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What would have been the effects of Germany and Austria-Hungary folding in World War I within three years of the outbreak, with Tsarist Russia one of the victorious powers and no American entry?

A decent POD would be someone other than Falkenhayn replacing Molkte as German Chief of Staff. Though Falkenhayn had no war winning ideas, he proved to be very good at stabilizing a bad situation. The Central Powers held on to the strategic territories they took in France in 1914 and gained Flanders, pushed the Russians back, overran Serbia and established communications with Turkey, and established the Raw Materials Office. Someone less competent wouldn't have managed all that.

The Entente powers had a strategy of offensives on all fronts at the same time overwhelming the Central Powers with sheer material superiority, and this wound up working in August-October 1918. But they nearly pulled it off in 1916. The western offensives were disrupted by the German counter-strike at Verdun, and the Russian West Front never really got going.

Here is a link to a Quora discussion of the Russian war aims:

https://www.quora.com/If-Russia-did...mands-likely-have-been-from-the-losers-of-WW1

There is an interesting, though unofficial, map attached. The map was produced by an advocacy group, take note of the comment by Michael Mills which discusses the official, public, Russian government position.
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