WI; European Coalition invades the Continental United States in 1914
- Thread starter spoonzandforkz
- Start date
However, this would require all of Europe - on the verge of another great war and sitting on a history of conflict - to suddenly get along, work together, and decide America is terrible.
That would require a kind of mind control, which would be...
That would be fun. Even if you do away with all the losses of European warships with no conflict from 1939 AND add their planned building programme as at 1939/40...
The combined RN/KM/FM/RM would barely match the Two Ocean Navy and what else the US would build as it sees this coalition heading its way. Even with the IJN added to the mix .
Honestly by 1944 America may just be able to defeat Europe after like 5 years...
We have argued the definition of ASB before. And something that starts needing more and more and more PODs most of them more improbable. then the last and at the same time requires one country to be criminally negligent in its defense for decades may not be ASB as such but it is the next best thing and will NEVER happen.
Somehow we have to have Germsny wanting to invade the US. They have to gather the troops and the ships while A) Not cluing the US in and be not destroying there economy (good luck with that). Meanwhile in order to have the ability to project the force accross the entire ocean they need to have some sort of staging base to atvleast refule the shorter range ships. So they have bases withing striking distance of the US abd have had for a while.
It requires the US to have something Germany wants enough to start and intercontinental war over but that the US would be willing to give up after a cuty or two is occupied. Because ut IS ASB if you think Germany pre 1915 can pull off a true invation and win the war with the limited shipping options available to it at the time. The US took several years to stage enough stuff on England and that was with a LOT more transpirt shipping and Better shipping. Germany is not pulling this off. This makes the forbiden sea mamal look like you are just crossing a pond.
It also reqires Germany to be dumb enough to believe it CAN pull off the invasion. So rhe Germans are drinking the same lead paint the US has been drinking for the last several decades
But… Even though there is a potentially more hostile country then England withing striking range of the US somehow this US is still going yo insist on bot building any real defenses. Something that was controversial in the day when we only had England as a threat.
And then. as whatever starts the bad blood between the US and Germany starts to simmer the US once again does nothing yo protect itself.
Or in an alternative scenario The US actively starts a war with Spain knowing full well it will bring in Germany and there more powerful fleet. Why on gods green earth would the US attack a country knowing it would bring a war it cant win? the WHOLE POINT of the Spanish American war was to gain things not yo loose them. And it was the US that started that mess no Spain so the US sinply dosnt go to war unless the leadership is more insane then Hitter.
I am sorry but the first idea is so unlikely and requires so much to change and yet requires the US to be the dumbest country ever followed closly by Germany that for all intents and purposes it is ASB.
Somehow we have to have Germsny wanting to invade the US. They have to gather the troops and the ships while A) Not cluing the US in and be not destroying there economy (good luck with that). Meanwhile in order to have the ability to project the force accross the entire ocean they need to have some sort of staging base to atvleast refule the shorter range ships. So they have bases withing striking distance of the US abd have had for a while.
It requires the US to have something Germany wants enough to start and intercontinental war over but that the US would be willing to give up after a cuty or two is occupied. Because ut IS ASB if you think Germany pre 1915 can pull off a true invation and win the war with the limited shipping options available to it at the time. The US took several years to stage enough stuff on England and that was with a LOT more transpirt shipping and Better shipping. Germany is not pulling this off. This makes the forbiden sea mamal look like you are just crossing a pond.
It also reqires Germany to be dumb enough to believe it CAN pull off the invasion. So rhe Germans are drinking the same lead paint the US has been drinking for the last several decades
But… Even though there is a potentially more hostile country then England withing striking range of the US somehow this US is still going yo insist on bot building any real defenses. Something that was controversial in the day when we only had England as a threat.
And then. as whatever starts the bad blood between the US and Germany starts to simmer the US once again does nothing yo protect itself.
Or in an alternative scenario The US actively starts a war with Spain knowing full well it will bring in Germany and there more powerful fleet. Why on gods green earth would the US attack a country knowing it would bring a war it cant win? the WHOLE POINT of the Spanish American war was to gain things not yo loose them. And it was the US that started that mess no Spain so the US sinply dosnt go to war unless the leadership is more insane then Hitter.
I am sorry but the first idea is so unlikely and requires so much to change and yet requires the US to be the dumbest country ever followed closly by Germany that for all intents and purposes it is ASB.
Cryostorm
Monthly Donor
Would they though? I mean, if Europe has decided to combine forces to knock out the most powerful nation in the western hemisphere in what would look like a neocolonial retaking of North America then how long till this juggernaut turns south? Because Latin America combined at this time is weaker than the US, not even including most weapons and munitions were purchased from the US. There is a good argument that once the US falls the entirety of the American nations fall soon after.
The British Empire decides that the USA is the main threat to itself than the Reich. This wouldn't actually be that hard; make Roosevelt et al more bellicose, while the Kaiser et al are more emollient towards London [after all, it could be said Berlin's biggest pre-war mistake was forcing the UK into the Franco-Russian camp with a series of boneheaded moves.] Throw in other 'irritants' - from the American-Irish lobby to British suspicions that Washington is plotting to annex Canada and it's possible the situation could get very bad very quickly.
That looks rather like War Plan Red. But I disagree with the main assumption - that the war would start in North America.
The USA in 1914 has more commitments than simply the continental US. There's the Pacific Islands [including Hawaii], the Philippines, Alaska, the Panama Canal, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and the forces within Cuba and I think Haiti.
In Washington's case, while it may like to invade Canada it will surely be intimidated by the sheer geographic size. They may also may feel the need to station forces on the Mexican border to deter any 'adventures'. They need to buy time; not just to conscript men and make matériel, but to design the matériel to make and to train a large amount of NCOs and junior officers to make this army competent.
In this case, the Americans may decide that the Philippines and possibly Alaska are indefensible. Any 'extra' forces [if there is any] must go into defending the Caribbean, especially the Canal.
On the European side, an attack on the Philippines will be the first major one; it's close enough to their holdings to use 'colonial' troops. This will be easier if the American's don't try to rush reinforcements to it. I think it's reasonable enough to assume it will either fall or at least be 'neutralised'. Then what?
The British – the unofficial leaders of the alliance – will first of all worry about Canada. More than anything else, they'll desire to keep Halifax and Vancouver as bases, and ideally also hold onto the Canadian 'industrial core' which is a rough triangle between Quebec - Toronto – Thunder Bay. They'll primarily worry about the USN being able to blockade said Canadian bases [which will be critical for any 'American Invasion']. I suspect the RN will get very interested very quickly in either blocking or perhaps even capturing the Panama Canal; if the Americans lose this, the USN will be cut in half.
The next phase all depends on the general 'war aims' of each side. I'll tentatively suggest that for the Americans, they'd like to see a) Canada merged into the USA b) Bermuda annexed, c) enemy acceptance of the Monroe Doctrine and - if possible - d) the transfer of various Pacific/Caribbean Islands to US jurisdiction. For the Europeans it will - I suspect - be the complete shearing-off of all American holdings past the continental USA. There would also be issues for 'indemnity payments' due to the almost-certain seizure of the billions of assets, debt etc by Washington [In RL, British investment in the USA in 1914 was $7 billion alone]. Direct conquest of American states I suspect won't be on the table, believing that it will simply be 'more bother than they're worth' - but I could see them trying to exploit divisions, such as seeing if succession by neo-Confederates / New England / California / Utah etc is possible.
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Riain
Banned
If there is a threat to the U.S. in the years leading up to 1914 the US will react by increasing it's own readiness, and that reaction means we cannot answer the question. The turn against the US has to be sudden, unexpected and lead to war quickly, that way the question becomes one about the correlation of forces and what the combatants might do.
True - it might even butterfly into TR returning to the White House in '12 on a 'Strong America' ticket. However, it's quite possible that the Americans mis-read the series of increasingly 'annoyed notes' from the British because amongst other things, they're terribly British in tone and the Americans don't realise this [after all, there has been intra-English 'communication confusions' in RL].
It wasn't intended to be another War Plan Red but more a variation of Defence Scheme No 1 with *a lot* more troops. Each color represents either a different line of attack or path of control while beige represents the maximum occupation of the United States prior to the Battle of Lincoln (Nebraska) and its almost simultaneous counterpart the Battle for Seattle, three years after the war began.
Checking the European advance before it could further threaten the new capitol at Denver, the resurgent American forces would begin a very gradual reconquest of their country with the final battle on American soil being at Niagra Falls alost ten years to the day after the war began.
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Issue is, I don't see any sane military trying that. They'd lack the numbers to protect their supply lines, the retreating Americans could tear up rails and with the technical levels of war in 1914, a bunch of farmers with hunting rifles and horses [of which there were millions of all three] could make decent ad-hoc mounted infantry against rear echelon troops. Even a bunch of middle-aged townsmen with bicycles and revolvers could pose an issue to say, a supply unit.
The biggest issue, however is naval. The USN Atlantic Fleet will not allow Canadian reinforcements, meaning the RN Grand Fleet will have to 'force the issue'. Either side then may expect it to be 'decisive' but we know a century later it's more likely to look like Jutland - a draw. Chances are, the USN will at best destroy a few ships but the rest of the enemy fleet will be allowed to proceed to Halifax. And then both sides will stare at each other.
The biggest issue, however is naval. The USN Atlantic Fleet will not allow Canadian reinforcements, meaning the RN Grand Fleet will have to 'force the issue'. Either side then may expect it to be 'decisive' but we know a century later it's more likely to look like Jutland - a draw. Chances are, the USN will at best destroy a few ships but the rest of the enemy fleet will be allowed to proceed to Halifax. And then both sides will stare at each other.
If the US has 3-4 years to prepare and know it's coming, then they'd have a chance. Otherwise, their poor preparedness for conflict means the war would be a curbstomp, to the point guerilla actions would be unlikely (depends what the peace is of course- I doubt white American citizens would get made into slaves, though Jim Crow would likely be kept by most European powers)
A draw puts the USN into a corner and again pits Europa United against the US. The map above anticipated the USN not being able to effectively challenge the RN/HSF/et al in the North Atlantic, hence the earlier comment about modular ship-building/ sub-building as well.
I think this may be plausible with an 1868 PoD, 1897 PoD, or even a late January/early Feburary 1899 PoD, but unless the Agadir crisis or something like it becomes a focal point having this scenario in 1914 from a PoD after January 01, 1900 would be hard to pull off. It's not impossible but to do so one would probably (a) delay such a war until 1917 at the earliest or (b) have to invoke the ego of Kaiser Wilhelm II somehow. Or both.
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Which is why I'm judging that not many nations would have the desire and/or ability to 'join in' on this dogpile.
Yes, Japan may be induced to join the coalition in the promise of Hawaii as spoils. The Germans may be bribed with promises of the Philippines and/or Puerto Rico. But it's unlikely the former would consent to Califonian landings and the latter will desire to keep most of their forces in the Reich to guard against the Russians and French.
But the others? France has little to gain save if it wants Hispaniola back. Spain has lots to gain [it's old empire] but it's showing later on in the Rif War show just how terrible her forces are. The Dual Monarchy will be too distracted by the tensions in the Balkans, and I'm not sure Italy or the Netherlands would have any motivation to join at all. Russia won't join; her forces are halfway through being re-equipped after the Russo-Japanese War and may feel like they're not ready. The Turks are too chaotic, the Chinese this and the fact Americans are somewhat 'less unpopular' than other Europeans. Out of the 'rest of world', the only other nation which could assist could be Mexico.
Yes, Japan may be induced to join the coalition in the promise of Hawaii as spoils. The Germans may be bribed with promises of the Philippines and/or Puerto Rico. But it's unlikely the former would consent to Califonian landings and the latter will desire to keep most of their forces in the Reich to guard against the Russians and French.
But the others? France has little to gain save if it wants Hispaniola back. Spain has lots to gain [it's old empire] but it's showing later on in the Rif War show just how terrible her forces are. The Dual Monarchy will be too distracted by the tensions in the Balkans, and I'm not sure Italy or the Netherlands would have any motivation to join at all. Russia won't join; her forces are halfway through being re-equipped after the Russo-Japanese War and may feel like they're not ready. The Turks are too chaotic, the Chinese this and the fact Americans are somewhat 'less unpopular' than other Europeans. Out of the 'rest of world', the only other nation which could assist could be Mexico.
The continental United States is a massive, spread-out region larger than Europe, with geographical boundaries and obstacles that make it excruciatingly difficult to invade in the long term. While in 1914, the majority of the population was centered on the East Coast, there are still a large number of cities spread out across millions of square miles. A complete conquest of it, from a the perspective of a European coalition, involves crossing the Atlantic, seizing the massive urban centers of the east coast, crossing the Appalachian mountains, passing through the dense forests and swamps of the southern United States as well as the heavily populated, industrial Ohio basin, passing through the wide, easily defensible Mississippi river, crossing the Great Plains, passing through the enormous Rocky Mountains and various deserts of the western United States, sweeping through California, which would require either an excruciating campaign through the Sierra Madres or force the invaders into a thin front line as they march north through the state, and finally securing the mountainous, heavily forested Pacific Northwest. During this time, they would be required to occupy an area larger than Europe, with a large, extremely hostile and heavily armed population. They would have to manage supply lines that would be thousands of miles long, cross through a large number of significant geographical boundaries, and be subject to sabotage along any point.
Victory against the United States is definitely possible, especially for such a monstrously huge coalition. Seizing much of the eastern seaboard and forcing the United States into a large number of concessions is entirely doable, if time-consuming and bloody. But a total victory in which the vast majority of the Continental United States is occupied is virtually impossible with 1914 technology and logistics without some crazy bloodlust and complete dedication to the destruction of the United States. Needless to say, it would take an enormous amount of time and absurd levels of casualties.
Victory against the United States is definitely possible, especially for such a monstrously huge coalition. Seizing much of the eastern seaboard and forcing the United States into a large number of concessions is entirely doable, if time-consuming and bloody. But a total victory in which the vast majority of the Continental United States is occupied is virtually impossible with 1914 technology and logistics without some crazy bloodlust and complete dedication to the destruction of the United States. Needless to say, it would take an enormous amount of time and absurd levels of casualties.
Indeed. Instead of the war it would be much more interesting to get an explanation about how that big European coalition formed (especially how they managed to overcome their differences and put their own disputes on hold) and how stable it is.
Exactly, if you're going to do something like this, at least make it interesting, advance the timeline 30 years, and put it in the proper part of the forums.