WI: Emperor Maurice Remains in Power

Let us say for the purposes of this scenario that the Byzantine Emperor Maurice opts to forgo his Balkan Campaign, at least temporarily, rather than wintering the troops north of the Danube due to budget problems, leading to the cascade of mutiny eventually leading to the army's declaration in favor of Phocas.

How does Maurice's continued occupation of the Eastern Roman throne affect the Empire's near-term prospects, both internally and externally? It's unlikely that a near-future war with the Sassanids would occur, at least one in the manner of the disastrous 602-628 conflict, meaning that the two powers probably remain at an impasse for the time being. Presuming that a war similar in magnitude and effect doesn't happen anytime soon, this leads to the Sasanian Empire most likely not succumbing to bankruptcy and political instability as it did postwar.

Moreover, there is the possibility that Muhammad's founding of Islam is not butterflied, which if it manages to spread in a manner similar to OTL would lead to the first caliphate (and with it a mostly-unified Arabia) facing a pair of healthy empires rather than one bankrupt and one collapsing one, most likely either hemming in expansionist ambitions for the time being or diverting them to another direction. How might the corralling of the early Caliphate (if it came to existence) impact the development of Islamic belief/doctrine and impact its spread?
 
I think this is likely one of the greater PoDs. Maurice is friendly with Persia, and could maintain and reinforce long-term good relations. I'm quite a fan of it. I reckon it'd probably lead to a new healthy period for the Empire, consolidating the Exarchates and maintaining secure control of Syria. Further, it opens the door to resolving the Balkan problem more slowly, only after securing Italian revenues.

The Balkan campaign is important, especially north of the Danube, as it secures the Danube as an avenue for logistics and trade in such a way as to secure the Balkans permenantly. It might have taken till Maurices heir, but if he can secure Italy, and THEN use those revenues to slowly clear out of the Getae region, river by river, he could then look to Pannonia, Dacia and the Carpathians for campaigns that can bring a dynasty prestige and of course, mines/farmland for subsidising the armys pay.

Basically, Maurice staying on the throne leads to really good things for a South Eastern Eastern Med Imperial Heartland, but doesn't eliminate the need for Exarchates, likely meaning that Africa, Spain, and at best S.France are Exarchates, whilst Italy is hard to call, being so close to the heartland.
 
Maurice was born in 539. In 602, he was 63. Healthy, but not unlikely to die for natural causes soon. His heir Theodosius was 19.

Well, considering Maurice thrones the current Shah, and I think adopted him, chances are Theo may benefit from his support.

19 year old emperor with a Persian Godfather situation sounds like a great period of peace for the Empire. Perhaps some European conflict, leaving him to be an old man by the time the Caliphate comes a-calling. #BeatRomanTimeline

If I recall from a map conquest but didn't Maurice intend to have his sons inherit portions of the empire?

First I've heard of this. I'm intrigued.
 
Well, considering Maurice thrones the current Shah, and I think adopted him, chances are Theo may benefit from his support.

19 year old emperor with a Persian Godfather situation sounds like a great period of peace for the Empire. Perhaps some European conflict, leaving him to be an old man by the time the Caliphate comes a-calling. #BeatRomanTimeline



First I've heard of this. I'm intrigued.
I believe it was from MoTF 80: Risorgimento
 
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