WI: EDSA Revolution Fails

In 1986, the EDSA Revolution toppled Ferdinand Marcos and Corazon Aquino replaced him as president. Is there a way for the EDSA Revolution to fail in its objectives? A minor PoD that could be considered is that Marcos actually gives permission to shoot at the protesters, though I am not sure how this works.

What is the effect of a failed EDSA Revolution in the Philippines? Could Marcos be overthrown later on, or would he die of natural causes and trigger a power struggle?
 
I wouldn't say it was impossible for EDSA to fail, but once Fidel Ramos declared for the revolution (b/c they finally had civilian leader to rally around in Corazon Aquino) Marcos had no army to stop it and the cops would back down against tanks.

So say the military stays "loyal". The economy was sinking and nobody liked Marcos by that point. He could've sputtered along another few years due to an anthill mob of different factions getting in each other's way to remove him preventing a large enough consensus allowing another leader to assume power in Manila. The Eighties are even more of a Lost Decade for the Philippines.
The Communist and Moro insurgencies become more of a threat, though IDK if you could have a Colombian-level uncivil-war between paramilitaries in the Philippines.
By 1990, I'd say the US pulls the plug on supporting Ferdinand and Imelda Marcos once it's clear they're going to be hung from the nearest banyan if they stayed.

YMMDV from my take on it.

Anyhow,
 
Could Fidel Ramos try to launch a coup of his own in order to topple Marcos? There were several coup attempts against Cory's regime though between 1987 and 1989, and I'm also wondering if the Philippines could have ended up ruled by a military junta in the event of Marcos's death, in a similar fashion to OTL Burma.
 
Marcos knew what was afoot but acted too late to nip it in the bud. The easiest POD is simply having Marcos deny permission for Ninoy's assassination back in '83. International community simply regards him as an embarrassment rather than an active liability, and foreign investment doesn't drop like a stone. If Ninoy stays in exile or dies while being treated in the US then things will be outwardly fine. Marcos is only making the biggest decisions at this point, daily administration is in the hands of his inner circle. Once he dies the military will pull an Argentina and throw his family out on their ears- they loathed Imelda. Perhaps install Laurel, who Marcos had coopted, as a figurehead civilian president until elections could be held.
 
You mean, let Ninoy live but does he still return to the Philippines though? Could we also witness a Burma-like situation where the military junta takes control?
 
In 1986, the EDSA Revolution toppled Ferdinand Marcos and Corazon Aquino replaced him as president. Is there a way for the EDSA Revolution to fail in its objectives? A minor PoD that could be considered is that Marcos actually gives permission to shoot at the protesters, though I am not sure how this works.

What is the effect of a failed EDSA Revolution in the Philippines? Could Marcos be overthrown later on, or would he die of natural causes and trigger a power struggle?

A good POD is that Tadiar's Marines overreact and fire into the crowd after he requests to be let through Ortigas Avenue.

And if the revolution fails, I bet it would end in the military overthrowing Marcos, and perhaps shooting Ver for good measure.
 
If EDSA Revolution fails, Ferdinand Marcos will going to die by next year, giving more pressure in his health as he has had to deal factional rivalries between Imelda and the RAM led by Enrile, Honasan, and Ramos.

Once FM dies, the succession will be a messy one and perhaps bring the Philippines to a full-blown civil war as communists and Muslim separatists will be empowered as their common enemy, the Philippine government and its armed forces, is in shambles.
 
So how is this hypothetical Philippine Civil War of 1986 will play out? The government will certainly have at its disposal the various pro-government militias, though the Aquino loyalistas will definitely be a wild card since they distrust the military. The military might have to shoot Fidel Ramos if he declares for the revolution, although in the end it might be Gregorio Honasan becoming a new dictator.
 
Wouldn't be in 86. Marcos has about 3 years more to live, especially as he'll still be in theoretical power. Maybe in 89?

Maybe it'll be Ver vs. Honasan vs. any survivng Marcos?
 
If Ver was shot in '86, then it might be Honasan and the Reform the Armed Forces Movement (RAM) vs the Marcos faction vs Aquino faction. How bloody can this civil war get, and would there be any international response?
 
If Ver was shot in '86, then it might be Honasan and the Reform the Armed Forces Movement (RAM) vs the Marcos faction vs Aquino faction. How bloody can this civil war get, and would there be any international response?

Likely the US would either back one side or evacuate. Probably the first, because fuck the dirty commies, that's why.
 
Assuming that the NPA would be wiped out, the US has to decide on choosing between the Honasan/RAM, Marcos faction, and Aquino faction. On the other hand, how can the AFP be modernized enough to fight the NPA and the Muslim separatists on a decent footing? I'm also thinking if the Philippine military might seek other countries for procurement of weapons.
 
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It is plausible for Enrile to be in power after everything is over. By looking at OTL, you would notice that while Ramos managed to become a president after C. Aquino. Ernile continues to persist in the political environment of Philippines.

In the end I would ask if EDSA fails would it break the Philippines or change it into a regional powerhouse in Asia.
 
It is plausible for Enrile to be in power after everything is over. By looking at OTL, you would notice that while Ramos managed to become a president after C. Aquino. Ernile continues to persist in the political environment of Philippines.

In the end I would ask if EDSA fails would it break the Philippines or change it into a regional powerhouse in Asia.

Or worse, would we see a Bosnia/Ireland-like situation in the Philippines? I mean, I don't know if Enrile would be a good leader since he might be too old by then.
 
Or worse, would we see a Bosnia/Ireland-like situation in the Philippines? I mean, I don't know if Enrile would be a good leader since he might be too old by then.

Probably more like Liberia if the US doesn't intervene quickly. Which brings me do ask, who would Reagan pick? I mean, all three are pretty anti-Communist, so I suspect he might back Aquino.
 
Reagan picks Aquino, then Honasan and the RAM would have to search for other Western allies in procuring weapons. I guess he'll need to wait until 1989 or 1990 when Honasan could buy surplus ex-East German weapons. Or buy weapons from Israel. What do you mean, the Philippines might end up like Liberia?
 
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I was also thinking, would it be really chilling if in the scenario where Ninoy doesn't get assassinated, Marcos dies on the day of what IOTL is going to be the actual day of the EDSA revolution? If Ninoy survives, then would it butterfly the political careers of Cory and Noynoy? This would certainly have butterflies down the road, the most important being no "Kristine a Minute" talk show.
 
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