WI: Einstein's other letter to FDR

Albert Einstein, upon careful consideration of what an Atomic Bomb would be capable of, and its scary ramifications, doesn't urge FDR to build the A-Bomb; indeed, Einstein, after deep consideration into the matter, decides that he will attempt to focus instead on the plight of Europe's Jews, for which he will ultimately become the Second President of Israel after the War.

But the outcome is simple: No Manhattan project. Japan either decides to surrender after prolonged bombing (which is very plausible, the A Bomb was just another means to wipe out a city), or the USA launches Downfall.

Nor does this rule out the creation of the Atomic bomb in the future. But how does history develop if the A Bomb is, at most, one more insane idea in Hitler's notes in 1945?
 
The Manhattan Project still goes thru. The letter, which was written by Leo Szilard and only signed by Einstein accelerated the project, it did not initiate it. Einstein's contribution to the bomb itself is pretty limited and there was a large amount of research going on before 1939.

I guess a possibility is that the British and later the Soviets would develop the bomb in order to offset US military capability in the early 1950s, but the US eventually builds the bomb.
 
Fair enough.

Just that the situation might be entirely different if Japan throws in the towel before the Atomic Bomb is actually tested (Depending on the delays involved, Japan might well surrender before the bomb is used.)

Indeed, I think that even without the bomb the Emperor would probably surrender to save the lives of his subjects, as he did OTL, on a similar timeframe. The Firebombing of cities was just as nasty as the A Bombing.

So, if the A bomb is delayed 6-12 months, and Japan folds, does the USA finish the Manhattan project or does it allow that to lapse also?
 
Fair enough.

Just that the situation might be entirely different if Japan throws in the towel before the Atomic Bomb is actually tested (Depending on the delays involved, Japan might well surrender before the bomb is used.)

Indeed, I think that even without the bomb the Emperor would probably surrender to save the lives of his subjects, as he did OTL, on a similar timeframe. The Firebombing of cities was just as nasty as the A Bombing.

So, if the A bomb is delayed 6-12 months, and Japan folds, does the USA finish the Manhattan project or does it allow that to lapse also?

Given the effort that would have been put into it, I don't think they would shut it down - maybe they reduce the priority, but the Manhattan scientists ould still be working towards a bomb. They do have the Soviets to deal with, remember?
 
My understanding is that the key event in the creation of the Manhattan Project and hence the atomic bomb wasn't, contrary to popular opinion the Einstein-Szillard memo to FDR, which was written in 1939.

The letter resulted in the S-1 Uranium Committee, which basically did very little and had a tiny budget. This was partly due to the fact that their understanding was that tons of Uranium 235 would be required, and hence the project was not very practical.

In 1940, the British (in fact Otto Frisch and Rudolf Peierls working for the British) correctly appreciated that the amount of Uranium 235 required was far less than previously thought (pounds rather than tons).

In late 1940, the British MAUD committee produced a report outlining the feasibility of the bomb, which was sent to the Americans but ignored. The British started their "Tube Alloys" project but basically couldn't afford to prioritise it.

The key event was the visit of Mark Oliphant of the MAUD committee to the USA in 1941, where he impressed on the US scientists the feasibility and urgency of manufacturing the bomb. After these meetings, in December 1941 Vannevar Bush created the Office of Scientific Research and Development, after that the Manhattan Project took off and quickly eclipsed the British project, which was eventually (1943) folded into it.

So, if you are looking for a PoD to delay the Allied Atomic Bomb then Oliphant's flight to the USA crashing wold be ideal, however I doubt that would stop it completely, just delay it, eventually the British would send another representative and/or an American scientist would make the correct calculations.

References:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Einstein-Szilárd_letter
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S-1_Uranium_Committee
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frisch-Peierls_memorandum
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MAUD_Committee
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tube_Alloys
 
The Manhattan Project still goes thru. The letter, which was written by Leo Szilard and only signed by Einstein accelerated the project, it did not initiate it. Einstein's contribution to the bomb itself is pretty limited and there was a large amount of research going on before 1939.

I guess a possibility is that the British and later the Soviets would develop the bomb in order to offset US military capability in the early 1950s, but the US eventually builds the bomb.

Hmmm... if the project is sped-up by the letter, that would mean it would have been slower without it (due to less resources diverted to it). That means there's no A-bomb ready by July 45. The question is, how much later? We'd be likely in for a prolonged WWII. Obviously, if there was no bomb by October 45, it seems likely the US would have started with their invasion of mainland Japan... a very bloody affair. Then again, if the development of the bomb was foreseeable by then, maybe the development would have been delayed.

OTOH, the possibility of firebombing Japan into surrender might still be an option. I'm not sure.
 
Hmmm... if the project is sped-up by the letter, that would mean it would have been slower without it (due to less resources diverted to it).

Except, as I was trying to show in my previous post, the Einstein-Szillard letter effectively didn't speed the project up.
 
Hmmm... if the project is sped-up by the letter, that would mean it would have been slower without it (due to less resources diverted to it). That means there's no A-bomb ready by July 45. The question is, how much later? We'd be likely in for a prolonged WWII. Obviously, if there was no bomb by October 45, it seems likely the US would have started with their invasion of mainland Japan... a very bloody affair. Then again, if the development of the bomb was foreseeable by then, maybe the development would have been delayed.

OTOH, the possibility of firebombing Japan into surrender might still be an option. I'm not sure.

I think it would not be wrong to consider that 'accelerating' a project in a wartime bureacracy is 'Move this project from the 'Fast Track list' to the 'Faster Track list'. You know, cuts red tape but everything else associated with the project moves along as fast as usual.
 
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