WI: Early Death of Jack Layton

Hope no one will find this tasteless considering how close to it we are but:

What If Jack Layton's cancer had taken his life in 2010 before the Canadian federal elections ? in OTL his prostate cancer went into remission but what if it hadn't ? Would the NDP have been as popular and if not, would the Bloc Quebecois have managed to gain the opposition again considering the position of the Liberals ?
 
Wouldn't that mean Mulcair gets it? He's Quebecois, so...

Mulcair is a bit like Trotsky: a fiery speaker and ideologue, as well as being very intelligent, but a complete asshole who can't get along with anyone or stop running his mouth. he won't pick up the mantle mid-way through. In all likelihood, either the NDP collapses, or Olivia Chow takes the reigns and wins a similar victory on a sympathy vote. After that, she steps down and Mulcair takes charge, leads the NDP caucus for a while then self-immolates, leading to an NDP-Liberal coalition at the next election.
 
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