WI Empress Elizabeth of Russia died between 1757 and 1759?

raharris1973

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The opposite case, Elizabeth living till 1763 and continuing the fight against the haggard Prussians has been done several times, but I do not think the opposite case has been proposed. She was in periodic ill health throughout the 7 Years War.

So - first-level analysis - Peter takes the throne and pulls Russia out of the war with Prussia sooner.

How does Prussia react to a much earlier reduction in enemy pressure. Does it seek to get out of the war with a status quo antebellum peace ASAP? Or does Frederick have territorial ambitions, which may well succeed to Habsburg or Saxon territories (Saxony, Bohemia)?

I could see Fred being attracted to seizing both some of the Polish lands (West Prussia-Gdansk) and Saxon lands of the Wettin monarchs (maybe a decent fraction of Saxony.

How does this impact the rest of the 7 Years War in Europe and overseas.

Second-level analysis - how long does pro-Prussian Peter keep the throne? He was disliked by many, but perhaps with fewer Russian gains/victories his pro-Prussianism would be less resented? Did Catherine have the connections to succeed in a coup against her husband in the 1750s? What if she did?
 
It would be interesting, that's for sure.

What you certainly won't see is that white peace. I'd argue that Prussia was a proto-imperial state in the mold of early republican Rome or the Qin in China, and that only the catastrophic scale of its losses pushed it off that course. Had things gone otherwise I'd argue that the war would be only the first in a series over the question of Prussian domination of Europe.
 
It would be interesting, that's for sure.

What you certainly won't see is that white peace. I'd argue that Prussia was a proto-imperial state in the mold of early republican Rome or the Qin in China, and that only the catastrophic scale of its losses pushed it off that course. Had things gone otherwise I'd argue that the war would be only the first in a series over the question of Prussian domination of Europe.

Although if Prussia really tries that, it sounds likely to get hurt hard even if Peter is a Prussophile.
 
Although if Prussia really tries that, it sounds likely to get hurt hard even if Peter is a Prussophile.

Well, on the one hand, yes. On the other, they'd hardly be trying to do it all in one swoop. It's not like Rome's goal fighting Pyrrhus was to link Britain and Mesopotamia through themselves.

What I meant was that they'd annex some things and take the victory as further justification for the system of military obsession and expansion. No more than West Prussia, Posen, Saxony, and Bohemia certainly. Probably more like the first and third or third and forth. The real issue is the removal of the recovery time Prussia needed after the OTL war, which effectively normalized the state within the European system, having ended all conception of expansion for a generation. And after all, Prussia had made serious efforts at coopting the German confederation out from under the Austrians following the previous victory. With Austria properly cowed, you'd be looking at some sort of split of the Holy Roman Empire into opposing camps.
 
Well, on the one hand, yes. On the other, they'd hardly be trying to do it all in one swoop. It's not like Rome's goal fighting Pyrrhus was to link Britain and Mesopotamia through themselves.

What I meant was that they'd annex some things and take the victory as further justification for the system of military obsession and expansion. No more than West Prussia, Posen, Saxony, and Bohemia certainly. Probably more like the first and third or third and forth. The real issue is the removal of the recovery time Prussia needed after the OTL war, which effectively normalized the state within the European system, having ended all conception of expansion for a generation. And after all, Prussia had made serious efforts at coopting the German confederation out from under the Austrians following the previous victory. With Austria properly cowed, you'd be looking at some sort of split of the Holy Roman Empire into opposing camps.

Yeah. Although whether Prussia can "properly cow" Austria is going to be problematic - and if Peter tries to spend extensive amounts of Russian soldiers for Prussia's interests, I doubt his reign is going to end well (although that may not matter to Prussia).
 
Yeah. Although whether Prussia can "properly cow" Austria is going to be problematic - and if Peter tries to spend extensive amounts of Russian soldiers for Prussia's interests, I doubt his reign is going to end well (although that may not matter to Prussia).

Is it though? Without Russia in the war Prussia will turn on the Swedes, just as in OTL, and it will be equally easy to push them out of the war. At that point he's only got Austria left on his borders. He would still have to worry about incoming attempts from the west by French-led German armies at threatening his rear, yes. But they'd still be focused on Hannover and marching his full strength to swat things like that was Frederick's first talent, after all.

I'd argue that Austria had difficulty enough occupying Silesia with the Russians sitting in Berlin. Without it, they'll be struggling not to lose territory. And even if they avoid that, they just lost face on an insane scale: organizing most of Europe into an anti-Prussian league, failing spectacularly, and having to acquiesce to at the very least the unilateral Prussian annexation of Saxony.... Many of the German princes would read that situation as "cowed," and be looking to cut a deal with the obvious victor if they get it in their heads it could keep them their thrones.
 
Is it though? Without Russia in the war Prussia will turn on the Swedes, just as in OTL, and it will be equally easy to push them out of the war. At that point he's only got Austria left on his borders. He would still have to worry about incoming attempts from the west by French-led German armies at threatening his rear, yes. But they'd still be focused on Hannover and marching his full strength to swat things like that was Frederick's first talent, after all.

And any other response rallied by Austria. I find it hard to believe that they placed all their hopes in Russia.

I'd argue that Austria had difficulty enough occupying Silesia with the Russians sitting in Berlin. Without it, they'll be struggling not to lose territory. And even if they avoid that, they just lost face on an insane scale: organizing most of Europe into an anti-Prussian league, failing spectacularly, and having to acquiesce to at the very least the unilateral Prussian annexation of Saxony.... Many of the German princes would read that situation as "cowed," and be looking to cut a deal with the obvious victor if they get it in their heads it could keep them their thrones.
How is Prussia annexing Saxony in this situation exactly? I missed the explanation here.

I don't want to say this is impossible, but I think Frederick is going to wind up over his head - Austria may have been a sluggish and inefficient state, but it was stubborn. And Prussia's resources are kind of slender.
 
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