What effects might there be on Eastern Africa if Somalia attacks Kenya's Somali-inhabited territories?Siad Barre could try for another Ogaden war. Alternatively, he could attack Kenyan somaliland.
What effects might there be on Eastern Africa if Somalia attacks Kenya's Somali-inhabited territories?Siad Barre could try for another Ogaden war. Alternatively, he could attack Kenyan somaliland.
It likely will be pretty bad for Somalia in the war at least. Kenyan somalis have better living standards than ogaden, so not all will welcome the force. Thus is will be a nasty fight. In addition, relatively stable kenya might try to push into somalia itself.What effects might there be on Eastern Africa if Somalia attacks Kenya's Somali-inhabited territories?
Why would the Kenyans launch a counter-invasion into Somalia?It likely will be pretty bad for Somalia in the war at least. Kenyan somalis have better living standards than ogaden, so not all will welcome the force. Thus is will be a nasty fight. In addition, relatively stable kenya might try to push into somalia itself.
The Somalis in Kenya voted to join Somalia upon independence, so the desire to unite with Somalia was definitely present.Why would the Kenyans launch a counter-invasion into Somalia?
That doesn't necessarily answer my question? Why would Kenyan forces invade Somalia?The Somalis in Kenya voted to join Somalia upon independence, so the desire to unite with Somalia was definitely present.
Oh, apologies, I meant to quote the post above yours.That doesn't necessarily answer my question? Why would Kenyan forces invade Somalia?
As a counter to the somali invasion?That doesn't necessarily answer my question? Why would Kenyan forces invade Somalia?
Would they be successful? I doubt it.As a counter to the somali invasion?
That is a topic for debate. Soviet aid can prevent a major push, but if Barre is as impulsive as OTL, they just might. Keep in mind, the reason why Haliemariam didnt push in, was because he said when the invasion started they would not invade in response. More importantly, he was dealing with Eritrea, so once somalis were pushed out, eritrean revolt had to be crushed.Would they be successful? I doubt it.
He also didn't push into Somalia because the Somalis had withdrawn their regular forces and heavy guns but also left a sizable contingent of regular Somali soldiers to aid the WSLF in the Ogadeni insurgency which wasn't crushed until Operation Lash in 1981.That is a topic for debate. Soviet aid can prevent a major push, but if Barre is as impulsive as OTL, they just might. Keep in mind, the reason why Haliemariam didnt push in, was because he said when the invasion started they would not invade in response. More importantly, he was dealing with Eritrea, so once somalis were pushed out, eritrean revolt had to be crushed.
If Ethiopia hardens the border earlier, we might see Haile Selassie's government actually attempt to integrate the Ogadeni Somalis into Ethiopia proper but your comment on re-orienting the Somali economy away from Ethiopian territory might actually butterfly the Ogaden War away, depending on how well Somalia's economy does. I have my doubts in the Derg coming along as they did IOTL but it isn't impossible for some form of a military coup d'état to occur around the same time it did IOTL - in regards to an earlier Somali invasion, I don't think it'd be too different from the initial months of OTL's Ogaden War. If Somalia invades around the time the Derg is beginning their purges of the senior officer corps, then Ethiopia actually might do better in the war with Somalia with the Derg hurriedly sending these same officers to the frontlines.With an earlier war ending in an Ethiopian victory, we likely see Ethiopia harden the border earlier. This of course will help push a military coup. But once Barre or one of his compatriots is in power, does Somalia immediately go for a rematch? Likely not. So there's some years where Somalia will be sucking on the teat of great power (likely Soviet) aid and preparing for a rematch... That also going to give time to perhaps re-orient the Somali economy away from nomadic herding. That could make Somalia less likely to attack Ethiopia again... Though, if the Derg come along and start gutting Ethiopian military power, Somalia could well find the target too tempting, meaning an earlier Somali invasion in the 70s - if that happens before the Derg cosy up to the Soviets, things could get VERY interesting.