WI: Edmund Stoiber won the '02 German Election?

The 2002 German federal election resulted in a very narrow, come-from-behind win for Gerhard Shroeder and his SPD/Green coalition.

What if the CDU/CSU/FDP coalition under Edmund Stoiber won, as had been originally expected? I imagine Stoiber stays out of Iraq, but *may* send peacekeepers in the aftermath. Does Stoiber make the same labor market reforms that Shroeder did?

In real life, these reforms split the SPD, and contributed both to Shroeder calling an early election in 2005 and subsequently losing to the opposition, now under Merkel.

If Stoiber is Chancellor, how do the 2005 or 2006 elections go? What about 2009/2010? Who's the leader of the SPD, and who is chancellor now?
 
Just as Nixon was the only one able to go to China Schroder was the only one able to reform the labour market without being destroyed in the polls. If Stroiber had done Agenda 2020 then you would have seen the CDU lose by a landslide in 2006 or more likely they would shy away because of negative polling.
 
Bavaria would have been kicked out of Germany, and Stoiber impeached as not being a German citizen. :D
 
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