WI Entente wins World War I in 1915 or 1916

What would have been the effects of Germany and Austria-Hungary folding in World War I within three years of the outbreak, with Tsarist Russia one of the victorious powers and no American entry?

A decent POD would be someone other than Falkenhayn replacing Molkte as German Chief of Staff. Though Falkenhayn had no war winning ideas, he proved to be very good at stabilizing a bad situation. The Central Powers held on to the strategic territories they took in France in 1914 and gained Flanders, pushed the Russians back, overran Serbia and established communications with Turkey, and established the Raw Materials Office. Someone less competent wouldn't have managed all that.

The Entente powers had a strategy of offensives on all fronts at the same time overwhelming the Central Powers with sheer material superiority, and this wound up working in August-October 1918. But they nearly pulled it off in 1916. The western offensives were disrupted by the German counter-strike at Verdun, and the Russian West Front never really got going.

Here is a link to a Quora discussion of the Russian war aims:

https://www.quora.com/If-Russia-did...mands-likely-have-been-from-the-losers-of-WW1

There is an interesting, though unofficial, map attached. The map was produced by an advocacy group, take note of the comment by Michael Mills which discusses the official, public, Russian government position.
 
Germany wouldn't get so harsh peace terms as in OTL. It would still lost all of its colonies, A-L, and some territories in east. Germany would too pay some reparations but not in such scale as in OTL. Not sure what would happen with military restriction. Monarchy would survive. No Hitler so no Holocaust nor WW2.

Austro-Hungarian Empire would still collapse. Probably we would see Yugoslavia forming bit earlier than in OTL and Russia would take Galicia. Independent Czechoslovakia and bigger Hungary are possible. I don't know if Austria would be allowed join to Germany. But Habsburgs probably remain in power.

Bulgaria would get pretty same treatment as in OTL. It was quiet mild even in OTL.

Ottoman Empire would collapse totally. But we might see Sultanate of Turkey instead Republic of Turkey.

Russia would still see internal problems when returning soldiers would demand lesser autocratic government and there would be pressure towards constitutional monarchy. Romanovs probably would survive to end of 1920's and with good luck to modern day.
 
The League of Nations and the restrictions on German sovereignty were American ideas and wouldn't have made it into an earlier peace. The Americans are notorious for not understanding or respecting national sovereignty. However, as viewed by the map in the Quora link, a collapse of the Central Powers would have resulted in much greater territorial losses for Germany and I'm not sure if Germany would have survived as a unified nation.
 
Looking at the map, a smaller Germany with Austria and Bavaria as separate countries might be possible. But where is East Prussia? It looks like it is part of Russia.
 
A successful Gallipolli operation would've knocked out the Ottomans, kept the Bulgarians neutral and restored supply access to Russia. Greece and Romania could also probably be brought in at that point, resulting in the collapse of the Austro-Hungarians over the course of 1915 and the Germans would probably be forced to seek peace by 1916.
 

Thomas1195

Banned
Changing the whole French military doctrine before ww1. No more offensive at utmost, but sensible defensive + counter-offensive strategy. The POD is to keep Victor Michel as Chief of Staff. Since early ww1 favoured the defenders in trenches with machine guns, German dead bodies would have increased substantially.

Result: Germany is not going to occupy all of French northern industrial regions. Best scenario: their armies are stopped at Belgium.
 
Several scenarios:

The Russians are doing a little better (perhaps 1st and 2nd army are defeated but manage to withdraw) and with the Italians hammer Austria into submission. works even better if Romania joins with Italy.

In this case, the Russians will occupy whatever they want from Austria. Neiher Romania, Italy or Serbia will object. At this point, they might offer generous terms to the Germans to end the war and keep the French in check

Scenario 2:

The collapse comes from the Brusilov offensive and the Somme succeeding better. Germany collapses with Austria. Then the Russians make a harsh peace on Germany. She will have an occupation zone like the French have in the West- probably the Oder at least.

The Russians will back the French in hopes of driving a wedge between them and the British.

Again, she takes what she wants and dares anyone to force her out
 
People now days tend to forget that even in 1916 Austria was considered 'part of the club'. Breaking her up wasn't considered by France and Britain until it was already done.

Germany is losing Alsace-Lorraine of course, and German colonies to Britain. And Russia will likely get some or all of Galicia. But if Britain and France see this map breaking down Central Europe into easily digestible pieces, they're going to object.
 
People now days tend to forget that even in 1916 Austria was considered 'part of the club'. Breaking her up wasn't considered by France and Britain until it was already done.

Germany is losing Alsace-Lorraine of course, and German colonies to Britain. And Russia will likely get some or all of Galicia. But if Britain and France see this map breaking down Central Europe into easily digestible pieces, they're going to object.
They an object all they want but Austria is being occupied by Russia, Serbia, Romania and Italy. Someone is going to have to object by force of arms to evict them. I don't see either France or Britain being willing and able to do that

France will want far more than Alsace-Lorraine. More likely the Rhine- a nice secure border. Who is going to force them out? The British? Well Britain cant fight both France and Russia

The French and the Russians have a deal- a free hand for each. France in the West and Russia in the East
 
They an object all they want but Austria is being occupied by Russia, Serbia, Romania and Italy. Someone is going to have to object by force of arms to evict them. I don't see either France or Britain being willing and able to do that

France will want far more than Alsace-Lorraine. More likely the Rhine- a nice secure border. Who is going to force them out? The British? Well Britain cant fight both France and Russia

The French and the Russians have a deal- a free hand for each. France in the West and Russia in the East

In 1916, none of those powers has the military reach to extend into Austria. Especially when the Empire's army is capable of going back out in the field if Russia takes advantage of her surrender. That's the reason why Prussia didn't push for Bohemia during the Austro-Prussian War. Because Austria would have found the money and energy to start up again somehow, with foreign aid this time.

And France didn't get her Rhine border the first or the second time they brought down the German Reich, why would they get it when Germany isn't completely exhausted?
 
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