travel by train.
 
Can volcanoes erupt indefinitely? We need a geologist here!

i could imagine that when it continuously erupt, there is less pressure on the magma/lava. so clouds would come less high.

for high clouds, you would need a volcano that erupts intermittent (like once a week).

i could imagine, they would put a lot of effort in predicting the paths of the clouds, and regulate air traffic accordingly. at beginning it would be a nuisance, but everybody would get used to it.

the dust & sulphur oxides the volcano spits out are more worrying though. they could mess with climate in the long run. And i would imagine the stuff would not only go towards europe, at certain levels there must be wind blowing towards north-america.
 
Can volcanoes erupt indefinitely? We need a geologist here!

Depending how you define indefinately.

For example the Decan volcanoes and the Siberian traps (though both of these are extreme examples) erupted for thousands of years without a pause as far as we can tell and that ain't much.

As for more recent period there are volacanoes in the world that have been active regularly for the past 30 years if not more.

So I don't see a problem with long Ey erupting for a decade or two, after all it is above a hot spot just like Hawai.
 
Yes, but could it keep erupting at its OTL level for that length of time? Seems like a job for an Ekranoplan to me, if you want something faster than a ship that's able to cover large stretches of water.
 

Daffy Duck

Banned
Comment

I think the bigger question is....what if Katla had erupted right after the eruptions in 2010? Katla is right next door and typically erupts right after this one. That would have caused a lot more havoc Having a VEI 6 eruption is a lot bigger than a VEI4 eruption. More like a Mt Pinatubo eruption in Iceland
 
I think the bigger question is....what if Katla had erupted right after the eruptions in 2010? Katla is right next door and typically erupts right after this one. That would have caused a lot more havoc Having a VEI 6 eruption is a lot bigger than a VEI4 eruption. More like a Mt Pinatubo eruption in Iceland

With respect, could I ask that you do that as a separate WI thread? I'd agree that there are plenty of interesting results to find there too but right now I'm interested in the less destructive and more simply inconvenient issues with a continued Eyja eruption.

In response to you guys... would ekranoplans be entirely realistic? Could they really be developed that fast, especially in such a short and economically limited timeframe? I know it's a cliche, but could airships - or more likely modern Hybrid Air Vehicles, which have been developed privately in Britain for a while and might receive a government grant to accelerate their progress - be utilised for freight?

And to clear things up, I meant 'indefinitely' as in 'at least two years', so perhaps we could argue that the volcano keeps erupting until, say, 2015?
 
Top