WI: Ethiopia doesn't receive Eritrea after WW2?

Let's say that the UK opts to support an independent Eritrean state over what it fears as a resurgent Ethiopia under Haile Selassie's regime and thus, the Republic of Eritrea is established in 1947-48. What effects could this have on Ethiopia and the rest of the Horn of Africa?

EDIT: I'm primarily looking for what would happen if Ethiopia remains landlocked in the aftermath of World War 2.
 
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Let's say that the UK opts to support an independent Eritrean state over what it fears as a resurgent Ethiopia under Haile Selassie's regime and thus, the Republic of Eritrea is established in 1947-48. What effects could this have on Ethiopia and the rest of the Horn of Africa?

Eritrea will be richer and will probably be a Parliamentary Democracy.


Ethiopia will demand sea access somehow. One option might be the port of Zeila in the westernmost section of British Somaliland. Another option may be Ethiopia getting Italian Somaliland.
 
Eritrea will be richer and will probably be a Parliamentary Democracy.

Ethiopia will demand sea access somehow. One option might be the port of Zeila in the westernmost section of British Somaliland. Another option may be Ethiopia getting Italian Somaliland.
Anything else about how TTL's Eritrea might look?

I doubt it, considering Ethiopia was already attempting to hold onto its pre-war Somali territories against British attempts at convincing Ethiopia to cede them to a Greater Somali state but I was more thinking of having Ethiopia remaining landlocked.
 
Anything else about how TTL's Eritrea might look?

I doubt it, considering Ethiopia was already attempting to hold onto its pre-war Somali territories against British attempts at convincing Ethiopia to cede them to a Greater Somali state but I was more thinking of having Ethiopia remaining landlocked.

After being occupied by an Axis Power for a decade and getting nothing for it territorially from said power, I don't think it's that far off to think the Ethiopians will get some kind of sea access.
 
but what do you think would've happened if Eritrea was declared independent and Ethiopia remained landlocked?
I would expect a border war at some point if the the border isn't figured out before Independence. Other then that if Ethiopia ends up at war with Somalia and relations are hostile with Eritrea, Ethiopia will lose.
 
I would expect a border war at some point if the the border isn't figured out before Independence. Other then that if Ethiopia ends up at war with Somalia and relations are hostile with Eritrea, Ethiopia will lose.
The border might be strictly established upon pre-1935 borders with Eritrea. Also, why might you think TTL's Ethiopia will lose to Somalia?
 
Wasn't Djibouti hostile to Ethiopia during the Ogaden war

Infrastructure isn't there
Djibouti wasn't hostile to Ethiopia during the Ogaden War AFAIK.

Wouldn't we see Haile Selassie attempting to develop the necessary infrastructure to avoid reliance on any one country?
 
Still but I imagine Dire Dawa would be the primary target in any invasion of the Ogaden,cutting off Ethiopia rail connection to Djibouti.

There's the issues of cost and political will
It was but the Somalis were unable to actually capture and hold the city.

Could these be resolved by Haile Selassie's government?
 
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Cost of building and maintaining a railroad and road line.The cost of training people to repair,maintain, and operate.There also a matter of economic viability as it would more expensive to ship to through places such as Kenya and Ethiopia can not afford the cost of subsidizing everything being sent through.
 
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