Until Hitler shows up, yeah. At which point millions of people die.
Unless this butterflies Nazi Germany altogether, which given the Italian zone’s effect on Italy proper it very well might.
Until Hitler shows up, yeah. At which point millions of people die.
I dunno, Italy's still going to be in political turmoil and the expense of resources on that clusterfuck is going to make things even worse, not to mention that Hitler was in large part a consequence of the Spartakist revolt and that whole mess in the immediate post-war period rendering the German establishment terrified of socialism. With the Versailles mess in all likelihood still happening, the Nazis are very likely to rise in a similar fashion to OTL, especially if that senile idiot Hindenburg is in the position to put Hitler in charge.Unless this butterflies Nazi Germany altogether, which given the Italian zone’s effect on Italy proper it very well might.
If it's successfully enforced (for a given value of successfully), good luck stopping the Turks from allying with Hitler. The Turkish populations in the Greek territory and the bits handed over to the main Allied powers within Anatolia would rebel the moment the new dictator of Turkey (and it would go ultranationalist dictatorship, the Soviets are too close for the Turks to go commie, and they will want blood and revenge) started talking to the Nazis.
So, it's an unstable mess until '39 at which point everything goes to Hell and WW2 takes even longer and includes a chaotic disaster in the Middle East and the Balkans as Turkish ultranationalists fight Jewish ultranationalists fight Arab ultranationalists fight Greek and Entente forces trying to hold on fight Iranian troops and guerillas trying to put their shit in while the Allies and Soviets attempt to keep Iran from flipping by preemptively invading fight Kurdish nationalists trying to do THEIR own thing (with blackjack, and hookers!) and the whole thing turns into a fratricidal mess until the USA lands a million fresh men, Audie Murphy gets a few medals for single-handedly storming Istanbul and punting the Turkish dictator out of a building or something equally balls-out insane, and and America basically forces the wrecked remains of France and Britain to be the very decidedly junior partners in the new American system.
Turkey ends up with most of Anatolia but they lose bits and chunks of coast to US-run "international zones" that become hotbeds of intrigue. America takes Palestine as its territory and promises a referendum on the territory's future in 20 years (which America spends spewing nonstop propaganda about how great America is). Turkey gets treated like Nazi Germany OTL (and with a longer and bloodier WW2 good luck getting Paperclip to happen), the Soviets get more of Europe under the Iron Curtain, Stalin has a little puppet state in eastern Anatolia and splits off part of the northern coast as the "Black Sea Greek Socialist People's Republic" or something, America sets up some Arab republics and some Turkish republics that they think will probably be sort of stable...
Basically, longer, nastier WW2, bigger, more militarized America, FDR probably dies of stress a bit earlier, Truman keeps the US military at higher readiness and with more budget in the late '40s which means Korea goes better for the Republic. Don't know how China would end up. Given ultranationalist revanchist Turkey rampaging everywhere and millions of American troops holding down the fort and hunting radicals, I'd say that Israel probably doesn't happen, so the Arab world is more stable in the mid-20th century. Turkey probably regains the eastern parts after the fall of the USSR, then the north coast becomes a Russian client state through blatant political finagling.
We were drawn in when the Japanese shot up one of our military bases and then delivered us the DOW post hoc, at which point the entire country decided "fuck peace, these guys need their shit shoved in". Axis Turkey doesn't change that.Puh, with a Nazi alligned Turkey the question is if the USA will enter the war.
With a serious opening in the Middle East, Hitler might decide to "close the sack".
And if the Afrikakorps is advancing towards the Suez, while the Arabienkorps is plunging the ME into chaos, GB might get weak knees.
Sure, if the USA are drawn in Allied victory is inevitable. But things might go down a different path with an Axis Turkey.
We were drawn in when the Japanese shot up one of our military bases and then delivered us the DOW post hoc, at which point the entire country decided "fuck peace, these guys need their shit shoved in". Axis Turkey doesn't change that.
Puh, with a Nazi alligned Turkey the question is if the USA will enter the war.
With a serious opening in the Middle East, Hitler might decide to "close the sack".
And if the Afrikakorps is advancing towards the Suez, while the Arabienkorps is plunging the ME into chaos, GB might get weak knees.
Sure, if the USA are drawn in Allied victory is inevitable. But things might go down a different path with an Axis Turkey.
Though with a POD back this far, butterflies might hit Japan. If less militaristic elements were able to win out, then you might see no Pearl Harbour.
Through the Anatolian Highlands? Some of the worst tank country in the continent? And how are they getting across the Bosporus and the Dardenelles? Even if Greece loses, the region can be mined and patrolled by the RN (note that the Greeks will likely be a bit stronger, having not gone through the turmoil after losing Sevres and being pro-Allies earlier with Fascist nations on all sides). It'll be difficult to guarantee supplies make it across early on.
Then, again, you'd have to get across the at-the-time underdeveloped and poor mountainous region which does not have the infrastructure to support mass armor invasions.
Fascist Turkey would probably build some more infrastructure there if it plans for eventual belligerency.
But does Germany really need a big mechanized force. Does Britian have enough manpower to mount a serious defense of Arabia and Afrika in 1941?
Especially if the Nazis are likely to kickstart a massive Arab revolt ?
What about, TTL, Germany falls to something more akin to a Kapp Putsch reactionary freikorps-adjacent movement than an explicitly National Socialist expansionist party? There'd be crackdowns on socialists, sure, but probably less radical changes to German society and less expansionism in Eastern Europe, am I wrong?
Or even a more moderate government than that. Dunno why people keep assuming Nazis specifically still exist.
Or a nationalist government but one that isn’t anti-Semitic due to no socialist-Jewish propaganda association.
It's rather difficult to conceive of a nationalist German government at the time which isn't at least somewhat antisemitic, but it's certainly possible (even highly probable) that the alternative German regime in this TL would be significantly less so.
It's rather difficult to conceive of a nationalist German government at the time which isn't at least somewhat antisemitic, but it's certainly possible (even highly probable) that the alternative German regime in this TL would be significantly less so.
Puh, with a Nazi alligned Turkey the question is if the USA will enter the war.
With a serious opening in the Middle East, Hitler might decide to "close the sack".
And if the Afrikakorps is advancing towards the Suez, while the Arabienkorps is plunging the ME into chaos, GB might get weak knees.
Sure, if the USA are drawn in Allied victory is inevitable. But things might go down a different path with an Axis Turkey.