WI: Ergodan Killed in Turkish Coup of 2016

At the height of the attempted Turkish military coup in 2016, two rebel-controlled F-16s locked onto Ergodan's jet and it's two escorts (also F-16s) as he flew from Marmaris, where he had been vacationing, to Istanbul. However, for one reason or another, they did not open fire, and Ergodan was able to land safely. When he reached Istanbul, he was able to rally public support against the coup and retook control.

So, what if he had been shot down - or if he had not left Marmaris and had been killed/taken into custody by the coup troops sent there to apprehend him? How might that have affected the coup?

Please move if too recent to qualify for AH.
 
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The coup was shaky enough as it was. They evidently did not have enough military support as things stood, and there was popular backlash, even in AKP unfriendly Istanbul, against the coup. Erdogan made progress in coup-proofing large parts of the civil service and the military.

If he is killed, I think Yildirim takes over but makes less decisive moves towards centralizing power, due to a lack of charisma and popularity. But a post-coup purge probably still happens as OTL.
 
If he is killed, I think Yildirim takes over but makes less decisive moves towards centralizing power, due to a lack of charisma and popularity. But a post-coup purge probably still happens as OTL.

"Funnily" enough, there was apparently an attempt on his life as well, though that is to be expected. I still wouldn't think the coup would succeed.
 
At the height of the attempted Turkish military coup in 2016, two rebel-controlled F-16s locked onto Ergodan's jet and it's two escorts (also F-16s) as he flew from Marmaris, where he had been vacationing, to Istanbul. However, for one reason or another, they did not open fire, and Ergodan was able to land safely. When he reached Istanbul, he was able to rally public support against the coup and retook control.

So, what if he had been shot down - or if he had not left Marmaris and had been killed/taken into custody by the coup troops sent there to apprehend him? How might that have affected the coup?

Please move if too recent to qualify for AH.
Basically think of it like Austria 1934, only the putschists aren't Nazis. The rest of the army roflstomps the coup plotters, and Erdogan becomes a martyr to Turkish democracy in a few years.
 
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