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Otl Komei died due to taking a smallpox vaccine. lets say he doesnt take it. from what david calman says in his book the nature of Japanese militarism, Komei and the young shogun Keiko were reconciling that relations between the shogunate and the court were improving and japanese were going abroad to genuinely learn and study western techniques. and so long as Komei was alive the Satcho could not gain power. Thus if Komei lives and we see a mending of distrust between Yoshinobu and Komei could we see a surviving tokugawa shogunate? Since in otl it was because Komei died that Satcho was able to hold sway over the young meiji and cause a civil war to happen. If the shogunate retains control of Japan in what direction does Japan develop?