WI: Ethiopian-Egyptian War?

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After talking with @Dan Yampton and making a series of pics like the one above, I started to think - what if Egypt attempted to destroy the GERD and Ethiopia ended up declaring war on Cairo? What could be the effects of the Ethiopian-Egyptian War? Who would ultimately win?
 
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Sudan would probably side with Ethiopia. Egypt might try to funnel aid to Juba, but given what a mess South Sudan is, that won't amount to a hill of beans in a regional war.
 
Ethiopia in my opinion would no doubt win. I have upset Egyptian aquanitences with this opinion, but Egypts military is a paper tiger. There is a reason why Ethiopia does not submit to Egyptian demands - Attacking would be suicide, getting past Sudan and such. The world would take the side of the defenders, and likely results are Sudan gets that disputed territory, and Egypt is subject to humiliation. Empty threats have been made for years. Still, it is an interesting idea. I think that Islamists would take it as a sign of weakness and attack Sisi for being weak and the copts for being traitors.
 
Really there is a reason why El Sisi asked Ahmed to "promise" not to take too much water - really nothing Egypt can do. Egypt should probably actually invest in Drip Irrigation and desalination, which they are starting to do, but threats are not helping them get a case for more share of the water.
 
Ethiopia in my opinion would no doubt win. I have upset Egyptian aquanitences with this opinion, but Egypts military is a paper tiger. There is a reason why Ethiopia does not submit to Egyptian demands - Attacking would be suicide, getting past Sudan and such. The world would take the side of the defenders, and likely results are Sudan gets that disputed territory, and Egypt is subject to humiliation. Empty threats have been made for years. Still, it is an interesting idea. I think that Islamists would take it as a sign of weakness and attack Sisi for being weak and the copts for being traitors.
Could we see Ethiopia becoming a dominant force in Northeast Africa if Ethiopia does win?
Really there is a reason why El Sisi asked Ahmed to "promise" not to take too much water - really nothing Egypt can do. Egypt should probably actually invest in Drip Irrigation and desalination, which they are starting to do, but threats are not helping them get a case for more share of the water.
Interesting, no?
 
If war somehow broke out. It wouldn't be much of a war as Egypt would likely just attempt bomb the Dam from Eritrea and call it a day.
Ethiopia and Sudan wouldn't let Egyptian planes get to eritrea. Air defense is all over there, they are prepared for possibility. If such a crazy feat would be pulled off, El sisi would have done it already for personal glory. What likely would happen is planes get shot down, Egypt gets condemned, and El sisi is unseated in a coup. Assuming they magically got past air defenses, El sisi would find himself in a UN tribunal for drowning 3 million Sudanese and southern Ethiopian peasants.
 
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