What reason do they have to reform after a successfully war and the prestige that comes with it?How come?
What reason do they have to reform after a successfully war and the prestige that comes with it?How come?
Could we see deficiencies in the Ethiopian military being revealed during an Ethiopian-Somali War and thus, it convinces Haile Selassie to reform the Ethiopian military which might have some affects on Ethiopia itself?What reason do they have to reform after a successfully war and the prestige that comes with it?
Ethiopian military would still get wreaked once the Dreg come to powercould this Ethiopian-Somali War expose the problems within the Ethiopian military, causing a series of reforms and reorganization that prepares Ethiopia for an alternate Ogaden War if Somalia chooses to come back for revenge under a different government.
More likely to just expel them or force large amount across the border like the derg didso that the regime of Haile Selassie works at an integration process to Ethiopianize the Somali-inhabited regions to the east?
Wouldn't the Derg's rise to power be butterflied away with this POD? And what makes you think the Ethiopian military would "still be wrecked"?Ethiopian military would still get wreaked once the Dreg come to power
More likely to just expel them or force large amount across the border like the derg did
Selassie basically had full US protection. Somalia might not have the best ending in this case.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1964_Ethiopian-Somali_Border_War
I was thinking of more ideas for Ethiopia TLs in the future and remembered this little gem - the Ethiopian-Somali Border War of 1964. What could happen if efforts at negotiation had been unsuccessful and both of these countries had gone to war over the disputed Ogaden region? What effects might this have on both Ethiopia and Somalia?
I was referring to the fact Ethiopian actions during and the aftermath of the Ogaden war lead to a large number of Somalians being forced to flee the regionI've never heard of this before - when did the Derg attempt to expel the Ogadeni Somalis from Ethiopia? Force them across the border, I'm not even sure about that.
PurgesAnd what makes you think the Ethiopian military would "still be wrecked"?
Again, how do we know the Derg still comes to power ITTL?Purges
Monarchy is unlikely to solve the issues that it's downfallAgain, how do we know the Derg still comes to power ITTL?
Us wouldn't intervene directly but would rather send military suppliesSelassie basically had full US protection. Somalia might not have the best ending in this case.
I'm not so sure about that - the reforms in the Ethiopian military that are caused by the recent war might actually trigger some reforms in Ethiopia's political scene.Monarchy is unlikely to solve the issues that it's downfall
Perhaps the Ethiopian military realizes its reliance on American equipment and attempts to find alternative sources of advisors alongside arms?Us wouldn't intervene directly but would rather send military supplies
Depends on if the reforms or not happen. Haile Selassie might decide that any military reforms could lead to his overthrow opt not to do any or with a victory decide they are not needed. Alternatively military reforms might not lead to changes in the political scene.I'm not so sure about that - the reforms in the Ethiopian military that are caused by the recent war might actually trigger some reforms in Ethiopia's political scene.
I don't think Haile Selassie is so paranoid as not to allow for military reforms to go through but the potential effects on Ethiopia's political scene interests me - perhaps his own command of the Ethio-Somali War leads to Ethiopia managing to barely win and let it sink in that it's time for him to actually abdicate?Depends on if the reforms or not happen. Haile Selassie might decide that any military reforms could lead to his overthrow opt not to do any or with a victory decide they are not needed. Alternatively military reforms might not lead to changes in the political scene.
This is roughly 4 years after the 1960 coup attempt so it is a possibilityI don't think Haile Selassie is so paranoid as not to allow for military reforms to go through
If the 1960 coup attempt or the events of 1974 didn't lead to him abdicating I doubt this will.perhaps his own command of the Ethio-Somali War leads to Ethiopia managing to barely win and let it sink in that it's time for him to actually abdicate?
As far as I know, no.Is there a catalog of Horn of Africa TLs/other discussions somewhere?
It won't let Ethiopia collapse. Halie Selassie was vitally important. I do agree that an Ethiopian victory wont butterfly ethiopian problems. Indeed, it might lead to a much nastier region in general. Derg likely still rise, but an unstable somalia might be worse than Barre.Us wouldn't intervene directly but would rather send military supplies
Ethiopia is not going collapse in this war.It won't let Ethiopia collapse.
It's likely the 1969 coup is moved up by a few years rather then the country falling into civil war.Derg likely still rise, but an unstable somalia might be worse than Barre.
What makes you think so?Ethiopia is not going collapse in this war.
It's likely the 1969 coup is moved up by a few years rather then the country falling into civil war.
This war would take place before the large amount of Soviet assistance that lead to the Somali military being rather powerfulWhat makes you think so?
As I stated earlier Siad Barre or some other military leaderWho'd take power in an earlier coup?