WI Eugene McCarthy didn't run in 1968?

This is a great POD! :)

Without McCarthy making the first move, no, I don't think Bobby Kennedy will get into the race. He almost waited too long as it was.

President Johnson will be the de facto nominee of the Democratic Party and rather easily at that. He had strengths where Humphrey didn't and vice versa. Dick Nixon is still probably the nominee of the Republican Party. 1968 will be an interesting election and still probably a very close one.
 
LBJ gets the Democratic Nomination and Nixon narrowly beats him by a margin similar to 1968 OTL. Humphrey ITTL could very well end up the nominee in 1972 if Johnson takes the fall in '68.
 
Johnson gets the nomination and gets totally smashed by Nixon. Nixon also probably gets some real coattails from this victory.
 
LBJ gets the Democratic Nomination and Nixon narrowly beats him by a margin similar to 1968 OTL.

Nah. Johnson was just too hated to nearly win.

Humphrey ITTL could very well end up the nominee in 1972 if Johnson takes the fall in '68.

Humphrey will likely be associated with the 1968 defeat, so I doubt it.

I think we could very well see a New South candidate like Terry Sanford win the nomination in 1972.
 
Nah. Johnson was just too hated to nearly win.



Humphrey will likely be associated with the 1968 defeat, so I doubt it.

I think we could very well see a New South candidate like Terry Sanford win the nomination in 1972.
Johnson's poll numbers were still higher than Carter's in 1980 IRC and Carter still ran, I also don't see how LBJ would sit it out without McCarthy running and doing as well as he did. I don't think RFK would run without McCarthy running either, so who else would run?

Fair point on Humphrey, maybe this scenario produces enough of a butterfly for RFK to not get assassinated and run in 1972 or 1976, and win the nomination.
 
Johnson's poll numbers were still higher than Carter's in 1980 IRC and Carter still ran, I also don't see how LBJ would sit it out without McCarthy running and doing as well as he did. I don't think RFK would run without McCarthy running either, so who else would run?

Looks like I misworded it. Johnson would in the nomination for certain. I don't think Johnson would have gotten within two points of Nixon as Humphrey was able to do. I expect something like:

Screen Shot 2016-10-05 at 4.51.18 PM.png


Nixon/Agnew (R): 46.7%
Johnson/Humphrey (D): 39.4%
Wallace/LeMay (AI): 13.5%

And such a large victory may give Nixon some real coattails.

Fair point on Humphrey, maybe this scenario produces enough of a butterfly for RFK to not get assassinated and run in 1972 or 1976, and win the nomination.

If 1972 is anything like OTL, I see Kennedy sitting it out and running in 1976. Depending on the Republican nominee and whether Watergate comes out, Kennedy can win
 

Stolengood

Banned
I feel like LBJ would call the bombing halt earlier -- he was very indecisive about supporting Humphrey due to his behind-closed-doors arguments with Johnson against the war, and for most of the summer even privately semi-hoped Nixon would win. He announced the halt very late - I feel he would do it three or four months earlier if he were the candidate, effectively changing the playing field for the last quarter of campaign season and putting Nixon at more of a disadvantage for longer.

It'd still be very close, though.
 
Johnson doesn't run due to his heart problems. But he waits until the last minute, after the primaries have started, to announce this.

Waiting does two things. First it keeps him from lame duck status a little longer. Second there is no way anyone other than Humphrey can organize a viable campaign.

Of course IOTL, Johnson did wait until after the primaries had started to announce he wasn't running. As Clark Clifford complained in his memoirs, the timing make it look like he was dropping out because McCarthy was beating him. People still think that today. But actually the timing of the announcement meant that RFK didn't get into the race until it was too late, which effectively handed the nomination to Humphrey, and kept Johnson from being a lame duck for a little longer.

So McCarthy not running apparently changes nothing, except to make LBJ look a little better. But it does change things quite a bit. Because now RFK isn't assassinated. And Humphrey could pick Kennedy as his running mate, though this is unlikely. A Humphrey-Kennedy ticket probably wins, even if Kennedy is assassinated after being nominated for VP.
 
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