WI Elisabeth Farnese dies in childbirth?

If Elisabeth Farnese had died while giving birth to the IOTL Charles III of Spain, who possibly could be the next wife of Philip V? Could he not remarry? And what would happen with the succession of Parma?
 
Does Charles III survive?

If he does, then obviously he is the heir to Parma. The Two Sicilies may still be conquered in the War of Polish Succession (assuming no butterflies) or another similar war, and the powers won't allow Spain to have a foothold in Italy, so Charles will become King of Naples and Sicily as OTL, with his Italian domains passing to his children. A PoD in 1716 allows Luis I and Fernando VI to have surviving sons, so the Spanish throne may not go to Charles at all. If it does, Spanish Italy will go to Charles' younger son(s), while if Charles never becomes King of Spain, his line just becomes an Italian cadet branch like the OTL Two Sicilies and Parma branches.

If Carlos dies young, then there is more pressure on his elder brothers to produce issue, and if they fail then Spain maybe falls into another War of Succession. With regard to Parma, the heir is either Mary of Modena (widow of James II of England, etc.) or Rinaldo d'Este, Duke of Modena. Both are descended from Ranuccio I of Parma via his two daughters, who both married the same guy. The exact line of succession depends on the exact application of semi-Salic law, but I would assume that Parma would pass to Mary's son in the same way as it worked with Charles III IOTL. BTW the new rightful successor to the Medici' as Grand Duke of Tuscany would, I think, be a member of the Orsini family, descended from a daughter of Cosimo I. This one death will therefore change the outcome of the War of the Polish Succession tremendously, and I can't really get my head around the ramifications.
 
Does Charles III survive?

If he does, then obviously he is the heir to Parma. The Two Sicilies may still be conquered in the War of Polish Succession (assuming no butterflies) or another similar war, and the powers won't allow Spain to have a foothold in Italy, so Charles will become King of Naples and Sicily as OTL, with his Italian domains passing to his children. A PoD in 1716 allows Luis I and Fernando VI to have surviving sons, so the Spanish throne may not go to Charles at all. If it does, Spanish Italy will go to Charles' younger son(s), while if Charles never becomes King of Spain, his line just becomes an Italian cadet branch like the OTL Two Sicilies and Parma branches.

If Carlos dies young, then there is more pressure on his elder brothers to produce issue, and if they fail then Spain maybe falls into another War of Succession. With regard to Parma, the heir is either Mary of Modena (widow of James II of England, etc.) or Rinaldo d'Este, Duke of Modena. Both are descended from Ranuccio I of Parma via his two daughters, who both married the same guy. The exact line of succession depends on the exact application of semi-Salic law, but I would assume that Parma would pass to Mary's son in the same way as it worked with Charles III IOTL. BTW the new rightful successor to the Medici' as Grand Duke of Tuscany would, I think, be a member of the Orsini family, descended from a daughter of Cosimo I. This one death will therefore change the outcome of the War of the Polish Succession tremendously, and I can't really get my head around the ramifications.

I'm assuming that Charles III dies too, in order to make things more interesting.

As far as I could find, by the time of Gian Gastone de Medici death there were no Orsini alive that were from the bloodline of Cosimo I's daughter. Their claim should have passed to the Duke of Guastalla, Giuseppe Maria Gonzaga, who also would die childless in 1746. After him, the claim goes to a minor Spanish noble, Isidro Manuel Manrique de La Cerda, 13th count of Paredes de Nava. But I believe it would be too low birth for the great powers even consider him as an option. And after him, Camillo Antonio Borghese, Prince of Sulmona (again, too low nobility).

If we ignore the descendants of Isabella de Medici (who married into the Orsini family) than the next claim goes to the descendants of her sister Virginia, who married Cesare d'Este, duke of Modena. So, the heir to Tuscany now would be either James Stuart or the Duke of Modena, Rinaldo III d'Este.
 
OK. Cosimo III tried to leave Tuscany to the Duke of Modena, but never to the Duke of Parma, who had a better claim. Thus, he would be liable ITTL to favour Rinaldo d'Este over the much more minor Duke of Guastalla. Let's take it as read that the course of the War of Polish Succession goes generally as it did in our history, just to save our own sanity. However, instead of Carlos leading a Spanish Army from Parma to conquer Naples and Sicily, Parma instead belongs to Giacopo Stuarto, so Spain has to launch a sea-borne invasion. Additionally, there is no hope amongst the inhabitants of Naples that they will be independent of Spain under a younger brother, so Spain might come out of the war without complete control of the Neapolitan mainland.

In the Treaty of Vienna:
1) Stanislaw Leszczynski is deposed as king of Poland. He is given a replacement which will then go to France upon his death. This may as well be Lorraine.
2) Francois Etienne of Lorraine needs compensation. With Naples still being contested, it is decided that he will become King of Naples, especially since his lands will go to the Habsburgs anyway when he marries Maria Theresa. Austria therefore is denied territorial expansion in Italy. Spain gets Sicily.
3) Francesco III of Modena, whose father Rinaldo had been persuaded by his nephew, the Duke of Parma, to side against Austria, is rewarded by being recognised as heir of Tuscany pursuant to the negotiations carried out by the late Cosimo III.

If the descendants of Rinaldo or Mary of Modena die out, they are each others' heirs. This would produce a genuine counterweight to Piedmont-Sardinia in central Italy.

Either Fernando VI has kids, or the throne of Spain is in crisis. This is likely to be extremely complex, due to various renunciations and the Pragmatic Sanction.
 
Louise Adelaide de Bourbon (1696-1750) was a French Princess of the Blood. She was the daughter of François Louis, Prince of Conti and Marie Thérèse de Bourbon.
Suppose King Philip V and Louise Adelaide marry.
Their children are:
Francis (Francisco)
Maria Clementina
Juan
Philip
Isabella Theresa
 
OK. Cosimo III tried to leave Tuscany to the Duke of Modena, but never to the Duke of Parma, who had a better claim. Thus, he would be liable ITTL to favour Rinaldo d'Este over the much more minor Duke of Guastalla. Let's take it as read that the course of the War of Polish Succession goes generally as it did in our history, just to save our own sanity. However, instead of Carlos leading a Spanish Army from Parma to conquer Naples and Sicily, Parma instead belongs to Giacopo Stuarto, so Spain has to launch a sea-borne invasion. Additionally, there is no hope amongst the inhabitants of Naples that they will be independent of Spain under a younger brother, so Spain might come out of the war without complete control of the Neapolitan mainland.

Would Britain allow James Stuart to receive Parma? I mean, wouldn't they put diplomatical pressure in order to it never to happen?
 
Either Fernando VI has kids, or the throne of Spain is in crisis. This is likely to be extremely complex, due to various renunciations and the Pragmatic Sanction.

Unless Philip V remarries. I'm not sure if Louise Adelaide would be considered important enough to him.
 
Or alternatively they demand he renounce all claim to England in exchange.

Britain didn't have much influence in the Med at this point. As far as I know they weren't a signatory of any of the various treaties over Tuscany or the Italian settlement that came from the Polish succession war. So chances are the British would bitch and make threats but really Duke James of Parma would work out quite well for them. That would make the Stuarts foreign, Italian monarchs. Basically the worst possible thing in the eyes of the British public.
 
Britain didn't have much influence in the Med at this point. As far as I know they weren't a signatory of any of the various treaties over Tuscany or the Italian settlement that came from the Polish succession war. So chances are the British would bitch and make threats but really Duke James of Parma would work out quite well for them. That would make the Stuarts foreign, Italian monarchs. Basically the worst possible thing in the eyes of the British public.

Plus, they would be distracted from plotting invasions by actually having something to do all day apart from lust after a land they could hardly remember.

Felipe V also remarrying would solve the Spanish question.
 
OK. Cosimo III tried to leave Tuscany to the Duke of Modena, but never to the Duke of Parma, who had a better claim. Thus, he would be liable ITTL to favour Rinaldo d'Este over the much more minor Duke of Guastalla. Let's take it as read that the course of the War of Polish Succession goes generally as it did in our history, just to save our own sanity. However, instead of Carlos leading a Spanish Army from Parma to conquer Naples and Sicily, Parma instead belongs to Giacopo Stuarto, so Spain has to launch a sea-borne invasion. Additionally, there is no hope amongst the inhabitants of Naples that they will be independent of Spain under a younger brother, so Spain might come out of the war without complete control of the Neapolitan mainland.

In the Treaty of Vienna:
1) Stanislaw Leszczynski is deposed as king of Poland. He is given a replacement which will then go to France upon his death. This may as well be Lorraine.
2) Francois Etienne of Lorraine needs compensation. With Naples still being contested, it is decided that he will become King of Naples, especially since his lands will go to the Habsburgs anyway when he marries Maria Theresa. Austria therefore is denied territorial expansion in Italy. Spain gets Sicily.
3) Francesco III of Modena, whose father Rinaldo had been persuaded by his nephew, the Duke of Parma, to side against Austria, is rewarded by being recognised as heir of Tuscany pursuant to the negotiations carried out by the late Cosimo III.

If the descendants of Rinaldo or Mary of Modena die out, they are each others' heirs. This would produce a genuine counterweight to Piedmont-Sardinia in central Italy.

Either Fernando VI has kids, or the throne of Spain is in crisis. This is likely to be extremely complex, due to various renunciations and the Pragmatic Sanction.


I like this. Perhaps without Elizabeth there is no Italian Policy in Madrid at all and perhaps they do not involve themselves in the War of Polish Succession. A continued Austrian Naples is intriguing. I assume it would be treated as Tuscany was and pass to the second son of Maria Theresa.

As for the Spanish Succession issue. It is probable that Felipe V would remarry (as someone mentioned already) but it would certainly be to someone less strident, crafty and ambitious that Elizabeth Farnese (because who had more of those characteristics than her?)
 
As for the Spanish Succession issue. It is probable that Felipe V would remarry (as someone mentioned already) but it would certainly be to someone less strident, crafty and ambitious that Elizabeth Farnese (because who had more of those characteristics than her?)

So, maybe his wife could be Charlotte Aglaé d'Orléans, as a link to the French Bourbons? Or Maria Josepha of Austria, as a diplomatical agreement with the Habsburgs? There is also Maria Anna Karoline of Bavaria, or Infanta Francisca Josefa of Portugal.
 
(...)
In the Treaty of Vienna:
(...)
2) Francois Etienne of Lorraine needs compensation. With Naples still being contested, it is decided that he will become King of Naples, especially since his lands will go to the Habsburgs anyway when he marries Maria Theresa. Austria therefore is denied territorial expansion in Italy. Spain gets Sicily.

(...)
Actually the house of Lorraine (the Vaudemont branch of the house of Ardennes-Metz/Chatenois) had a claim of the kingdom of Naples, which (the claim) they inherited from the house of Valois-Anjou.
So Naples would be a plausible possibility. It, like OTL Tuscany, might still become a secundogeniture though.
 
Well, a lady considered ahead of Farnese was Archduchess Maria Magdalena of Austria. Louis XIV had been offered her hand for Anjou BEFORE he married la Savoyana in 1701. And if Maria Magdalena is perhaps too old, what about Maria Anna Karoline of Bavaria (only daughter of Maximilian II). Alternatively, one of the d'Este girls (Amalia Giuseppina or Enrichetta) could make for an interesting match.

PS: Apologies if I necro'ed
 
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