Yes, US can win by attrition, if it enters war in 1914, by 1917-1918, but they need to secure Canada until 1915 Christmas, or they are screwed.
I won't think so. CSA would have same army, although with 35-39.000.000 of population only. And don't forget about Canada. 2-front war is quite risky
They can make push into Maryland, if they're declared war first, as preemptive strike, in order to reach Phily...How on Earth can that be true?
In any scenario,t he USA is going to be larger, richer, better organized, more modern and better positioned logistically. How is a slave owning, ramshackle CSA going to compete in modern industrial warfare with a giant like the Union?
Less than 20 years after the war? There is no way the CSA could amend their constitution that soon. Way too many veterans still around. Way too many people asking, 'What did my son/husband/father/brother die for?' Way too much capital tied up in slaves.
They can make push into Maryland, if they're declared war first, as preemptive strike, in order to reach Phily...
I have a question then. Theoretically, South can industrialise rapidly between 1862 and 1914?I like TL-191. I really do, I own all the books, have read them several times. But they aren't very plausible, for a few reason. The main problem is that Turtledove wanted his Great War to be patterned off WW1, including the exact same length of time, regardless of in-universe factors. This is good for his narrative (not least that each year could be one book, or so) but bad for actual Alternate History.
The Union is going to have very sizable institutional advantages, and the CSA very severe disadvantages, that are never really addressed in the book. I mean,t he CSA fights off a huge internal revolt AND holds off the Union at the same time? Crazy.
In any reasonable TL, the Union is probably going to own much of the CSA anyway, due to economic advantages. The South is going to be a very poor, backward nation due to outdated means of production, lack of immigration, a desolate educational system and a ramshackle central government. In a war that resembles anything like WW1, industrial output and manpower are key and the Union will have that in spades. Canada would fall in months, not years. Turtledove, somehow, has Canada home to trench warfare? Have you seen Canada? It is gigantic and barely populated. The Union would crash over it like a tidal wave. The CSA too, has a vast and indefeasible border with the Union, and a interior riddled with people who would probably jump at the chance to join the North (both white and black).
TL-191?
Confederacy abolished slavery in 1881.
Canada would fall in months, not years. Turtledove, somehow, has Canada home to trench warfare? Have you seen Canada? It is gigantic and barely populated. The Union would crash over it like a tidal wave. T
I have a question then. Theoretically, South can industrialise rapidly between 1862 and 1914?
It has Kentucky and Oklahoma territory. Western Virginia still seceded and joined to Union.
ATL US has 73-75.000.000 population, 70-80% of GDP of OTL USA
Yes, US can win by attrition, if it enters war in 1914, by 1917-1918, but they need to secure Canada until 1915 Christmas, or they are screwed.