WI: European discovery of the Americas prevented by changes in the 1300s/1400s?

I don't think the Marinids could have kept Al-Andalus alive for very long. Continued Muslim control of the Straits of Gibraltar would have led most of Western Europe to Crusade it into oblivion.
Good point, it may not last forever. But for the purposes of delaying European colonization, the Marinids don't need to revive al-Andalus permanently, only long enough to change the fate of Portugal and Castile.

If the Iberians are busy conquering, resettling, and consolidating Andalusia and Algarve, their navigational voyages will be delayed by many years.

With larger, later European crusades in Iberia, the Iberian kingdoms may be focused on fighting off resulting French and English influence, or there may be more extensive wars between Portugal, Castile, and Aragon.

How does that interact with the near rabid search by the Europeans for a quicker route to Asia and it's spices? You think these changes would counter that force enough to delay the discovery by that long?
I think so. They could always follow the classic Eurasian-Indian Ocean trade route, through Egypt.

Before the Ottoman conquest of Egypt, The Venetians participated in a strong economic partnership with the Mamluks for hundreds of years. In the later years of this trade, the Venetians planned on cooperating with the Mamluks to build a canal in the Suez.

Indeed, the Khalij (Grand Canal of Cairo) already existed connecting the Nile to the Red Sea during the Nile's seasonal floods. With further Venetian-Mamluk investment, a more permanent canal probably could have been dredged up, providing a direct connection to the Indian Ocean.

Some European powers, notwithstanding, would object to Venice's status as middleman between the European states and the Islamic world. But they need not go westward to bypass the Venetians. If trans-Atlantic exploration is delayed just 20-30 years, the Safavid Empire has revived the Silk Road, enabling a southern overland route; and the Tsardom of Russia has begun to conquer the steppe, permitting a northern overland and riverine route.

With direct routes to Asia, one sea-based and two land-based, and local silk production having emerged in France and Italy, only the countries most dedicated to exploration would bother to invest in new speculative routes in the Atlantic. But with Portugal being out of the game for about a century, England having forgotten the Hy-Brasil legend, and Castile and Aragon probably dedicated to Mediterranean crusades, chances are that the European discovery of the New World could be delayed by 150-200 years.
 
Good point, it may not last forever. But for the purposes of delaying European colonization, the Marinids don't need to revive al-Andalus permanently, only long enough to change the fate of Portugal and Castile.

If the Iberians are busy conquering, resettling, and consolidating Andalusia and Algarve, their navigational voyages will be delayed by many years.

With larger, later European crusades in Iberia, the Iberian kingdoms may be focused on fighting off resulting French and English influence, or there may be more extensive wars between Portugal, Castile, and Aragon.


I think so. They could always follow the classic Eurasian-Indian Ocean trade route, through Egypt.

Before the Ottoman conquest of Egypt, The Venetians participated in a strong economic partnership with the Mamluks for hundreds of years. In the later years of this trade, the Venetians planned on cooperating with the Mamluks to build a canal in the Suez.

Indeed, the Khalij (Grand Canal of Cairo) already existed connecting the Nile to the Red Sea during the Nile's seasonal floods. With further Venetian-Mamluk investment, a more permanent canal probably could have been dredged up, providing a direct connection to the Indian Ocean.

Some European powers, notwithstanding, would object to Venice's status as middleman between the European states and the Islamic world. But they need not go westward to bypass the Venetians. If trans-Atlantic exploration is delayed just 20-30 years, the Safavid Empire has revived the Silk Road, enabling a southern overland route; and the Tsardom of Russia has begun to conquer the steppe, permitting a northern overland and riverine route.

With direct routes to Asia, one sea-based and two land-based, and local silk production having emerged in France and Italy, only the countries most dedicated to exploration would bother to invest in new speculative routes in the Atlantic. But with Portugal being out of the game for about a century, England having forgotten the Hy-Brasil legend, and Castile and Aragon probably dedicated to Mediterranean crusades, chances are that the European discovery of the New World could be delayed by 150-200 years.
The Silk Road never went away, the Atlantic Europeans simply wanted to cut off the middleman or become themselves the middleman and that won't go away IATL.
 
Good point, it may not last forever. But for the purposes of delaying European colonization, the Marinids don't need to revive al-Andalus permanently, only long enough to change the fate of Portugal and Castile.

If the Iberians are busy conquering, resettling, and consolidating Andalusia and Algarve, their navigational voyages will be delayed by many years.

With larger, later European crusades in Iberia, the Iberian kingdoms may be focused on fighting off resulting French and English influence, or there may be more extensive wars between Portugal, Castile, and Aragon.


I think so. They could always follow the classic Eurasian-Indian Ocean trade route, through Egypt.

Before the Ottoman conquest of Egypt, The Venetians participated in a strong economic partnership with the Mamluks for hundreds of years. In the later years of this trade, the Venetians planned on cooperating with the Mamluks to build a canal in the Suez.

Indeed, the Khalij (Grand Canal of Cairo) already existed connecting the Nile to the Red Sea during the Nile's seasonal floods. With further Venetian-Mamluk investment, a more permanent canal probably could have been dredged up, providing a direct connection to the Indian Ocean.

Some European powers, notwithstanding, would object to Venice's status as middleman between the European states and the Islamic world. But they need not go westward to bypass the Venetians. If trans-Atlantic exploration is delayed just 20-30 years, the Safavid Empire has revived the Silk Road, enabling a southern overland route; and the Tsardom of Russia has begun to conquer the steppe, permitting a northern overland and riverine route.

With direct routes to Asia, one sea-based and two land-based, and local silk production having emerged in France and Italy, only the countries most dedicated to exploration would bother to invest in new speculative routes in the Atlantic. But with Portugal being out of the game for about a century, England having forgotten the Hy-Brasil legend, and Castile and Aragon probably dedicated to Mediterranean crusades, chances are that the European discovery of the New World could be delayed by 150-200 years.



they could, but there is a reason why the Europeans in the original time line didn't
 
The Silk Road never went away, the Atlantic Europeans simply wanted to cut off the middleman or become themselves the middleman and that won't go away IATL.

No, but the Silk Road was bloody EXPENSIVE with the costs of overland transportation and the sheer number of middlemen, each adding their own mark-up to the price of the good. Its a simple fact that long-distance transportation is dramatically cheaper over water than over land... particularly if your company/nation controls a string of supply points/duty-free ports along the trade route. Controlling the Indian Ocean trade is the way to get the most of the highly-valued goods at the cheapest price into Europe... allowing you to sell it with the vast majority of the mark-up going to yourself and making a bigger profit even while selling at a lower price than the merchants plying the traditional routes (provided you can mitigate the risks of piracy somehow... its a higher risk/higher reward strategy, but those risks can be mitigated by naval technology and more advanced commercial-financial tools)
 

Vuu

Banned
Dušan lives longer and teaches Uroš to be more competent. Serbia completely absorbs Byzantium and prevents the Turks from expanding further, so trade can go through Constantinopol (now Carigrad) without problem (insane Ottoman taxes)

Also, have Russia free itself from the Mongols earlier and subdue the area so land trade via Siberia is easier

There you go, no need for finding new ways. You could say that the European surplus population is ending up in Africa, radically changing modern day
 
Dušan lives longer and teaches Uroš to be more competent. Serbia completely absorbs Byzantium and prevents the Turks from expanding further, so trade can go through Constantinopol (now Carigrad) without problem (insane Ottoman taxes)

Also, have Russia free itself from the Mongols earlier and subdue the area so land trade via Siberia is easier

There you go, no need for finding new ways. You could say that the European surplus population is ending up in Africa, radically changing modern day


actually lots of needs as overland trade is bloody expensive, especially when you consider you have to pay the middlemen
 
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