WI: Entente win a devastating victory in WWI, Treaty of Sevres enforced

Unless this butterflies Nazi Germany altogether, which given the Italian zone’s effect on Italy proper it very well might.
I dunno, Italy's still going to be in political turmoil and the expense of resources on that clusterfuck is going to make things even worse, not to mention that Hitler was in large part a consequence of the Spartakist revolt and that whole mess in the immediate post-war period rendering the German establishment terrified of socialism. With the Versailles mess in all likelihood still happening, the Nazis are very likely to rise in a similar fashion to OTL, especially if that senile idiot Hindenburg is in the position to put Hitler in charge.

Of course, the early 20th century being what it was, we could very easily have Italy and Germany going communist or the entire continent exploding into civil wars.
 

MrP

Banned
Just because the Entente wins an earlier victory doesn't mean Turkey will accept dismemberment. Once Germany, Austria-Hungary and, presumably, Bulgaria, have signed a ceasefire of one sort or another, Turkey will simply continue the fight on its own as it did in OTL, probably after a coup deposes the Ottomans and sets up an ultranationalist regime.
 

Anchises

Banned
If it's successfully enforced (for a given value of successfully), good luck stopping the Turks from allying with Hitler. The Turkish populations in the Greek territory and the bits handed over to the main Allied powers within Anatolia would rebel the moment the new dictator of Turkey (and it would go ultranationalist dictatorship, the Soviets are too close for the Turks to go commie, and they will want blood and revenge) started talking to the Nazis.

So, it's an unstable mess until '39 at which point everything goes to Hell and WW2 takes even longer and includes a chaotic disaster in the Middle East and the Balkans as Turkish ultranationalists fight Jewish ultranationalists fight Arab ultranationalists fight Greek and Entente forces trying to hold on fight Iranian troops and guerillas trying to put their shit in while the Allies and Soviets attempt to keep Iran from flipping by preemptively invading fight Kurdish nationalists trying to do THEIR own thing (with blackjack, and hookers!) and the whole thing turns into a fratricidal mess until the USA lands a million fresh men, Audie Murphy gets a few medals for single-handedly storming Istanbul and punting the Turkish dictator out of a building or something equally balls-out insane, and and America basically forces the wrecked remains of France and Britain to be the very decidedly junior partners in the new American system.

Turkey ends up with most of Anatolia but they lose bits and chunks of coast to US-run "international zones" that become hotbeds of intrigue. America takes Palestine as its territory and promises a referendum on the territory's future in 20 years (which America spends spewing nonstop propaganda about how great America is). Turkey gets treated like Nazi Germany OTL (and with a longer and bloodier WW2 good luck getting Paperclip to happen), the Soviets get more of Europe under the Iron Curtain, Stalin has a little puppet state in eastern Anatolia and splits off part of the northern coast as the "Black Sea Greek Socialist People's Republic" or something, America sets up some Arab republics and some Turkish republics that they think will probably be sort of stable...

Basically, longer, nastier WW2, bigger, more militarized America, FDR probably dies of stress a bit earlier, Truman keeps the US military at higher readiness and with more budget in the late '40s which means Korea goes better for the Republic. Don't know how China would end up. Given ultranationalist revanchist Turkey rampaging everywhere and millions of American troops holding down the fort and hunting radicals, I'd say that Israel probably doesn't happen, so the Arab world is more stable in the mid-20th century. Turkey probably regains the eastern parts after the fall of the USSR, then the north coast becomes a Russian client state through blatant political finagling.

Puh, with a Nazi alligned Turkey the question is if the USA will enter the war.

With a serious opening in the Middle East, Hitler might decide to "close the sack".

And if the Afrikakorps is advancing towards the Suez, while the Arabienkorps is plunging the ME into chaos, GB might get weak knees.

Sure, if the USA are drawn in Allied victory is inevitable. But things might go down a different path with an Axis Turkey.
 
Puh, with a Nazi alligned Turkey the question is if the USA will enter the war.

With a serious opening in the Middle East, Hitler might decide to "close the sack".

And if the Afrikakorps is advancing towards the Suez, while the Arabienkorps is plunging the ME into chaos, GB might get weak knees.

Sure, if the USA are drawn in Allied victory is inevitable. But things might go down a different path with an Axis Turkey.
We were drawn in when the Japanese shot up one of our military bases and then delivered us the DOW post hoc, at which point the entire country decided "fuck peace, these guys need their shit shoved in". Axis Turkey doesn't change that.
 
We were drawn in when the Japanese shot up one of our military bases and then delivered us the DOW post hoc, at which point the entire country decided "fuck peace, these guys need their shit shoved in". Axis Turkey doesn't change that.

Though with a POD back this far, butterflies might hit Japan. If less militaristic elements were able to win out, then you might see no Pearl Harbour.
 
IMHO when the fighting dies down and lines on the ground are drawn you WILL see serious ethnic cleansing. In the fighting that occurred, all sides had atrocities to one extent or another, with the capper being what happened when the Greeks collapsed and were pushed out - what happened in Smyrna was extremely ugly as an example. On way or another the Greek areas will contain very few Turks - other Christians such as Armenians, Assyrians, etc and the Jews will be there. The Turkish areas rather the reverse, although while Christians of all stripes were roughly handled, the Jews mostly were not probably because they were not seen as a threat and/or had no foreign patrons.

While circumstances can make strange bedfellows, the rump Turkish state turning to Russia would be highly unlikely as they were only behind Greece as traditional enemies. Add in a Soviet Russia, that makes it even less likely as there was not much sympathy for communism with Ataturk and his merry men.

A Turkey absent Constantinople and significant areas of OTL territory including most if not all of the Mediterranean coast is going to be significantly weaker in 1939 than OTL, and in 1939 it was simply not capable of joining in on either side. It would be more of a drag on Germany/Italy than it would be worth, and only slightly more positive than Franco's Spain. That is to say, only as good as it can be supplied. While Turkey would be tempted to join in and regain lost teritory, like Spain they would wait until Axis victory was in the bag before jumping in - much like they did on the Allied side. Joining the Axis and losing would basically mean no more Turley.

Of course the butterflies from this would be huge, so who knows what would happen after the early 1920s. I suppose all one can say is the Middle East, like OTL, would be a mess, probably just with different lines on the ground.
 
Puh, with a Nazi alligned Turkey the question is if the USA will enter the war.

With a serious opening in the Middle East, Hitler might decide to "close the sack".

And if the Afrikakorps is advancing towards the Suez, while the Arabienkorps is plunging the ME into chaos, GB might get weak knees.

Sure, if the USA are drawn in Allied victory is inevitable. But things might go down a different path with an Axis Turkey.

Through the Anatolian Highlands? Some of the worst tank country in the continent? And how are they getting across the Bosporus and the Dardenelles? Even if Greece loses, the region can be mined and patrolled by the RN (note that the Greeks will likely be a bit stronger, having not gone through the turmoil after losing Sevres and being pro-Allies earlier with Fascist nations on all sides). It'll be difficult to guarantee supplies make it across early on.

Then, again, you'd have to get across the at-the-time underdeveloped and poor mountainous region which does not have the infrastructure to support mass armor invasions.

Though with a POD back this far, butterflies might hit Japan. If less militaristic elements were able to win out, then you might see no Pearl Harbour.

Even before Pearl Harbor hit, the US and Germany were everything but at war. And as Gallup polls were showing, the US was becoming more and more sure that it needed to intervene, reaching majority support even before Pearl. No Pearl simply means US entry is drawn into 1942.

-

And the biggest issue about Axis Turkey - what about Italy still attempting to hold onto its zone of influence and colony?After decades of development, Mussolini is going to accept giving it all up just to get Albania? If anything that might push him towards staying neutral a little bit longer...
 

Anchises

Banned
Through the Anatolian Highlands? Some of the worst tank country in the continent? And how are they getting across the Bosporus and the Dardenelles? Even if Greece loses, the region can be mined and patrolled by the RN (note that the Greeks will likely be a bit stronger, having not gone through the turmoil after losing Sevres and being pro-Allies earlier with Fascist nations on all sides). It'll be difficult to guarantee supplies make it across early on.

Then, again, you'd have to get across the at-the-time underdeveloped and poor mountainous region which does not have the infrastructure to support mass armor invasions.

Fascist Turkey would probably build some more infrastructure there if it plans for eventual belligerency.

But does Germany really need a big mechanized force. Does Britian have enough manpower to mount a serious defense of Arabia and Afrika in 1941?

Especially if the Nazis are likely to kickstart a massive Arab revolt ?
 
Fascist Turkey would probably build some more infrastructure there if it plans for eventual belligerency.

But does Germany really need a big mechanized force. Does Britian have enough manpower to mount a serious defense of Arabia and Afrika in 1941?

Especially if the Nazis are likely to kickstart a massive Arab revolt ?

Why would they when they are even more isolated from the World Economy and their biggest supporter would be the Germans, who are as noted in an economy that is built on looting other nations and would have collapsed under its own weight if it hadn't been so successful.

Also, this is a revanchist Turkey that the italians would definitely be opposed to up arming, as that disturbs their own position in their colonies, so you're driving a wedge between Germany and Italy. And the Germans are not going to trade Italy for Turkey, either way.

And yes, they do, as the Germans could hardly win on a single front on one side, and German support was relatively limited. Turkish advances would of course mean Turkish desire to reclaim Greater Turkey, which included large parts of Arabia, so your German-sympathetic Arabs would of course be giving large parts of their own countries up to make the Turks satisfied. Simultaneously, the Arab economies would be cut off, as there is no way to actually transport the oil overland except via a potential pipeline from Mosul allll the way overland into Turkey and across the straits or into the Black Sea... which basically means the same problems as Baku, as Mosul could easily be bombed from allied airfields and remove any oil that could be exported. The Arab economie would crash, things would go bad, etc.

Also, any German soldier that you put in Africa and the Middle East is one less that could be used against the Soviets. If we are assuming no butterflies at all, then the Nazi's main objective is acquiring lebensraum in the east, and there's no diverting from that. The Afrika Korps was bad enough, but an entirely unmechanized army with even poorer support trying to break south into Syria and past, in what would be prime tank country, in the location that the British were able to reinforce to the best of the ability, while making any drive into Russia weaker. Sounds like a recipe for disaster.

And even if the Suez "was" closed, it wouldn't matter really, as the majority of merchant shipping was going around Africa as it was (since Italy was too large of a threat in the Mediterranean).
 

Vorti

Banned
What about, TTL, Germany falls to something more akin to a Kapp Putsch reactionary freikorps-adjacent movement than an explicitly National Socialist expansionist party? There'd be crackdowns on socialists, sure, but probably less radical changes to German society and less expansionism in Eastern Europe, am I wrong?
 
What about, TTL, Germany falls to something more akin to a Kapp Putsch reactionary freikorps-adjacent movement than an explicitly National Socialist expansionist party? There'd be crackdowns on socialists, sure, but probably less radical changes to German society and less expansionism in Eastern Europe, am I wrong?

Or even a more moderate government than that. Dunno why people keep assuming Nazis specifically still exist.
 

Vorti

Banned
Or even a more moderate government than that. Dunno why people keep assuming Nazis specifically still exist.

Or a nationalist government but one that isn’t anti-Semitic due to no socialist-Jewish propaganda association.

Seeing Germany send support to Lehi to undermine the British Mandate, portraying Jews in propaganda as noble Israelite warriors fighting for Germany...that would be interesting. It’d heavily alienate potential Muslim allies, though.
 
Or a nationalist government but one that isn’t anti-Semitic due to no socialist-Jewish propaganda association.

It's rather difficult to conceive of a nationalist German government at the time which isn't at least somewhat antisemitic, but it's certainly possible (even highly probable) that the alternative German regime in this TL would be significantly less so.
 

Vorti

Banned
It's rather difficult to conceive of a nationalist German government at the time which isn't at least somewhat antisemitic, but it's certainly possible (even highly probable) that the alternative German regime in this TL would be significantly less so.

Is it possible such a government would encourage emigration to Mandatory Palestine, though?
 
It's rather difficult to conceive of a nationalist German government at the time which isn't at least somewhat antisemitic, but it's certainly possible (even highly probable) that the alternative German regime in this TL would be significantly less so.

If you have a surviving Russian Empire, as the OP suggests, who is seen as the main enemy and continues the pre-war Czarist policy of radical anti-semitism, I could certainly see the Germans adopting at least a neutral view on the Jews, especially given how culturally assimilated they were in Germany relative to other parts of Europe.
 
Puh, with a Nazi alligned Turkey the question is if the USA will enter the war.

With a serious opening in the Middle East, Hitler might decide to "close the sack".

And if the Afrikakorps is advancing towards the Suez, while the Arabienkorps is plunging the ME into chaos, GB might get weak knees.

Sure, if the USA are drawn in Allied victory is inevitable. But things might go down a different path with an Axis Turkey.

8th Army defeat's the Afrika Korps at the 2nd Battle of the Golan Heights :)
 
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