WI: Ethiopian-Egyptian War?

Israel won't help Ethiopia beyond basic condemnation of any bombing. Israel has a lot to lose and nothing to gain from a hostile Egypt.
Egypt cannot do anything, even if it wanted to is the reality. The once time Egypt got even close to stalemating, was anwar sadat, and israel just gave them back the sinai because warring was dumb. But keep in mind, "hostile egypt" probably wont be a thing after this. In fact, "Egypt" wont really be a thing. The political crisis in egypt would likely get so out of control, Egypt would be thrown into civil war with different generals vying for control.
 
Egypt cannot do anything, even if it wanted to is the reality. The once time Egypt got even close to stalemating, was anwar sadat, and israel just gave them back the sinai because warring was dumb. But keep in mind, "hostile egypt" probably wont be a thing after this. In fact, "Egypt" wont really be a thing. The political crisis in egypt would likely get so out of control, Egypt would be thrown into civil war with different generals vying for control.
Didn't Egypt only get back the Sinai as a result of UN pressure?
 
People seem to forget, the military rules egypt. Destroy their military institutions, you destroy civil institutions as well. Its why Morsi got outed.
 
Egypt cannot do anything, even if it wanted to is the reality. The once time Egypt got even close to stalemating, was anwar sadat, and israel just gave them back the sinai because warring was dumb.
I'm sure Israel would love to see Hamas with backing of Egypt and a new border that has defend and new large hostile military that has be taken into count for any military operations and would require the expansion of the IDF.
The political crisis in egypt would likely get so out of control, Egypt would be thrown into civil war with different generals vying for control.
No at worse Sisi will be overthrown in the coup. Given how Egypt is set a civil war is unlikely.
 
What happens to the Copts in this scenario? Does the Patriarch of Alexandria potentially flee to Ethiopia?
I doubt that would occur, these type of strongmen force religious figures to be their puppets, but should Egypt lose, anti copt violence may occur. The biggest concern will be egyptian generals fighting over the remains of the egyptian republic.
 
Keep in mind: Egypt has had a sinai insurgency for 4 years, and it has failed to deal with daesh
When I say paper tiger, it is not lack of training or equipment. It is incompetency of central command.
 
The biggest concern will be egyptian generals fighting over the remains of the egyptian republic.
Yet Egypt didn't fall into civil war during the Arab spring when other nations did.

Keep in mind: Egypt has had a sinai insurgency for 4 years, and it has failed to deal with daesh
When I say paper tiger, it is not lack of training or equipment. It is incompetency of central command.
Why would they want a hostile Egypt in the first place. What does Israel gain with a major headache another war with Egypt would be and any subsequent occupation of the Sinai and Gaza along with a break in relations with Jordan and the gulf states or just a hostile border in general.
 
Yet Egypt didn't fall into civil war during the Arab spring when other nations did.


Why would they want a hostile Egypt in the first place. What does Israel gain with a major headache another war with Egypt would be and any subsequent occupation of the Sinai and Gaza along with a break in relations with Jordan and the gulf states or just a hostile border in general.
Okay. Let me repeat my points. But first I will address yours. It was because mubarak had the slight mark of dignity left to resign. Had he held on, expect a war would have happened.
I have already said Egypt would collapse. There would be no hostile egypt left. Civil war egypt would be ideal. For example, while Assad pretended to be anti israel, he was the least likely to actively attack them. But civil war even with salafis would be favorable.
The Arab spring didnt destroy egypts military. A war with israel would. And much has changed since 1973. The military has only gotten more, and more entrenched. It wouldn't be syria 2.0, but different, a war between generals fighting over the "throne." Sisi has his fair share of rivals, and yes sisi is very incompetent. Mubarak was bad but had common sense.
 
I have already said Egypt would collapse. There would be no hostile egypt left.
Collapse due to what, Even if Egypt bombed the dam. I doubt the Sanctions would be hard enough to lead to state collapse. Even if it did it wouldn't happen in days and would stop the moment Sisi is dethrone.
but different, a war between generals fighting over the "throne
You would get at worse a series of coups. What ideology are these generals promoting to get support for a civil war.
Civil war egypt would be ideal.
They would still have to deal with hostile factions in the Sinai and an open Gaza border on the Egyptian side.
 
Collapse due to what, Even if Egypt bombed the dam. I doubt the Sanctions would be hard enough to lead to state collapse. Even if it did it wouldn't happen in days and would stop the moment Sisi is dethrone.

What I am saying, is given the evidence I have provided, Egypt would lose the war. And the dam is a very sensitive issue among Egypts generals. Should the very unlikely event occur it be a success, El sisi might be remembered as a great statesmen, or a butcher (giving i already gave you evidence of the mass flooding, which could prompt un intervention.) However, its unlikely they even get passed Sudan, and with the warming of ethiopian eritrean relations, Eritrea will likely not allow free passage.

You would get at worse a series of coups. What ideology are these generals promoting to get support for a civil war.

No. There does not need to be ideologies. Look at Somalia, besides al shabab, its competing warlords, look at Libya, besides daesh and al qeada, its also apolitical warlords.

They would still have to deal with hostile factions in the Sinai and an open Gaza border on the Egyptian side.

Okay? That is really no problem. They have dealt with the same such issue in Syria and the golan. Israel might even set a buffer in an egyptian civl war, or recruit copts as allies. Even if the whole of Egypt fell to salafis, and somehow stability remained, Israel would eat egypt alive in any way.
posted this wrong.
 
With all due respect, I recommend you read the sources/do some research on the GERD dam. It is surrounded by anti air batteries, and you didnt even seem to know there were air defenses at first. If it is such an easy victory like you are going at, Egypt would have done it by now, simply by looking at history of the nation since nasser.
 
With all due respect, I recommend you read the sources/do some research on the GERD dam. It is surrounded by anti air batteries
I did but we been arguing about an Israeli intervention on the side of Ethiopia in any Egyptian-Ethiopian conflict and an Egyptian civil war
It is surrounded by anti air batteries, and you didnt even seem to know there were air defenses at first.
I didn't know how modern they are and how is it relevant to our current discussion.
 
I did but we been arguing about an Israeli intervention on the side of Ethiopia in any Egyptian-Ethiopian conflict and an Egyptian civil war

I didn't know how modern they are and how is it relevant to our current discussion.
Sorry if I came off as insulting. We will have to agree to disagree. I don't think we can convince each other, so I will finish this by saying I have to respectfully disagree.
 
To get back to the topic, if Ethiopia and Egypt were to go to war with one another, what effects would there be internationally?
 
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This is a very realistic future history scenario consider water use disputes between the countries of the Nile River, provoked in part by Ethiopia's Renaissance dam. Add in Sino-American intrigue around the red sea oil routes and the south sudanese civil war hot-spot and you could have a regional war or a proxy conflict between the US and China.

If Sudan tries to stay neutral, the conflict would develop as a purely air war with bombing raids on Egyptian and Ethiopian infrastructure. However, violations of Sudanese, South Sudanese, and Eritrean airspace may prompt other countries to take a side in the conflict if they have a large enough military and some tangible gains from joining.
 
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