I agree with this analysis, though I'd be interested to see how it plays out and whether it would consist of Honecker and others fleeing from an armed mob, or whether it would be hard nosed Stasi officers arresting them before things got too out of control.
WI: East Germany pulls a Tinanamen in 1989?
- Thread starter Ismailov
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I agree with this analysis, though I'd be interested to see how it plays out and whether it would consist of Honecker and others fleeing from an armed mob, or whether it would be hard nosed Stasi officers arresting them before things got too out of control.
To be perfectly honest, I doubt the GDR's regime could stay in power for long, even if they had somehow pulled off a general crushing of public protests in the country. With communism collapsing everywhere around and moral/diplomatic and economic support for continued existence dwindling fast, I just cannot fathom how the GDR could survive for long within its existing borders, like some "North Korea of central Europe".
Once the writing was on the wall, not even a domestic (GDR) or foreign (FRG/NATO) military intervention would have changed much. Average citizens, craving for freedom of movement and thought, easily outnumbered the armed forces of the country (even if the Stasi gave the citizens a run for the money with its sheer numbers).
For a comparison, communist Czechoslovakia was in a better economic position at that time, though was about just as dogmatic as the GDR (though less than Romania), in contrast with more liberal-intoned communist Hungary and Poland. And yet, virtually none of its leadership proposed "sending the tanks in to run over protesters". They knew that once the riot police would prove hopeless, it would be all over, sooner or later.
So, I by and large agree with the assessments and reasoning that have already been mentioned by others in this thread. In any case, this has been a very good POD discussion and I've thoroughly enjoyed reading both the "for" and "against" arguments.
Once the writing was on the wall, not even a domestic (GDR) or foreign (FRG/NATO) military intervention would have changed much. Average citizens, craving for freedom of movement and thought, easily outnumbered the armed forces of the country (even if the Stasi gave the citizens a run for the money with its sheer numbers).
For a comparison, communist Czechoslovakia was in a better economic position at that time, though was about just as dogmatic as the GDR (though less than Romania), in contrast with more liberal-intoned communist Hungary and Poland. And yet, virtually none of its leadership proposed "sending the tanks in to run over protesters". They knew that once the riot police would prove hopeless, it would be all over, sooner or later.
So, I by and large agree with the assessments and reasoning that have already been mentioned by others in this thread. In any case, this has been a very good POD discussion and I've thoroughly enjoyed reading both the "for" and "against" arguments.
and with the effective collapse of the GDR government ( at that point Bonn turns round to Moscow and sayseither you do or let us do it) , i see a fair few west German army cars / G-wagen / vans/ trucks disappearing into sheds and coming out painted bright green + white ( polizei) or all over royal blue (THW) and having a flashing blue light or two lashed on , and the civpop of West germany keeping very quiet about how they are able to provide the civilian policing and emergency technical infrastructure / rescue / humanitarian support to the east without apparent diminuition of the services in FRG territory ....
What if Poland and/or the CSSR stay communist, too? Or what about a GDR basically cut back to the Tal der Ahnungslosen?
In OTL, an event that still makes me giggle is that once the dye was cast, even Hoenecker voted in favour of the motion to remove him from power, so ingrained was the habit of voting with the majority.
ITL, I could see Photos and video footage of NVA Troops firing on protesters hitting the international news big time. At which point, Gorbachev would publically AND privately condemn the actions. I could see the BRD requesting a motion of condemnation in the UN, getting it and potentially the Soviet Union either abstaining, or actually voting in favour of it.
While the West German military would not take action, private individuals most likely would. Symbolic protests to start with - cutting the wire at border posts while Border gaurds look on from both sides. Mass walk overs, not in Berlin, but elsewhere, DDR citizens, while DDR border gaurds turn a blind eye, just walk over the border. What goes back over the border would be blacker than midnight in a celler on a moonless night with the curtains drawn and your eyes closed, and probably routed from Langley via Bonn.
It would be a mess of dystopic proportions. Eventually, the government would fall, either to a revolution or an internal coup and Hoenecker would either end up with a long drop on a short lead, or placed against the nearest wall.
No BRD Invasion, military, civillian, humanitarian or otherwise
ITL, I could see Photos and video footage of NVA Troops firing on protesters hitting the international news big time. At which point, Gorbachev would publically AND privately condemn the actions. I could see the BRD requesting a motion of condemnation in the UN, getting it and potentially the Soviet Union either abstaining, or actually voting in favour of it.
While the West German military would not take action, private individuals most likely would. Symbolic protests to start with - cutting the wire at border posts while Border gaurds look on from both sides. Mass walk overs, not in Berlin, but elsewhere, DDR citizens, while DDR border gaurds turn a blind eye, just walk over the border. What goes back over the border would be blacker than midnight in a celler on a moonless night with the curtains drawn and your eyes closed, and probably routed from Langley via Bonn.
It would be a mess of dystopic proportions. Eventually, the government would fall, either to a revolution or an internal coup and Hoenecker would either end up with a long drop on a short lead, or placed against the nearest wall.
No BRD Invasion, military, civillian, humanitarian or otherwise
And not to forget: The climate of society in that time. The fear of triggering WW III by such an attempted would stop every plan even if the west german parties would be thinking of violating the Grundgesetz.
I think some teenagers who are living out their war and invasion fantasies here in this thread don't have a glue about the Zeitgeist of that era.
I think 10 years ago there was a fictional Documentation on ZDF. The premise was that the SED was pulling a chinese solution. Accentially they shot some viewers from west berlin and the west who wanted to stay out became involved. Gorbajew who wanted to deescalate the whole situation was diposed in by a coup of military hardliners.
Even if Honecker had ordered a Chinese Solution it would niot have happened because the order to end the demonstration in Leipzig on October, 9th 1989 ha been given, it was simply ignored by the people in charge in Lepzig.
This shows us that the mindset of the German officals was different from their Chinese and Romanian counterparts.
The ZDF documentary about a different 1989 had a different scenario, it was not about the GDR pulling a Tinanamen but about the coup against Gorbachev happening in 1989.
This shows us that the mindset of the German officals was different from their Chinese and Romanian counterparts.
The ZDF documentary about a different 1989 had a different scenario, it was not about the GDR pulling a Tinanamen but about the coup against Gorbachev happening in 1989.
...with the new hardliner leadership of the USSR then backing a Tiananmen solution by the GDR.
I watched Der Dritte Weltkrieg often enough to remember the scenario.
Realpolitik
Banned
As I've said-relatively few East Germans were willing to FIGHT for East Germany anymore.
I concur. Nice to see the various voices that appeared in this thread.So, I by and large agree with the assessments and reasoning that have already been mentioned by others in this thread. In any case, this has been a very good POD discussion and I've thoroughly enjoyed reading both the "for" and "against" arguments.