WI: Ethiopia and Japan cemented their relationship

Benevolent

Banned
Open question, what if Japan's Ethiophiles and Ethiopia's Japanizer obsessed intellectual class had been able to successfully tie the two nations with a union from the Japanese nobility and Ethiopian royal family?

As trade partners they had been supporting one another greatly and there were even talks of mass migration of Japanese farmers and artisans to spearhead a sort of non-European process of "modernization" before WWII.

Maybe if it was dialed back a few decades into the 19th century but I guess seeing the domino's fall the way they did doing so might have to be ASB but I guess I'm wondering what is the limit just before one gets into that territory?
 
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yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
Ethiopia was a much larger mess than Japan ever was. It was a multi-ethnic, multi-religious feudal tribal combo, and it was a miracle Ethiopia survived as an independent kingdom as long as it did (a miracle called Adwa).
 

Benevolent

Banned
Ethiopia was a much larger mess than Japan ever was. It was a multi-ethnic, multi-religious feudal tribal combo, and it was a miracle Ethiopia survived as an independent kingdom as long as it did (a miracle called Adwa).

Okay but I am talking about the recorded desires to build bridges/economies/technologies between Japan and Ethiopia.

I'm aware of Ethiopia's history but I don't think a moment of Italian rule would have done much to its legacy.

Guess people aren't into non-europeans working together to undermine White Imperialism.
 

Cueg

Banned
Okay but I am talking about the recorded desires to build bridges/economies/technologies between Japan and Ethiopia.

I'm aware of Ethiopia's history but I don't think a moment of Italian rule would have done much to its legacy.

Guess people aren't into non-europeans working together to undermine White Imperialism.
Its important you mention that because that "undermining (of) white imperialism" would be the impetus by which the process of modernization would occur.

In regard to the process itself, we know that Japan had an advantage in terms of literacy. The question one must ask is how important the aforementioned was when it came to industrialization.

I Don't forsee the arbitary concept of race being a hinderance so long as there's another concept in place to create a sense of unity, a necessary component when a society undergoes a rapid change. The struggle against the "West" could, quite easily, provide that. Ethiopia (Axum?) put up one hell of a fight in otl without any serious undertaking of modernization. With the right conditions, I see no reason why they couldn't if a foreign power, like Japan, is willing to help them along.
 
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I think the first step before this is Pan-Asiaism, which was supported by many intellectuals in China, Korea and Japan from the 1880s to 1910(when Japan annexes Korea). By the looks of it neither Japan nor Ethiopia were really in positions to try anything OTL, Japan was extremely busy trying to gain Britain's favour at the time. Maybe an earlier Anglo-Japanese security alliance and a different Fashoda Incident allows room for an earlier beginning to Japan-Ethiopia relations TTL?
 
I don't think there would be a royal union -- Japan had been absorbing white racial attitudes for decades, and the religion problem (Christian Ethiopians, divine Japanese Emperor) would be a major sticking point.

Now, what I could see is Japan helping out or supporting Ethiopia as part of a larger anti-European alliance. Of course, this alliance would itself be imperial, but Ethiopia could be in East Africa what Japan tried to be in Asia.

All of this is contingent on Ethiopian stability; unlike Japan, Ethiopia at the time was riven with religious and political conflict, generated by nearly-autonomous princes. If these conflicts are stopped or crushed, Ethiopia could have a decade or three of military advancement before the conflict between the Japanese bloc (Japan, Ethiopia, maybe Thailand, even a Euro country) and a European imperial bloc.

I'd guess we'd see the Entente defending a weakened China (France and Britain also have colonies to defend) vs. Japan, Ethiopia, Thailand, and independence movements in Indonesia and India. Germany would be a key European ally at this point, and I could imagine German industrial and military aid helping buff up Ethiopia.

The Soviets at this point would be neutral. Italy would be a wild-card, probably French leaning. I don't think there would be a European war; Germany would have no southern ally and would be surrounded on all flanks. Not to mention Hitler could be butterflied away.

Ultimately, I think this would end up less as a World War and more like the Cold War; Japan gaining influence in the post-colonial world as France and Britain bleed to death defending Empire.

Soviets would probably be limited without a world war to give them traction; I see them probably trying to carve out a puppet or sphere in China and supporting Communist revolutions in Korea and elsewhere. Heck, if America stays aloof we could see a Russo-Japanese Cold War over the post-colonial sphere, although a less imperial America means that our brand of democracy loses less of its luster.

The long-game would basically revolve around which models and spheres the post-colonial world adopted. Europe is less burnt out but probably less relevant politically; America is probably neutral but facing Latin American dissent, with some friends scattered, big on capitalism; Japan has their sphere but faces independence movements itself, and the Soviets fund radicals and slowly watch their economy fall apart (although Japan's economy wouldn't be much better).
 
Okay but I am talking about the recorded desires to build bridges/economies/technologies between Japan and Ethiopia.

I'm aware of Ethiopia's history but I don't think a moment of Italian rule would have done much to its legacy.

Guess people aren't into non-europeans working together to undermine White Imperialism.

No, it's just that in Ethiopia civil war had been started for less, much much less. Even Hailè Selassiè needed decades to modernize to a certain degree the nation and he was a magnificent bastard that faced a lot of violent opposition.

Finally, Abyssinia is a 'little' out of japan reach even in the 30's, before 1900 is basically in another galaxy for any meaningfull purpose.
 
The hardest part of this, of course, is Ethiopia centralising power and lifting itself to a strong military power early on.

What might work is an isolated, early-19th or even late-18th Ethiopian POD that slowly affects East Africa, but still allows for Meiji, etc.

If Ethiopia has stable Solomonids by the late 1870s, rather than a bunch of warlords, that'd probably help it out re: centralization.
 

Benevolent

Banned
Its important you mention that because that "undermining (of) white imperialism" would be the impetus by which the process of modernization would occur.

In regard to the process itself, we know that Japan had an advantage in terms of literacy. The question one must ask is how important the aforementioned was when it came to industrialization.

I Don't forsee the arbitary concept of race being a hinderance so long as there's another concept in place to create a sense of unity, a necessary component when a society undergoes a rapid change. The struggle against the "West" could, quite easily, provide that. Ethiopia (Axum?) put up one hell of a fight in otl without any serious undertaking of modernization. With the right conditions, I see no reason why they couldn't if a foreign power, like Japan, is willing to help them along.

There was literacy in Ethiopia, what advantage does Japan's literacy have to the former?

Race was actually used a lot in this situation, actually if you take the time to read on it you'll see that has a lot to do with this whole relationship.

Don't say race is arbitrary in the late 19th and 20th century, it's not accurate at all especially given the fact that it was Japanese right wing groups who supported Ethiopian-Japanese intermarriage at the royal level and pushed the notion of Ethiopians being "Asiatic".

This is fully within the boundaries of trying to undermine white imperialism, the language itself on both sides being such.

Screenshot_2015-11-02-14-47-21_1.jpg
 

Benevolent

Banned
I think the first step before this is Pan-Asiaism, which was supported by many intellectuals in China, Korea and Japan from the 1880s to 1910(when Japan annexes Korea). By the looks of it neither Japan nor Ethiopia were really in positions to try anything OTL, Japan was extremely busy trying to gain Britain's favour at the time. Maybe an earlier Anglo-Japanese security alliance and a different Fashoda Incident allows room for an earlier beginning to Japan-Ethiopia relations TTL?

Great food for thought, you are correct that the whole Japan-Ethiopian alliance stems from Pan-Asian rhetoric so yeah so far I totally dig the direction of what you're saying.

thank you for you're comment :)
 
There was literacy in Ethiopia, what advantage does Japan's literacy have to the former?

Race was actually used a lot in this situation, actually if you take the time to read on it you'll see that has a lot to do with this whole relationship.

Don't say race is arbitrary in the late 19th and 20th century, it's not accurate at all especially given the fact that it was Japanese right wing groups who supported Ethiopian-Japanese intermarriage at the royal level and pushed the notion of Ethiopians being "Asiatic".

This is fully within the boundaries of trying to undermine white imperialism, the language itself on both sides being such.

While there was some public support from the masses with fighting "whitey" this did not translate to anything official. RUMORS of intermarriage were exactly that, rumors. No evidence it was really taken under consideration. Hitler himself LOVED the Japanese race (hard to believe, but true) he considered them the Germans or Aryans of the East. He believed them to be the proper conquerors of Asia. There is no evidence they were supposed to be classified as undesirables as mentioned above. There was no intention from the Japanese government to be anti-whitey, or anti-imperialist beyond propaganda to be their own imperialism. The East Asian Co-prosperity sphere was propaganda, never intending to be self-rule for Asians, but instead simply a Japanese dominated Empire based on that of the British-style. Influence and trade and talks with Ethiopia was nothing more than expanding the Japanese sphere of interest, once they became allied with Italy and Italian claims to that sphere took precedence the Japanese shrugged their shoulders and didn't care one bit about Ethiopia.
 

Benevolent

Banned
While there was some public support from the masses with fighting "whitey" this did not translate to anything official. RUMORS of intermarriage were exactly that, rumors. No evidence it was really taken under consideration. Hitler himself LOVED the Japanese race (hard to believe, but true) he considered them the Germans or Aryans of the East. He believed them to be the proper conquerors of Asia. There is no evidence they were supposed to be classified as undesirables as mentioned above. There was no intention from the Japanese government to be anti-whitey, or anti-imperialist beyond propaganda to be their own imperialism. The East Asian Co-prosperity sphere was propaganda, never intending to be self-rule for Asians, but instead simply a Japanese dominated Empire based on that of the British-style. Influence and trade and talks with Ethiopia was nothing more than expanding the Japanese sphere of interest, once they became allied with Italy and Italian claims to that sphere took precedence the Japanese shrugged their shoulders and didn't care one bit about Ethiopia.

It was not mere rumor, the Prince Lij Araya Abebe and an envoy of Ethiopian officials came to Japan and there were women who had already submit photos and factoids about themselves to become married. That goes beyond mere rumor.

The Japanese were labeled as part of the coloured races by German government so that even though they were later given Honorary White status they themselves have a long history of frustration with being perceived as inadequate to be a global player as other European nations.

Obviously you came on here and want to right because you got triggered by something, I have not said "whitey" if you do not like the topic and do not know the extent with which Japan and Ethiopia went I think its best you leave and not clearly explode in a emotional manner.

Thank you.
 
There was literacy in Ethiopia, what advantage does Japan's literacy have to the former?

Race was actually used a lot in this situation, actually if you take the time to read on it you'll see that has a lot to do with this whole relationship.

Don't say race is arbitrary in the late 19th and 20th century, it's not accurate at all especially given the fact that it was Japanese right wing groups who supported Ethiopian-Japanese intermarriage at the royal level and pushed the notion of Ethiopians being "Asiatic".

This is fully within the boundaries of trying to undermine white imperialism, the language itself on both sides being such.
That's amazing!

I was already thinking on working up a TL involving Ethipia, as well as wanted to find a way to butterfly away the worst excesses of the Japanese Empire... this might just be it!!
 
It was not mere rumor, the Prince Lij Araya Abebe and an envoy of Ethiopian officials came to Japan and there were women who had already submit photos and factoids about themselves to become married. That goes beyond mere rumor.

The Japanese were labeled as part of the coloured races by German government so that even though they were later given Honorary White status they themselves have a long history of frustration with being perceived as inadequate to be a global player as other European nations.

Obviously you came on here and want to right because you got triggered by something, I have not said "whitey" if you do not like the topic and do not know the extent with which Japan and Ethiopia went I think its best you leave and not clearly explode in a emotional manner.

Thank you.

Just as curiosity, what Japan before 1900 can do to support Abyssinia? Not surely giving them money or material, they don't have much to spare.
Direct military support? Too long distance between them, this idea has been discussed during the second abyssinian war and in the end unless the British decide to give support the japanese can't do nothing except waste resources...before 1900? Not even thinkable.
Finally, why Japan will support Abyssinia and risk to interfere with the interest of three Great Power, one of them basically their patron (UK), why risk so much?

Regarding Ethiopia, take in consideration the feudal and semi-chaotic situation of that nation, modernize Japan has been a child play if we want compare the place. Before to even start there is the need to phisically eliminate any resistance...basically what Selassiè had done in OTL to at least modernize the place to a certain degree.
 
The problem with Japan using European imperialism to increase its global influence is that they required European arms till after WW1ish. The alliance with the British is absolutely necessary before 1900.
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So then the answer becomes opening Japan to the world earlier. Ideally they would need to be self sufficient militarily by 1890. That way they can intervene in The first Italy Ethiopia war. Overall not a impossible task. The debate in Japan to open up was going on as early as the late 18th century. Take advice from Britain and avoid controlling territory in Eurasia. Ok maybe just Korea to keep the Russians out but other wise focus on Taiwan and Philippines to secure routes to east Africa.
 

Cueg

Banned
There was literacy in Ethiopia, what advantage does Japan's literacy have to the former?

Race was actually used a lot in this situation, actually if you take the time to read on it you'll see that has a lot to do with this whole relationship.

Don't say race is arbitrary in the late 19th and 20th century, it's not accurate at all especially given the fact that it was Japanese right wing groups who supported Ethiopian-Japanese intermarriage at the royal level and pushed the notion of Ethiopians being "Asiatic".

This is fully within the boundaries of trying to undermine white imperialism, the language itself on both sides being such.

You misunderstand, I was discussing internal stability of a modernized Ethiopian state. Earlier in the thread, a user had expressed doubt in regard to its effectiveness and used the different "racial" groups in Ethiopia as justification for his doubt. I was merely stating that the multi-ethnic nature of Abyssinia needn't be a hindrance to the nation-building of the state so long as there's another mechanism by which the people can unite around. As I and yourself said before, the anti-imperialistic, anti-western concept could act as that facilitator.

In regard to Japan and literacy, the Japanese had unusually high levels of literacy in relation to the rest of the world; around 40% before compulsory education if i recall correctly. This is an extremely important caveat that cannot be left out. We must ask, was Japan able to modernize, acting as the sole exception to the global trend, because of its literacy rates? Was it merely one of many factors? How important is it? Ethiopia didn't have a literate population. Sure, the ruling class could write, but this was a common theme throughout the entire world for most of its history. Hell, Ethiopia's literacy rates were well below that of late 19th century Japan in the year 1995!

https://www.quandl.com/data/WORLDBA...dataset[visible_columns]=0&dataset[width]=300

Keep in mind, you'll be hard pressed in finding a consensus on the relationship between literacy and industrialization. Although, i'm among the many that believe, based on what I've read, that there is no causal link. In fact, you can find numerous instances where industrialization actually depressed literacy rates. Whether or not the aforementioned are outliers is for you to decide.

Do note that i'm not using "industrialization" and "modernization" interchangeably. Rather, i'm using the former because that condition must be met in order to modernize. In the end, there must be a desire by whoever is in charge of the Abyssinian polity to go about the long and arduous road towards industrialization, which in turn entails modernization. Centralization is by no means an effective solution. Recall the centralized Russian Empire. As mentioned before, if given the resources the only thing hindering nation-building is both the national and political will to do so.
 

TFSmith121

Banned
Nineteenth Century is pretty early for Japan to

Open question, what if Japan's Ethiophiles and Ethiopia's Japanizer obsessed intellectual class had been able to successfully tie the two nations with a union from the Japanese nobility and Ethiopian royal family? As trade partners they had been supporting one another greatly and there were even talks of mass migration of Japanese farmers and artisans to spearhead a sort of non-European process of "modernization" before WWII. Maybe if it was dialed back a few decades into the 19th century but I guess seeing the domino's fall the way they did doing so might have to be ASB but I guess I'm wondering what is the limit just before one gets into that territory?

The Nineteenth Century is pretty early for Japan to take on proxies, even if the Ethiopians were interested in trading influences from one foreign empire for another.

As it was, Japan had to spend most of the second five decades of the 19th Century itself in a period of national consolidation and integration, and then economic development; by the 1890s, the Japanese were capable of exerting significant influence in Korea and then in the Twentieth, into Manchuria and China; pretty hard to see that moving much faster in a realistic 19th Century.

By the mid-Twentieth, the Japanese have far too much on their plate elsewhere.

One alternative for Ethiopia would be for the British to try and hang on to it as a protectorate after the 1867 war; one can sort of make a strategic case for it, since it dovetails with various British moves in eastern Africa in the 1870s-90s, and there is the Christian angle - hard to argue there's much need for missions when the Ethiopians were already, and there's the potential for ready-made allies against the Mahdists, etc.

I'd guess the Thais and a potential independent Philippine republic are more likely allies for the Japanese at the turn of the Twentieth than anywhere else; close enough for Japanese power to make a difference, far enough away they aren't an obvious target for the Japanese themselves, and the potential "Asian for the Asians" angle in terms of politics...

Best,
 
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