WI: Ethiopian-Egyptian War?

Ethiopia and Sudan wouldn't let Egyptian planes get to eritrea. Air defense is all over there, they are prepared for possibility. If such a crazy feat would be pulled off, El sisi would have done it already for personal glory. What likely would happen is planes get shot down, Egypt gets condemned, and El sisi is unseated in a coup. Assuming they magically got past air defenses, El sisi would find himself in a UN tribunal for drowning 3 million Sudanese and southern Ethiopian peasants.
No. Especially with the thawing in relations. Eritrea is also Africa's North Korea, keep that in mind. Such a move would lead to good causes beli for action against Eritrea.
In addition to this, wouldn't you see Ethiopia use this as an excuse to invade and annex Eritrea?
 
Ethiopia and Sudan wouldn't let Egyptian planes get to eritrea. Air defense is all over there, they are prepared for possibility.
They would fly over the red sea no need to go over Sudan or Ethiopia to reach Eritrea.
Air defense is all over there, they are prepared for possibility.
Does Ethiopia even have the air defenses to fight against Egypt's air force ?
El sisi would find himself in a UN tribunal for drowning 3 million Sudanese and southern Ethiopian peasants.
Source
 
They would fly over the red sea no need to go over Sudan or Ethiopia to reach Eritrea.

Does Ethiopia even have the air defenses to fight against Egypt's air force ?

Source
https://allafrica.com/stories/201408250683.html
https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/egypts-limited-military-options-stop-ethiopian-dam-project
http://www.tigraionline.com/articles/ethiopian-air-defense-sam.html

Ethiopia has strong relations with israel. Also keep in mind these articles are outdated, systems have been improved. AS for drowning 3 million peasants, it should be obvious why that would require a UN tribunal and be a war crime.
 
"the Egyptian Airforce could hit the Renaissance Dam with extended fuel tanks mounted on fighter jets like Rafael or F-16 block 52 but there are huge risks & limitations to such an air strike. First of all, the Ethiopians generals take the military threat posed by the Egyptian army very seriously specially after ex-president Morsi discussed on live TV the military option with his advisers. It's no secret that the dam site is completely surrounded by anti aircraft batteriesready for any attacking fighter jets. That would mean the Egyptian jets would have to take out these batteries first before hitting the dam and the time gap between the 2 air strikes (1st strike to take out the batteries, 2nd to take out the dam) should be really minimal i.e, only minutes. Accurate "military" Satellite images are required to locate these batteries a day or two before the planned strike, which Egypt lacks. Asking a foreign country to supply such images would risk exposing the whole operation. If the airforce decides to attack the dam directly without taking out the air batteries that protect the dam, it would be suicidal for the Egyptian pilots and many aircrafts would be brought down by anti aircraft missiles. We have to factor in the economic situation also which is extremely important. The Egyptian economy has been taking major blows manifested in the dwindling income of the Suez canaldespite massive investment "8 billion dollars" and the rise of the Dollar against the Egyptian Pound. Simply put, Egypt is BROKE and can not afford to go to war and risk sanctions imposed by the EU/US on already a declining economy which basically survives on foreign aid from the Gulf states. If the economy collapses, there would be huge demonstrations and possibly a 3rd revolution. The Ethiopian governmentknows all of that very well and that's why they declined many requests to reduce the size of the dam or to make any modifications to the original design of the dam. But, on the other hand, if the dam construction is completed and the water flow to Egypt is significantly reduced -"which depends on how fast Ethiopia wants to fill up the huge artificial lake"- the average Egyptian will start to feel the pressure of water scarcity and rising prices of water, not to mention the possible drought of thousands of hectares of fertile land. That would eventually lead to riots on the streets and also a possible 3rd revolution. Either way, the current Egyptian government is in a very bad situation on the domestic and the foreign fronts. If it strikes the dam, they lose foreign "EU/US" diplomatic/financial support which it desperately needs and if it lets the dam with its current design be completed, it'll pay a very heavy price at home and risks being overthrown by the people. One thing for sure, no one wants to be in its situation."
This sums it up.
 
It makes much more sense to stir up tension in Ethiopia. The TPLF government is very paranoid about that. They called the Oromo unrest an "arab plot." however with the current democratic reforms, most ethiopians are unified, so egyptian tactics are limited. It is best to just save the water, desalinate, and improve wastewater management.
 
Doesn't mean they would somehow get involved

I was asking for source that stated that bombing the dam at certain point during it's building would result in a major flood killing millions
On Israel, I am saying they likely have some defense systems from there (israels are the best in the world).

Uhh.. On flooding its rather obvious. This article mentions that, and brings up the how the floods coup even REACH EGYPT. https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/egypts-limited-military-options-stop-ethiopian-dam-project
It achknowledges the possibility, but its simply highly difficult.
 
You think Israel wouldn't take the chance to support Ethiopia, a long-time pro-Israel ally, in order to destabilize the Egyptian regime and gain more influence in the Red Sea?
I don't know, but Israel I am sure has given Ethiopia some air defense. Ethiopia takes it very seriously hence why the dam is surrounded by AA
 
The truth is, even the most pessimistic guess still gives egypt 60% nile water. Egypt wants 90% However they should just invest in desailination imo.
 
What about Israel?
There’s no guarantee Israel would join in on a war like this, although perhaps if it coincided with another Israeli Arab War (such as 1967 or 1973), Ethiopia could pontentially use it as an opportunity to strike at Egypt. Egypt couldn’t handle a single-front war OTL, so I doubt Egypt would win a two front war against Israel and Ethiopia.
 
There’s no guarantee Israel would join in on a war like this, although perhaps if it coincided with another Israeli Arab War (such as 1967 or 1973), Ethiopia could pontentially use it as an opportunity to strike at Egypt. Egypt couldn’t handle a single-front war OTL, so I doubt Egypt would win a two front war against Israel and Ethiopia.
While I agree Israel isn't guaranteed to join a war, I can definitely see Israeli support for Ethiopia. I wonder what might happen in the aftermath of such a war?
 
Egypt does not want a war, nor does Ethiopia. Hence why negotiations occur, both have populations that are ready to protest and demand change, the most likely case is a no one wins scenario. Really, this dam is the only source of tension. Water. The future cause of wars. Otherwise they share common anti terror goals.
 
Uhh.. On flooding its rather obvious. This article mentions that, and brings up the how the floods coup even REACH EGYPT. https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/egypts-limited-military-options-stop-ethiopian-dam-project
It achknowledges the possibility, but its simply highly difficult
From your article
Cairo would probably prefer to hit it while it is under construction. But it also has to be careful not to hit the dam too early, because then Ethiopia may not be fully deterred from restarting the project.
I asked at what point during either the building of the dam or it's filling would result in a major flood.
 
Israel won't help Ethiopia beyond basic condemnation of any bombing. Israel has a lot to lose and nothing to gain from a hostile Egypt.
 
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