WI ERE reclaims Egypt in 646 AD?

Following their victory at the Battle of Heliopolis in July 640, and the subsequent capitulation of Alexandria in November 641, Arab troops had taken over what was the Roman province of Egypt. The newly-installed Eastern Roman Emperor Constans II was determined to re-take the land, and ordered a large fleet to carry troops to Alexandria. These troops, under General Manuel, landed and took the city from its small Arab garrison towards the end of 645. Amr at the time may have been in Mecca, and was quickly recalled to take command of the Arab forces in Egypt.
The battle took place at the small fortified town of Nikiou, about two-thirds of the way from Alexandria to Fustat, with the Arab forces numbering around 15,000, against a Roman force. Despite a hard fight, with one of their champions being slain in single combat, the Arabs prevailed, and the Roman forces retreated in disarray back to Alexandria.
WI Romans had won the battle? could they have held Alexandria and some of the "breadbasket" of the Empire under Roman rule? How is a Roman Egypt in 7th-8th century altering History? Any thoughts?
 
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Egypt.

From what I remember of this period (unfortunately I have forgottten alot), the large Greek population of Alexandria made the Byzantine reconquest relatively easy. However, the bulk of the Egyptian population was opposed to Byzantine rule and had mostly welcomed the invading Arabs. I don't see much of a chance of a renewed Byzantine presence, unless the Byzantines and the Egyptians can work out their religious differences.
 
DG

I would agree with El t. Given the geography and provided they can maintain naval supremacy Byzantium can make it difficult for the Muslims to get a new foothold in Egypt given competent military leadership. However they will always have the concern about the feelings of the bulk of the population. The relative tolerance of the Muslims compared to the Christian infighting and the fact they would want far lower taxes - not having the empires high debts or large bureaucracy at this stage - will make them a more attractive option for the Egyptians outside the Greek enclave of Alexandria.

Steve
 
If the Romans win - whe have a Greek elite ruling a unrurly peasants.
This will speed the adoption of Islam among the lower classes. leading to a more and more unruleable Eygpt.
Sometime in the early 700's Islamic Eygpt still breaks lose from Byzanitine, probally taking the Levant with it.

However the butterflies from a Roman Eygpt blocking Islams expansion across North Africa for several generations, is where the major changes come from.
 
DG

I would agree with El t. Given the geography and provided they can maintain naval supremacy Byzantium can make it difficult for the Muslims to get a new foothold in Egypt given competent military leadership. However they will always have the concern about the feelings of the bulk of the population. The relative tolerance of the Muslims compared to the Christian infighting and the fact they would want far lower taxes - not having the empires high debts or large bureaucracy at this stage - will make them a more attractive option for the Egyptians outside the Greek enclave of Alexandria.

Steve

If the Byzantines are able to hold Alexandria against the Arabs, this could really mess up the Arab advance. If Egypt remains the main theater of combat, isn't it possible that Alexandria basically acts as a shield, protecting Byzantine possessions further to the west (ie North Africa).

How possible is it that Alexandria could remain a Byzantine enclave? I know that the Byzantines maintained a sizable naval edge for quite a while (allowing them to hold off Arab sieges of Constantinople), but was that enough to keep ahold of Alexandria and turn Egypt into the main battlefront of the Arab-Byzantine struggle.
 
If the Byzantines are able to hold Alexandria against the Arabs, this could really mess up the Arab advance. If Egypt remains the main theater of combat, isn't it possible that Alexandria basically acts as a shield, protecting Byzantine possessions further to the west (ie North Africa).

How possible is it that Alexandria could remain a Byzantine enclave?

With a bit of luck, it shouldn't be too hard for the Byzantines to hold on to Alexandria for a few decades, just like they did with Carthage in OTL.

However, even if Alexandria remains a Byzantine enclave, then I see no good reason why this (or more precisely; this alone) would stop the Muslim advance westwards - I mean, a bedouin army could easily march from Fustat into Libya without even going anywhere near Alexandria.
 
With a bit of luck, it shouldn't be too hard for the Byzantines to hold on to Alexandria for a few decades, just like they did with Carthage in OTL.

However, even if Alexandria remains a Byzantine enclave, then I see no good reason why this (or more precisely; this alone) would stop the Muslim advance westwards - I mean, a bedouin army could easily march from Fustat into Libya without even going anywhere near Alexandria.

Bypassing Alexandria means leaving a fairly strong Roman position in their rear though, so any offensive into Libya would either have to leave behind a fairly large covering force or risk the Romans breaking out from Alexandria and either attacking their positions in Egypt or catching the Arab forced in a pincer movement with the Libyan/Tunisian forces.
 
However, even if Alexandria remains a Byzantine enclave, then I see no good reason why this (or more precisely; this alone) would stop the Muslim advance westwards - I mean, a bedouin army could easily march from Fustat into Libya without even going anywhere near Alexandria.
IIRC a lot of the manpower for the advance across NAfrica, can from Eygptian Converts.
If Eygpt is still being disputed, this manpower will not be avalible to the Islam Forces.
 
In my opinion a Roman Egypt in post-7th century is plausible only if Romans and native Copts can work out their religious differences...
 
If the Romans win - whe have a Greek elite ruling a unrurly peasants.
This will speed the adoption of Islam among the lower classes. leading to a more and more unruleable Eygpt.
Sometime in the early 700's Islamic Eygpt still breaks lose from Byzanitine, probally taking the Levant with it.

Just one question; exactly why would the local Egyptian lower classes convert to Islam if the Muslim invasion of Egypt failed?

In that scenario, there would be no Muslims in Egypt to propagate Islam, and the Egyptian lower classes have no reason to convert to another religion out of dissatisfaction with the Greek and Melkite upper class, as the vast majority of them already adheres the miaphysite Coptic Church, which is already persecuted by the Byzantine authorities.

..
And if there are (significant numbers of) Muslims in Egypt, then that means that the Byzantines have lost control over most of Egypt, with the result that the Greek and Melkite upper class has largely been overthrown, and the repression of the local Copts being put to an end.

And even if the Copts would rebel againest the remnants of Byzantine power in Egypt, then the most likely scenario we would see here, is something quite similar to what we saw with the Paulicians in Armenia; local rebels that are allied to the Muslims, but have no intention of actually converting to Islam.

IIRC a lot of the manpower for the advance across NAfrica, can from Eygptian Converts.
If Eygpt is still being disputed, this manpower will not be avalible to the Islam Forces.

I disagree with that - to my knowledge, the Umayyad armies that invaded the Exarchate of Africa consisted almost entirely of Arabs, and the numbers of Egyptian conversions to Islam were negligible until large numbers of sedentary Arabs started to settle in the Nile Delta, which mainly happened later during the Umayyad age and the (early) Abbasid age.
 
I think that Copts in Roman Egypt after 7th century would have acted as a fifth phalanx against roman authority... Constant coptic rebellions would have weakened significantly the roman garrisons in Alexandria and if we add potential Generals rebellions the Empire remains vulnerable to attacks in Asia Minor and Levant or the Emperor would be forced to withdraw from Italy to reinforce Egypt and eastern borders...
 
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