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In a scenario where the Middle East / North Africa are divided along ethnic and sectarian lines and where even minorities such as the the Berbers and Turkish Alevis have states of their own, how would they have fared up to the present?

Especially in a region where ambitions of hegemony from the Sunni Arabs, Turkish Ottoman-revivalists and Shia Iranians are kept in check.

Also, how would a divided Middle East / North Africa be influenced by the Cold War or the Arab-Israeli conflict compared to the OTL, let alone impact the rest of the world for other reasons?



Alongside existing nations both unchanged (Oman, Qatar, UAE, Kuwait, Tunisia and Libya) and reduced (Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Turkey, Algeria and Morocco), the States that I'd envision being established (in terms of territory rather than name) in the ATL are:
  • United Kurdistan
  • Greater Azerbaijan
  • Shia Arab state (out of Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Iran) surrounding an isolated Kuwait, similar to Ralph Peter's map.
  • Greater Jordan (including the Saudi provinces of Tabuk and Jawf)
  • Druze Republic (composed of Syrian governorates of Al-Suwayda, Daraa and the Rif Dimashq districts of Qatana and Darayya south of Damascus)
  • Alawite state
  • Israel (Post-1967 plus Sinai)
  • Greece (Megali Idea sans South Bulgaria)
  • Republic of Pontus
  • Turkey (central Anatolia)
  • Alevi state (central/eastern Anatolia bordering United Kurdistan)
  • Armenia (Greater Armenia sans Pontus)
  • United Balochistan
  • Berber state (much of Morocco, parts of Mali and Algeria)
  • Syrian-Iraqi Sunni state
  • Greater Yemen
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