WI: Empress Elizabeth dies in 1755 - and no Diplomatic Revolution?

As it says on the tin, mostly, but:

WI: Smallpox or a carriage accident or murder or handwaviumitis kills Empress Elizabeth of Russia in 1755 and Peter III comes to power just before an aborted (in TTL) Diplomatic Revolution?

France and Prussia maintain or renew their alliance just as a Prussophile gains the throne of Russia. Austria and Prussia are on a timer for war and Great Britain and France are already escalating their own colonial conflict. Austria and Britain are both less than pleased by the circumstances, but with Hanover vulnerable and with no more time for Austria to buildup before someone pulls the trigger they...

1. Could the Austro-British alliance fire the first shot on the continent in this scenario?

2. Would Peter choose to stay out of the war for a few years before entering on the Franco-Prussian side? Or might Russia enter the war immediately on the Franco-Prussian side from 1756?

3. Spain naturally goes with France, but how soon?

4. What is likely to happen with Sweden? Portugal? The lesser German states?

5. Any additional thoughts or ideas?
 
I think a lot of people overlook Pyotr III's ability to rule his country, thanks to the work of Ekaterina II. I know I certainly did before reading Elena Palmer's biography on him. Whether he truly was as Prussophile as everyone makes out, I couldn't say. He did realise that at the point of Russia's volte face that England and Prussia could perhaps offer more as allies than as enemies, and that France and Austria would never truly allow Russia her place in the sun in Europe.

Here's what I do know, he was planning on invading Denmark in order to reattach Schleswig to Holstein, and had built up some good alliances with his relatives in Sweden and the kings of Prussia and England. Unfortunately, in Russia this was painted as a mad unpatriotic war, and Katya seized on it as a pretext for her coup.

I think if Peter had secured his north-German principality against Danish/Prussian aggression, we might see a very different German future taking shape. Especially, if it becomes apparent that Holstein is not to be easily pushed around, the problem is that it will make alliances with natural allies such as Prussia/Hannover/Denmark more difficult.
 
One important factor is the state of Peter's relationship with his wife Catherine in 1755. By the time Elizabeth actually died in 1761 the relationship between the two had completely broken down and Catherine was already planning her coup but had to bide her time for a few months because she was pregnant by her lover Orlov. In 1755 the relationship wasn't nearly as bad. I remember reading in biographies of Catherine that when she was having her affair with Stanislas Poniatowski, Peter had also got involved with Elizabeth Vorontzova and at times the two couples used to essentially double date! SO...assuming Peter didn't try to send Catherine to a convent and she didn't try to depose him, she might well have had some influence on his political decision making. From the biographies I've met the two did seem to maintain a reasonably friendly relationship until surprisingly late in Elizabeth's reign. Catherine might have persuaded him to stay out of the war for a bit until they were certain which was the better side to support, and she might also have talked him out of wasting Russian reserves on a war for the relatively unimportant duchy of Schleswig. I know it was very important to Peter on a personal level but I can't see how important it would have been for Russia.
 
As it says on the tin, mostly, but:

WI: Smallpox or a carriage accident or murder or handwaviumitis kills Empress Elizabeth of Russia in 1755 and Peter III comes to power just before an aborted (in TTL) Diplomatic Revolution?

France and Prussia maintain or renew their alliance just as a Prussophile gains the throne of Russia. Austria and Prussia are on a timer for war and Great Britain and France are already escalating their own colonial conflict. Austria and Britain are both less than pleased by the circumstances, but with Hanover vulnerable and with no more time for Austria to buildup before someone pulls the trigger they...

1. Could the Austro-British alliance fire the first shot on the continent in this scenario?

2. Would Peter choose to stay out of the war for a few years before entering on the Franco-Prussian side? Or might Russia enter the war immediately on the Franco-Prussian side from 1756?

3. Spain naturally goes with France, but how soon?

4. What is likely to happen with Sweden? Portugal? The lesser German states?

5. Any additional thoughts or ideas?

1755 is a much too late starting point.

The break-up between France and Prussia occured during the austrian succession war when Prussia made a separate peace. This is why France had to find new alliances and the process actively began in 1750 at Kaunitz's initiative.
 
Hard to say. Russia could end up allied with Britain and Prussia, but little chance of France remaining allied with Berlin. I'd guess we'd see Russia, Prussia and Britain vs Austria, France and Poland (the last to counter the Russians).
 
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