WI: Ethiopian-Somali War in 1964?

This war would take place before the large amount of Soviet assistance that lead to the Somali military being rather powerful

As I stated earlier Siad Barre or some other military leader
I really think the whole region might start to crumble in this scenario.
 
With Ethiopia it could either highly destabilize from earlier coup, have scenarios I mentioned above, (amha or democratic) or even federalization. Somalia, is also at crossroads. Barre could be smart and use the humiliation to urge a revenge, or he could create an earlier somali civil war. It could be messy, or not.
 
With Ethiopia it could either highly destabilize from earlier coup, have scenarios I mentioned above, (amha or democratic) or even federalization. Somalia, is also at crossroads. Barre could be smart and use the humiliation to urge a revenge, or he could create an earlier somali civil war. Clanism is the main issue with the first option, and with somali civil war I would say 50 50. It could be messy, or not.
 
With Ethiopia it could either highly destabilize from earlier coup, have scenarios I mentioned above, (amha or democratic) or even federalization.
The coup is 4 years over at this point not to mention this war would likely resemble a shorter late 1990s Eritrean-Ethiopian war.
he could create an earlier somali civil war. It could be messy, or not.
It took 13 years of Clan based politics and harsh oppression not to mention a genocide to cause the Somali civil war. In this case Siad barrie would present himself as the savior of Somalia from the incompetent and failed republic
 
The coup is 4 years over at this point not to mention this war would likely resemble a shorter late 1990s Eritrean-Ethiopian war.
Are you referring to the common perception that the Eritrean-Ethiopian War of 1998-2000 was a "WW1-style war with Vietnam-era weaponry" or a modern war?
 
I was thinking more in the sense of being around the border area rather then a large and rapid war of movement.
Y'know, I actually didn't think about this but who actually begins the Ethiopian-Somali War? If Somalia invades, I can see it becoming a war of movement in the vast deserts that make up the Ogaden (or Hararghe province at the time) but if Ethiopia begins it, your scenario sounds more plausible - the former does seem more interesting.
 
How homogeneous do you think Somalia is, ethnically and clan-wise?
Ethnically, it's damn near 100%. But clan-wise I could see Somalia cleaving into parts. The German Empire didn't split into its duchies, baronies and counties after they lost World War I, though, and I think common hatred of Ethiopia would unite them all.
 
Ethnically, it's damn near 100%. But clan-wise I could see Somalia cleaving into parts. The German Empire didn't split into its duchies, baronies and counties after they lost World War I, though, and I think common hatred of Ethiopia would unite them all.
Good point but I think it ultimately depends on who begins the war in 1964.
 
The coup is 4 years over at this point not to mention this war would likely resemble a shorter late 1990s Eritrean-Ethiopian war.

It took 13 years of Clan based politics and harsh oppression not to mention a genocide to cause the Somali civil war. In this case Siad barrie would present himself as the savior of Somalia from the incompetent and failed republic
Siad Barre could try for another Ogaden war. Alternatively, he could attack Kenyan somaliland.
 
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