The 2002 German federal election resulted in a very narrow, come-from-behind win for Gerhard Shroeder and his SPD/Green coalition.
What if the CDU/CSU/FDP coalition under Edmund Stoiber won, as had been originally expected? I imagine Stoiber stays out of Iraq, but *may* send peacekeepers in the aftermath. Does Stoiber make the same labor market reforms that Shroeder did?
In real life, these reforms split the SPD, and contributed both to Shroeder calling an early election in 2005 and subsequently losing to the opposition, now under Merkel.
If Stoiber is Chancellor, how do the 2005 or 2006 elections go? What about 2009/2010? Who's the leader of the SPD, and who is chancellor now?