WI early fall of Richmond victory in ACW

I have heard it claimed the Bull run/Manasas could have gone the other way.

I also suspect that with different luck and strategy Richmond might have fallen early in 1862.

1) Does this end the rebellion?

2) If the Confederacy is defeated before the Emancipation Proclamation how long does slavery survive

3) What happens to government in the rebel states
 
Davis was determined to fight on, so by 1862 something like the excellent timeline The Union Forever is likrly. Not sure about the first, but it makes me wonder, if the Union only gets part way, can they regroup and hold at, say, Spotsylvania or the North Anna instead of retreating all the way back to Washington?
 
I have heard it claimed the Bull run/Manasas could have gone the other way.

I also suspect that with different luck and strategy Richmond might have fallen early in 1862.

1) Does this end the rebellion?

2) If the Confederacy is defeated before the Emancipation Proclamation how long does slavery survive

3) What happens to government in the rebel states

1) The rebellion does not end yet. Most of Confederate territory has not felt the true effects of the war. Jefferson Davis certainly won't give up. In OTL, after Richmond fell, Davis said "Relieved from the necessity of guarding cities and particular points, important but not vital to our defense, with an army free to move from point to point and strike in detail the detachments and garrisons of the enemy, operating on the interior of our own country, where supplies are more accessible, and where the foe will be far removed from his own base and cut off from all succor in case of reverse, nothing is now needed to render our triumph certain but the exhibition of our own unquenchable resolve." Lee's surrender at Appomattox did not change Davis' mind - Joe Johnston's surrender to Sherman two weeks later was in defiance of direct orders from Davis. By May 2, Davis was talking about turning his military escort into “nucleus around which the whole people will rally when the present panic has passed away" and was told that “there was no war to continue” and the men planned to disperse once they had gotten Davis to safety. By that evening, only half of them were still willing to accompany Davis. By the 4th, Davis had decided his best chance of making it to Texas and continuing the war was to pay off most of the troops and continue with a small group that had a better chance of evading Union pursuit. Davis was captured, but he never gave up.

2) Lincoln would probably still issue an Emancipation Proclamation, but the war probably wouldn't last long enough to get an amendment ending slavery.

3) If Richmond falls, it will still take a while for the Union to gain control of all of Virginia and they will also need to garrison it. That would give the Davis administration time to re-establish itself in Georgia or Alabama.

One wildcard would be if North Carolina tries to make a separate peace with the Union after Virginia falls.
 
1) It doesn't end at a stroke, but everyone can see that after that point, the Confederacy's chances of winning through conventional arms are almost nil, which is going to have a noticeable effect on morale. If the occupation of all of Virginia results in the reduction of the main Confederate army through desertion and wastage, they'll have that much less to defend the Roanoke river in NC, against a greatly superior Union army that can draw its supplies from the rivers flowing into the Atlantic. Each Union advance would weaken the Confederate army, allowing it to advance further, snowballing into the deep south.

2) Honestly, who knows. It's a very economically useful system, so it would most likely be outside pressure; the North can only be galvanized against it if it poses a threat to the Union. Seeing the rebellion ignominiously crushed without any revolutionary measures will take the wind out of the abolitionists' sails for some time; you'd need to add a lot of free states to even attempt a constitutional amendment with the South still in the US.

3) State government become considerably more powerful. Richmond was the capital for a reason; not every city has the muscle to be a national capital, especially for the largest national government in American history up to that point. State governments would be able to take a deal like being immediately restored to their positions in the Union with all rights intact, regardless of the constitutional questions involved, like Lincoln offered, and without the strong central power of Richmond, and with their armies being driven back on all fronts, this could be a very attractive offer indeed.
 
Speculating wildly...

  • With the fall of Richmond, much of the CSA's heavy industry (such as it was) is gone, starting with the Tredegar Iron Works. Any damage to the railroad system will be that much more difficult to fix. It could lead to secondary lines getting cannibalized to keep main lines running, which will just weaken the overall network.
  • Given the near-run decisions to secede by North Carolina and Tennessee, I could see both of those states cutting their losses, bailing from the CSA, and making peace with the Union. Tennessee might even be re-admitted before the fighting was over. Might not be too much of a stretch, by the way, to see Arkansas following suit (for what little that might be worth: Arkansas was largely wilderness in the 1860s IIRC).
  • New Orleans was captured in 1862, don't forget: that takes out a major Confederate port and effectively denies the CSA much of Louisiana.
  • Any possible support in Europe for the CSA will likely dry up like a puddle in the July sun. More objective eyes in London and Paris will see the writing on the wall and might wish the CSA well but it won't go beyond verbal encouragement.
So...the CSA is down to six states in their entirety (SC, GA, FL, AL, MS, TX) and part of one more (LA) with the connection to the part west of the Mississippi becoming more and more tenuous as the Union closes off more and more of the river. The loss of VA, NC, TN and AR will weaken the central government badly. Then too the economy is likely to be collapsing with runaway inflation and little specie to back up the currency. All in all, I could see the war ending within about nine months of the fall of Richmond due to a collapsed economy, a shattered central government, and the Union cutting the nation in two by seizing the entire length of the Mississippi (the fall of Richmond could free more manpower to capture Vicksburg that much sooner). On the other hand with the surrender of Lee, there isn't a guerilla movement. Reconstruction is carried out in a manner that is less likely to exacerbate racial tensions. Some sort of compensated manumission is not out of the question, nor (IMO) would be some sort of move to encourage newly freed blacks to become pioneers in the territories and lightly populated states of the plains. To be sure, the adjustment of those born/raised in the Mississippi Delta region to life in the Dakota Territory would be daunting but not impossible.
 
If Richmond fell, then the CSA could write off getting recognition from Britain and France. Yes, there are those who would say that they did not need European support to win. However, there would be a faction who would want to throw the towel in.
 
Prior to its famous battle with the Monitor, the CSS Virginia nearly sank on March 8th after its ram became lodged into the USS Cumberland. Have the aforementioned Confederate vessel sink, and the Union fleets in the area could secure the James River for use as a supply line for McClellan's forces and thus allow for a quicker buildup as well as easing the logistics of any thrust against Richmond.
 
Prior to its famous battle with the Monitor, the CSS Virginia nearly sank on March 8th after its ram became lodged into the USS Cumberland. Have the aforementioned Confederate vessel sink, and the Union fleets in the area could secure the James River for use as a supply line for McClellan's forces and thus allow for a quicker buildup as well as easing the logistics of any thrust against Richmond.
Assuming that McClellan takes advantage of the opportunity. I am sure though that he could blow it.
 
I have heard it claimed the Bull run/Manasas could have gone the other way.

I also suspect that with different luck and strategy Richmond might have fallen early in 1862.

This seems to be two questions. Is the second supposed to be an implication fo the first?

My $0.02 is that if First Manassas had been a Union victory (which was entirely possible IMO), it has consequences all across the country, not just the Virginia theater. So the early fall of Richmond would not be the main effect.

In July 1861, the CSA was still very much of a (damn, can't think of the right word).... start-up, prototype, outline, trial?

Few Southerners had made strong physical or emotional commitments to the new government, which was still building out its organization.

There was a wave of enthusiasm, to be sure, but it was in large part driven by the braggadocio and gasconade of the Fire-Eaters, who talked wildly of how "gallant Southern gentlemen" could whip any number of "pasty-faced Yankees". OTL Manassas, as it happened, and especially as it was reported, seemed to confirm all this talk. It gave the CSA a huge psychological boost.

It also put a check on Union operations, and gave the CSA about six months to continue its organization. During that period, Southerners "worked in" to supporting and obeying the CSA. When the Union offensives of early 1862 took New Orleans, Nashville, and Memphis, and threatened Richmond, the CSA had the resilience to survive.

If Manassas has the opposite outcome, with "Southern gentlemen" fleeing in rout, or taken prisoner and paraded before jeering crowds in Washington... the entire secessionist enterprise could unravel right then. Almost certainly, Kentucky would declare for the Union. A lot more men would adhere to the "Union government of Virginia" being organized in Wheeling. The Five Civilized Tribes in the Indian Territory won't ally with the CSA.Tennessee and North Carolina will have second thoughts.

As to when, or whether, Union troops capture Richmond... Assume that despite the Manassas disaster, the CSA carries on.

McDowell's Army of Virginia wasn't capable of a long overland campaign; it was poorly organized, mostly due to its newness. The CS army is worse off, but it's on the defensive, which is easier. Still, it's possible that the Union gets to Richmond before the end of the year. For one thing, the CSA will lose resources, due to disaffection, and send assets to the West and elsewhere much sooner.

I have no idea what route McDowell and Scott had considered for a march on Richmond, if they had even thought that far ahead. The CS army would retreat SW, along the railroad, but Richmond lies due south, via Fredericksburg. It may end with an ineffectual siege of Richmond, starting as early as November 1861. Or if the CSA is bleeding resources elsewhere, and McDowell can get army's act together, Richmond could fall by December.

1) Does this end the rebellion?

See above. If Richmond falls, the unraveling will start. Not long after, the Union will take New Orleans.

2) If the Confederacy is defeated before the Emancipation Proclamation how long does slavery survive

About 10 years, maybe 20 at the outside. "Conservative" emancipation, with blacks remaining non-citizens, is the most likely path.

3) What happens to government in the rebel states

The secessionists leave office, and local unionists form new governments which are recognized by Lincoln.
 
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