WI: East Germany managed to exist until present day.

I often asked myself, what if, if East Germany managed to overcome the "crisis" in the end of the 80's and still existed as a state. The POD is, that the government ordered the NVA to shoot at the protestors in Leipzig, thus killing the peoples will to protest against the government. But in the same time, Gorbatshow decided to cut the support for the DDR, and ordered the soviet troops to leave East Germany immediatly. As a result, the DDR is isolated in the world, as it hasn't any allies anymore.

But with no allies and trade partners, how would East Germany have managed to exist until that day? I think that the DDR would have strengthened ties with China, Cuba and North Korea. Especially China would become a very important trade partner, because as we all know, China was on the way to be a economical heavyweight in the world. Maybe the DDR would have become some kind of european China, this means european companies (Volkswagen for example) decided to let their products be produced in the DDR. This might have caused controversy in West Germany (As jobs would have been transferred to the other Germany which is a totalitarian regime).

But maybe East Germany went another way, and ended up as an North Korea-like state. This means, a down-worked economy and a pseudo-religious person cult (Although I can't imagine that for people like Egon Krenz or Gregor Gysi). But with closer relations to North Korea, the DDR might become the target of the USA, maybe George W. Bush would have declared the DDR as a part of the "Axis of evil".

But a still existing DDR has also strong influence of West Germany. I think the political landscape would have been more right-wing with the NPD being in the Bundestag as I think that the NPD might take a role like OTL Left Party.

So what do you think? What would be different if East Germany still exists?
 
We have already had discussions of a GDR surviving Perestroika and Glasnost and someone indeed came up with a DPRK-esque scenario. But the major error of your thoughts is that the GDR wasn't Albania. The GDR didn't cut ties to the USSR for ties to the PRC as Albania did, latter ties being eventually cut as well seeing Deng's reform as another revisionist betrayal. Albania prohibited every kind of foreign travel (to brother nations as well) and even the possession of cars under Enver Hoxha. Albania is the only European country to have real parallels to North Korea when it comes to Stalinist doctrine.

The problem is that Honecker's desire to put down the Monday demonstrations the way as the Chinese at Tianan'men did remained unfulfilled as the local comrades refused to follow the orders. Honecker was even forced by his politburo to resign to save face as they knew that their regime was just as week as those in Poland, CSSR and hungary - no Red Army to crush, no survival. Honecker was screwed.

Even if they followed the orders it would just result in another Romania, but the end would still be much quicker. Too many people in the East had access to West German TV and radio, you couldn't have been able to mute further uprisings.
 
If Gorby (we spell his name Gorbachev in English) had pulled Russian forces out of the DDR earlier than OTL, then the Communist government would have fallen sooner, not later. Despite the fact that its economy was probably the best of all the Warsaw Pact countries, it was an artificial state that existed only by Russian fiat. Even if the Soviet Union survived to this day, I believe that reunification would eventually occur, and probably sooner rather than later. The only people in the late 80s who wanted the DDR to survive were the cadre who ruled it. Otherwise, there would be more eastern protest parties elected to the Reichstag today.
 
there is nice Sort story called

"Herrliche Zeiten" by karsten Kruschel

were the DDR (GDR) still there and has take west germany over !

POD 1978 the flight of Sigmund Jähn in the Intercosmos program never happen.
GDR use the money for Mining Project "Mansfelder" and strike on Gold !
(on cost the destruction of city Leibzig by Surface mining)

in 1982 the GDR bring out the Goldmark (currency)
1980s the GDR Ministry of Foreign Affairs buy Majority in west German industry, Banks...
in 1989 poor West Germany is taken over by rich GDR, The west german opposition goes in exil
and new "Anti Fascists Wall" is build atlong new west border of GDR...
 
there is nice Sort story called

"Herrliche Zeiten" by karsten Kruschel

were the DDR (GDR) still there and has take west germany over !

POD 1978 the flight of Sigmund Jähn in the Intercosmos program never happen.
GDR use the money for Mining Project "Mansfelder" and strike on Gold !
(on cost the destruction of city Leibzig by Surface mining)

in 1982 the GDR bring out the Goldmark (currency)
1980s the GDR Ministry of Foreign Affairs buy Majority in west German industry, Banks...
in 1989 poor West Germany is taken over by rich GDR, The west german opposition goes in exil
and new "Anti Fascists Wall" is build atlong new west border of GDR...

<flap, flap, flap> Is this an alien space bat before me, muzzle toward my hand? Come, let me clutch thee!

Sorry Shakespeare
 
well, I think a collapse would be inevitable. The illegitimate, artificial travesty of a state was not only morally bancrupt, but also in a quite real sense.

Their problem wasn´t a lack of "trading partners", but the fact they weren´t competitive at all after the removal of COMECON.

But if we just take your scenario, my 2 cents:

The political landscape will of course still be dominated by the question of how many Germanies exist, how to deal with the other ones. The reunification clause in the Basic Law is still valid while a "pragmatic" approach tries to stabilize the "GDR" with money to prevent further turmoil.
 
<flap, flap, flap> Is this an alien space bat before me, muzzle toward my hand? Come, let me clutch thee!

Sorry Shakespeare

i check some data about some DDR prestige projects.
in 1976 the Politburo of DDR (GDR) made new next year planning
they had two prestige projects
one send a east german to Space with the Sovjet Intercosmos program.

second was Mining Project "Mansfelder" for Lignite Surface mining
but major problem of Project "Mansfelder" was, that City of Leibzig was in way.
so they take first option to send Sigmund Jähn into Space.

karsten Kruschel used this facts and the rumours of of gold deposits under Leibzig for his POD :D
 
Standard of living of East Germany would be compared to South Korea or Portugal if East Germany still exists and East Germany had distanced itself from USSR like China do. East Germany if survives, East Germany would be communist in politics but capitalist in economics because theres no more USSR.
 
Standard of living of East Germany would be compared to South Korea or Portugal if East Germany still exists and East Germany had distanced itself from USSR like China do. East Germany if survives, East Germany would be communist in politics but capitalist in economics because theres no more USSR.

Ahem, East Germany was, by modern standards, a third world country. It was only the most advanced country of the Eastern bloc, but that doesn't mean it was very advanced... especially their economic figures were radically overblown... :rolleyes:
 

Valdemar II

Banned
Ahem, East Germany was, by modern standards, a third world country. It was only the most advanced country of the Eastern bloc, but that doesn't mean it was very advanced... especially their economic figures were radically overblown... :rolleyes:

Funny thing we speak about how advanced South Korea, Taiwan and Malaysia but they're all poorer than Slovenia a country economical comparativ to East Germany (and Malaysia is poorer than both Bulgaria and Rumania). East Germany was never third world, it was poor by westen standards, but it had a superior industry, education, lifestyle and monopol of violence to the vast majority of non-Westerner. The truth are if East Germany had survive as a independent country it would be one of the riches East European countries.
 

Susano

Banned
The political landscape will of course still be dominated by the question of how many Germanies exist, how to deal with the other ones. The reunification clause in the Basic Law is still valid while a "pragmatic" approach tries to stabilize the "GDR" with money to prevent further turmoil.

Well, it made sense and would make sense. Look at Korea, where even the South doesnt really want renifcation anymore because of the giant, giant wealth disparity. Western aid helped to prevent this in the case of the GDR, and allowed IOTL for a smooth reunifcation.

However, the GDR cant survive by force. Simply because it was from the beginning not North Korea. It was a dictatorship, an often times murderous one, but as far as dictatorships go, there also have been and are much worse ones - like North Korea. The matter is simply that even if the GDR government tried to stay in power at all costs, they simply would not have been able to control all state forces in a sufficient degree to do so.
 
Funny thing we speak about how advanced South Korea, Taiwan and Malaysia but they're all poorer than Slovenia a country economical comparativ to East Germany (and Malaysia is poorer than both Bulgaria and Rumania). East Germany was never third world, it was poor by westen standards, but it had a superior industry, education, lifestyle and monopol of violence to the vast majority of non-Westerner. The truth are if East Germany had survive as a independent country it would be one of the riches East European countries.

I agree that they had better education etc. but their industry was still quite inferior... like I said, third world. I'm also sceptical if they would be the richest country in Eastern Europe. The GDR would today likely be more like Belarus or Moldova, IMO.
 

Valdemar II

Banned
I agree that they had better education etc. but their industry was still quite inferior... like I said, third world. I'm also sceptical if they would be the richest country in Eastern Europe. The GDR would today likely be more like Belarus or Moldova, IMO.

You forget that a lot of inferior industries survived in other East European countries*, it was the reunionfication, which killed East German Industry. beside if you look at the former communist countries, you see that the riches countries are still the riches ones**. If DDR didn't have to adopt BRD laws, but still became democratic, you would see DDR evolve in the same way Czechia and Slovenia did.

*Skoda, Masda, Zastava etc.

**With the exception of Serbia and some of the former USSR republics like Armenia.
 
Top