WI: Enigma Code never cracked and no ULTRA for the Allie

I think that it was hard to avoid. Encryption machines where unsafe. Didi't the US brake the Japanese one? Sweden broke the Gschreiber and it was a harder code. It was just a math proffesor and he did it on 2 weeks.
 

Thande

Donor
First you need to say why. Things that would help are 1) The Polish mathematicians who designed the Bombas not escaping to Britain, and 2) the Germans not being so arrogant about believing the code was unbreakable (in OTL the Kriegsmarine did keep modifying the machine and causing headaches for the codebreakers when the Wehrmacht didn't, so just have the Wehrmacht be as paranoid as the Kriegsmarine).

Even then, it won't be absolute.
 
Better still, eliminate Friedman. Once he proves the rotor machine can be solved, in 1920, it's just a matter of time. If it takes until, say, '39 to even know it's possible, Enigma may get broken, but not in time to help. I'm also going to presume the Type 97 machine (PURPLE) doesn't get broken in time by OP-20G, either; offhand, I can't say if JN-25 would get broken anyhow. J-19 probably does. And without the security paranoia in the U.S. over PURPLE, it's possible the stupid decision to seize & copy codebooks from Nisshin Maru II ('40?) doesn't happen.

Presuming these things, things look a fair deal bleaker for the Allies. Less interdiction from Malta of supplies to DAK. Less (no?) chance of discovering the Germans are reading Black & using the information Fellers provides to counter Brit plans. Somewhat less effective ASW in ATO. Less warning at Coral Sea & Midway (Hypo still reading callsigns, I presume, so some hints); likely defeats at both. (Halsey KIA Coral Sea? Fletcher too, or at Midway?) Perhaps no Doolittle stunt, tho; maybe this, &/or loss at Coral Sea, butterfiles Midway. No warning of von Kluge's attack after D-Day, so no Falaise Pocket.

On the upside, U.S. reading (& actually paying attention to) J-19 means IJN gets a mightily hot reception 7/12/41...:cool::eek: With a need to pay better attention to other intel probably means the '44 German attack in the Ardennes is anticipated & destroyed. Maybe (but probably not:mad:) better use of DF & ASW a/c in ATO (net better than OTL?). More effective USN subs in PTO from war's start (the maru code made a huge difference when it was broken again 1/43 OTL), so maybe Nimtiz doesn't pull boats off the firing line for supply missions or close recon of Japanese ports, instead targeting tankers & DDs, while using mining & traffic analysis to bottle IJN ships, which ends the war around 2/44...:D Presuming Halsey KIA, Spruance crushes IJN at Leyte Gulf, the largest single sea victory in history (& likely to remain so); unfortunately, G.H.W.Bush drowns after his TBF is shot down before he's rescued...:rolleyes: Spruance runs for Pres in '52?:p (Defeats Ike?:eek:)
 
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Anaxagoras

Banned
The U-boats would be much more successful, and this raises disturbing questions, considering how successful they were IOTL. If you figure an increase in Allied shipping losses of, say, 15%, it would have massive consequences.

And while it doesn't pertain to a POD of Enigma never being broken, I always thought one of the absolute dumbest things the Allies did during the war was to secretly land General Mark Clark in North Africa to met with potentially rebellious Vichy French officers a few days before the Torch landings. He could easily have fallen into German hands, and he not only knew all the details of Operation Torch (being Ike's deputy commander) but also knew about ULTRA. I've tossed around the idea of writing a TL based on the Germans capturing Clark and hence having this information.
 

burmafrd

Banned
Clark was possibly the most over rated US General of the war (next to Doug of course). SO having him as the fall guy would tickle me.
 
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