WI : Economic-Political-Cultural consequences of unconquered Aztec-Maya-Inca

Inspired by the thread on Meiji Inca and the Europeans butterflies proceeding from it.

https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/can-the-incas-pull-a-meiji.448982/

If we go from the postulate that Cortes and Pisarro are not as lucky as they were in OTL and stretch it a bit further so that further conquering endeavours from Spain are also consistently thwarted by the Aztecs, Mayas and Tahuantinsuyus, yet add to that the possibility for Spaniards to nevertheless colonise North of the Aztec Empire and so retain access to a bit of silver (Zacatecas and co. is probably not as rich as Potosi but it's better than nothing)...

...then: What would be the consequences of not having access to all the resources of these territories, for Spain, for Europe, and, considering the nascent international trade, the world?

a) for Spain itself as it has some successful colonies but no huge access to silver
b) for The Habsburg Empire with all the current and incoming changes (30 years war, Dutch independence...)
c) for the rest of Europe regarding local power balance, Mediterranean trade and colonial ventures (especially Portugal, at least at first)
d) for Asian trade, more specifically China which does not benefit from Spanish silver ITTL.
e) for the Aztecs, Mayas and Incas as potentially viable trade partners/ideological competitors for Europe
 
d) for Asian trade, more specifically China which does not benefit from Spanish silver ITTL.
Recent research (especially the work on Ming currency by Richard von Glahn) suggests that China's use of Spanish silver has been greatly exaggerated, and Japan's Iwami mines were far more important for the Chinese silver supply than Potosi. The correlation between Philippine silver supplies and Ming collapse have also proven false. Also, the value of silver to gold was falling in the last years of the Ming, which suggest more silver was coming in than was demanded.
fKFC8Opr.png
 
Damn, this new take does indeed debunk assumptions quite a bit! So indeed Ming China would not be too affected then.
 
@Jfoul

Just to be fair. Are you asking for there to be no colonization of Mesoamerica or Andean America by the Spanish or no colonization of the Americas Europeans period? Because the former is unlikely while the latter is ASB. American colonization was not accomplished by blatant conquests. It was done by taking a side during the many local wars in the region and then once the European backed side won, their leaders could be deposed in a decapitation strategy. This makes pretty much a certainty that at minimum the Maya will be conquered since they were divided and feuding states by the time the Spanish arrived, not centralized, top-down empires.
 
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Sorry for the confusion : I'm going for the no Colonisation of Mesoamerica and Andean America by the Spanish. So Cuba, Hispaniola, New Granada, Rio de la Plata (minus the northern Andean part), Florida and the rest are still colonised/colonisable, as is Brazil by Portugal.

Fair point on the Maya, that's a bit of a long stretch. But regarding the Aztecs, I do wonder if in absence of Cortes' stroke of luck, the attempts of the Spaniards to play the kingdoms against one another in the local wars would push back their control of the region for at least several decades (Cortes becomes another failed venture in the eyes of colonial governors, local factions fighting the aztecs lose trust in the viability of Spaniards...) , and engage more resources, making the overall endeavour more costly, and thus impact Spanish economy at large.
 
a) for Spain itself as it has some successful colonies but no huge access to silver
b) for The Habsburg Empire with all the current and incoming changes (30 years war, Dutch independence...)

I'll limit myself to these two for now. First off the Protestant reformation will still happen. The butterflies are not severe enough to cause Luther not to hammer his message into a church door. The early reformation should proceed as it happened in OTL. Then the butterflies hit and this timeline could turn into a Protestant Wank or not. You could see most of Germany, Bohemia, and Belgium converting to Protestantism. Poland probably wouldn't but it isn't implausible. France is the elephant in the room, if they stay Catholic than the church should be alright, but if they convert or a French king pulls a Henry Viii and establishes his own Gallican Church, than Catholicism as we know it has been fatally fractured.

Most of Spain's European dominions were acquired independently of the Americas. The Spanish acquired the crown of Naples when the Union with Aragon happened. Spanish money and lives would still be bleed to defend the German Habsburgs claims and interests. Charles V will probably become the Emperor even if he has to drain his countries finances to afford the bribes. There are also the geopolitical interests that mean the German Prince ellectors should favor a Spanish Emperor over a French one. I will assume he became emperor like in OTL because if Francis becomes Emperor that is a whole different post.

The 30 years war should not happen as we understand it or should be at least less severe. This means that the German population will be a lot higher and we will not see France dominating the late seventeenth and eighteenth centuries like we saw in OTL. There will be a surplus population of several million Germans that died in OTL living in TTL. Some of that will probably settle Eastern Europe and the Western Hemisphere. The rest will stay in Germany. Up in the air if we would see Germany go through a early demographic transition like France or it would continue to have high population growth like England had. If it is the latter than Germans could be a major force of emigration throughout TTL. The Dutch will become independent and it will not take them 80 years to achieve this unlike in OTL. They could pull most of the the Low countries with them if their capital stays in Antwerp and Flanders becomes Protestant.
 
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France is the elephant in the room, if they stay Catholic than the church should be alright, but if they convert or a French king pulls a Henry Viii and establishes his own Gallican Church, than Catholicism as we know it has been fatally fractured.

Considering that Henri IV that came upon the French throne in 1589 was initially protestant, that's actually a fairly plausible development. Bavaria and Austria would also be closer to a tipping point was, though I'm not sure how likely.

if Francis becomes Emperor that is a whole different post.

That could become full-blown Carolingian empire 2.0 !.... Which could get even more interesting if German kingdoms retain their population.

The Dutch will become independent and it will not take them 80 years to achieve this unlike in OTL.

Entailing an earlier and perhaps wider colonisation for the Dutch, especially if Spain has less power in Americas and Asia, though that would rely on the United Provinces having their navy being on point at an earlier date too...
 
@Jfoul

Just to be fair. Are you asking for there to be no colonization of Mesoamerica or Andean America by the Spanish or no colonization of the Americas Europeans period? Because the former is unlikely while the latter is ASB. American colonization was not accomplished by blatant conquests. It was done by taking a side during the many local wars in the region and then once the European backed side won, their leaders could be deposed in a decapitation strategy. This makes pretty much a certainty that at minimum the Maya will be conquered since they were divided and feuding states by the time the Spanish arrived, not centralized, top-down empires.

Actually it took them the most time to conquer the Maya OTL because it worked the other way around. Decapitating centralized empires causes a power vacuum that's easy to move into. Conquering a single Mayan city state does not create any power vacuums, which is why the Spanish conquered the Aztec and Inca much, much faster than they conquered any of the Maya. And even then we can see from OTL Chan Santa Cruz that the Maya were one of the least subdued conquered populations.

Anyway I agree that American colonization was done by taking sides, but I disagree that it's unlikely that the Spanish wouldn't colonize Mesoamerica/Andean America. For starters, it's not a given that the natives will want to recruit these weird foreigners as their allies. The main allies of the Spanish in the Aztec conquest, the Tlaxcallans, almost slaughtered the Spanish completely before part of them decided to ally with them (and it was a close run decision OTL). Had the decision gone the other way, there would be no Spanish conquest of the Aztecs to speak of. As for the Inca, again the Spanish showed up at a serendipitous civil war moment that would not have occurred at other times. The Spanish conquest of the Maya was facilitated by the power base that they had acquired by taking out the Aztecs, so if Xicotencatl the Younger kills Cortes's expedition, Mesoamerica is probably lost to the Spanish.
 
Actually it took them the most time to conquer the Maya OTL because it worked the other way around. Decapitating centralized empires causes a power vacuum that's easy to move into. Conquering a single Mayan city state does not create any power vacuums, which is why the Spanish conquered the Aztec and Inca much, much faster than they conquered any of the Maya. And even then we can see from OTL Chan Santa Cruz that the Maya were one of the least subdued conquered populations.

The Spanish conquest of the Maya was facilitated by the power base that they had acquired by taking out the Aztecs, so if Xicotencatl the Younger kills Cortes's expedition, Mesoamerica is probably lost to the Spanish.

I see your point but the reason I brought up the Maya is because their Rulers will be going to war with each other regardless of what happens to the Spanish. One Ruler does not want an alliance? Well there are plenty more to pick and choose from. The Maya were a culture not an empire at this point in time. Don't say that a bunch of scheming rival states will collaborate with each other to keep the Spanish out. There is no central government to enforce a policy. Local rivalries mean there will always be a "door" into the region.

Now if you mean "took the longest" because of rebellions and insurgences, that is a whole different topic.

As for the Aztecs, I do not see them lasting more than another century or so just because of the whole "Human Farming" Flower wars for sacrifices. If they were forced to suddenly abandon those things they are going to have a very hard time becuase those things were a very big part of how their religion and society were set up. The Spanish could sell guns to their enemies, like the Tlaxcallans, or the Triple Alliance that was the foundation of their Empire could fall apart. The real interesting question is who or what would have taken their place.
 
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The real interesting question is who or what would have taken their place.

The Tlaxcallans could perhaps play that role. I'm not too knowledgeable about their culture but my guess is that anything is better than Flower Wars. They could also play into the Spaniards divide and conquer strategy, Xicotencatl getting rid of Cortes upon first encounter, waiting for the next expeditions and asking for weapons and help ("Cortes, you say? Doesn't ring a bell."), double crossing the Spaniards once Tenochtitlan is captured. That would mean there is a natural distrust towards the Spaniards from the beginning, but I'm sure that even in OTL Conquistadores didn't have the monopole of treachery.

Now if you mean "took the longest" because of rebellions and insurgences, that is a whole different topic.

The Spaniards could conquest and settle the coast of the Yucatan, but with less money at their disposal and fewer examples of "what good invasion looks like" they would probably struggle much more to push into the depths of the country. They can still play kingdoms against each other but once they succeed, they would probably be more fragile in the face of local insurgencies and rebellions.

Back to the general topic, that makes me think of whether other Spanish colonies would somewhat benefit from the attention diverted from the Aztec-Maya-Inca, would the Caribbean or South American colonies become more attractive in comparison, for increased settlement?
 
My question is, if they survived conquest from other Europeans, get rid of human sacrifice, and survive the plagues, would they adopt European culture and customs, and would they be able to intergrate European weapons in their armies. Now what would eagle warriors be like with muskets?
 
My question is, if they survived conquest from other Europeans, get rid of human sacrifice, and survive the plagues, would they adopt European culture and customs, and would they be able to intergrate European weapons in their armies. Now what would eagle warriors be like with muskets?

Why would they do that?
 
Also I want to ask, if the Aztec, the Maya and the Inca did service Spanish conquest, while Spain colonize the lands around those empires (and group of people) and history continues with minor butterflies, how would the Aztec Empire, the Maya, and the Inca Empire react to the Atlantic Slave Trade? Would they join in the slave trade, and if so, how would they treat African slaves?
 
My thoughts on this scenario are:

For Europeans to be kept at bay the initial repulsion of the Conquistadors needs to be bloody and wounding to the Spanish so they dismiss outright conquest as being inefficient and costly. Best way to do this is an earlier interaction with Europeans that is more gradual and gets the epidemics out of the way first so the natives are rebounding by the time the Spanish have a go. Italians, Basques, Moors? Maybe they got blown over in the 1400's and set up trade outposts in the Caribbean and give the Amerindians a head start to adapt to new conditions, adopt some new tech and augment their trade networks to be more outward looking.

The Aztecs are ultimately going to collapse of their own accord after a few decades since they were brutally unsustainable - at the very least the ruling royal house and priesthood. It's still likely that the City of Tenochtitlan and legacy of Aztec engineering would be preserved as it was on such an exemplary level. I do predict though that there would be revolution in Mexico before the 1500's are out with the Tlaxcalans and Tarascans being the front-runners for succeeding the Aztecs as rulers of Mexico. It is likely with the influx of new technology, presence of outsiders and a collective struggle a unified Mexican identity would take form with the agreed seat of power being in Tenochtitlan. It's not a very stable administrative model at this stage though and equivalent to the HRE at best with a large degree of autonomy between city-states and potentials for periodic wars.

The Maya were divided and vulnerable to conquest as a whole but partly due to this some isolated Mayan cities actually held out longer than any other native civilisation in the Americas (Nojpeten fell to the Spanish in 1697). The geography of the Mayan homeland made military conquest more difficult than in Central Mexico. I can presume that if Central Mexico doesn't fall then the Maya are in with a chance. If the gradual contact scenario is active then maybe a city-state like Tulum could position itself advantageously as a maritime trade hub and monopolise trade along the Yucatan coast and act as a kingmaker among the other states. Mexico is stating to look an awful lot like Japan in the same era with all these polities vying for control and using new tech and trade goods as bargaining chips. As such Mexico and the Maya would undergo consolidation and be centralised, technologically advanced and possibly Christian or Reformed Pagan by 1650.

The Inca or Twantinsuyu were under a much stabler and sustainable economic model than the Mesoamericans, being similar to a feudal of bureaucratic empire like those seen in the Old World rather than a tributary system. They also managed to rule a vast area as testament to their potential as competent governors, all the way from Columbia to Chile and through deserts, mountains and jungles. Provided they can ride out the pestilence early on and access some outside trade goods they should be in a very strong position. It's possibly the full extent of the empire may balkanise into several states through instability. It's unpredictable how things would go in the end but the Andean region could hold it's own as a empire but possibly being more reclusive like Japan or China was. Expect it to maintain a more distinct economic and cultural life, though if it senses the benefit of trading silver, for example, with Europeans it might pursue that market in return for Old World goods and innovations.

If these states pulled off that transition to a globalised world then that would have set a more interesting precedent for colonisation generally. Europeans would still explore and bring the world's trade networks together but possibly with a chauvinistic attitude towards State Civilisations wherever they are and whatever background. If they built, farmed and administered that would be the bar for a civilised society which would be regarded as a partner, not a savage or a subject. It was not inevitable that colonialism went the way it did, through a fluke we could have been sharing the world with advanced American, African and Asian civilisations who would have contributed their own innovations, in their way, to the world today without being so thoroughly diluted by Western culture.
 
Inspired by the thread on Meiji Inca and the Europeans butterflies proceeding from it.

https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/can-the-incas-pull-a-meiji.448982/

If we go from the postulate that Cortes and Pisarro are not as lucky as they were in OTL and stretch it a bit further so that further conquering endeavours from Spain are also consistently thwarted by the Aztecs, Mayas and Tahuantinsuyus, yet add to that the possibility for Spaniards to nevertheless colonise North of the Aztec Empire and so retain access to a bit of silver (Zacatecas and co. is probably not as rich as Potosi but it's better than nothing)...

...then: What would be the consequences of not having access to all the resources of these territories, for Spain, for Europe, and, considering the nascent international trade, the world?

a) for Spain itself as it has some successful colonies but no huge access to silver
b) for The Habsburg Empire with all the current and incoming changes (30 years war, Dutch independence...)
c) for the rest of Europe regarding local power balance, Mediterranean trade and colonial ventures (especially Portugal, at least at first)
d) for Asian trade, more specifically China which does not benefit from Spanish silver ITTL.
e) for the Aztecs, Mayas and Incas as potentially viable trade partners/ideological competitors for Europe

Recent research (especially the work on Ming currency by Richard von Glahn) suggests that China's use of Spanish silver has been greatly exaggerated, and Japan's Iwami mines were far more important for the Chinese silver supply than Potosi. The correlation between Philippine silver supplies and Ming collapse have also proven false. Also, the value of silver to gold was falling in the last years of the Ming, which suggest more silver was coming in than was demanded.
fKFC8Opr.png

If the Spanish did not conquer the Aztecs, the Spanish would not be able to conquer the Bruneian Empire, the Bruneian Empire has conflicts with Northern Luzon(due to them contesting Tondo) and Visayan states(Muslim raids) and the enemies of Bruneians would get some "help" from Portugal.
 
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Here’s my ASB idea.

What if the Ming Dynasty hear stories about the riches of the New world, and decided to send a small treasure fleet east, and discover the vast amount of gold, jade and most importantly to the Chinese, silver, from the Aztecs and the Inca.

They began a trade network, where they send one small fleet once a year, to the New world, and trade for silver, jade and gold from the Aztec and Inca, who get Chinese products, like porcelain, silk, and gunpowder.

Very ASB, but to me, interesting.
 
Here’s my ASB idea.

What if the Ming Dynasty hear stories about the riches of the New world, and decided to send a small treasure fleet east, and discover the vast amount of gold, jade and most importantly to the Chinese, silver, from the Aztecs and the Inca.

They began a trade network, where they send one small fleet once a year, to the New world, and trade for silver, jade and gold from the Aztec and Inca, who get Chinese products, like porcelain, silk, and gunpowder.

Very ASB, but to me, interesting.
There probably would be overseas Chinese communities in time even in an indigenous ruled Mesoamerica and the Andes. Japanese Christians visited the area after all, so it isn't totally unlikely that drawn by a European trading post (which will inevitably exist), the Chinese get some idea to visit at some point. Maybe if the Ming collapses and the Manchu don't take over China, the new dynasty might go for it once they secure their place?
 
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