WI Early Austro-Prussian War instead of Punctation of Olmütz

So, the background, after 1848 the German Confederation was dissolved, after the failed Frankfurt Assembly Prussia has created in 1850 the Erfurt Union. Long story short the Austrians and Prussians almost entered war, but Prussia backed down reputedly because they feared the Russians that at the time were supporting the Austrians.

What if Prussia for some reason didn't back down, but instead declare war and attacks Austria even with the Russians supporting the Habsburgs?
 
So, the background, after 1848 the German Confederation was dissolved, after the failed Frankfurt Assembly Prussia has created in 1850 the Erfurt Union. Long story short the Austrians and Prussians almost entered war, but Prussia backed down reputedly because they feared the Russians that at the time were supporting the Austrians.

What if Prussia for some reason didn't back down, but instead declare war and attacks Austria even with the Russians supporting the Habsburgs?

Prussia gets its keister handed to it in a 1850 war,,especially if it's in the political climate of accepting the "Gutter Crown" from the Revolutionaries of the Springtime of Nations. Prussia won't be finding any allies among the other great powers, and while some German states might be brought along by internal political pressures they aren't going to be enough to tip the balance. Off the top of my head, this leads to a provisional treaty between Prussia and Austria that strips the former of influence in Northern Germany and maybe Silesia or their share of Poland, to be finalized in an international Conferance to facilitate a reorganization of the German Confederation to insure future stability in a Germany. Expect to see the lose of the Rhineland to a new/series of new states and new lands for Hannover.
 
Prussia gets its keister handed to it in a 1850 war,,especially if it's in the political climate of accepting the "Gutter Crown" from the Revolutionaries of the Springtime of Nations. Prussia won't be finding any allies among the other great powers, and while some German states might be brought along by internal political pressures they aren't going to be enough to tip the balance. Off the top of my head, this leads to a provisional treaty between Prussia and Austria that strips the former of influence in Northern Germany and maybe Silesia or their share of Poland, to be finalized in an international Conferance to facilitate a reorganization of the German Confederation to insure future stability in a Germany. Expect to see the lose of the Rhineland to a new/series of new states and new lands for Hannover.

Well, you said what I was expecting, Austria and Russia are too powerful with much bigger armies and populations. What territories (if any) would Prussia lose in the east other than Silesia? Maybe Posen to Russia, maybe the Province of Prussia? What effects it could take on Italy and the Balkans?
 
Well, you said what I was expecting, Austria and Russia are too powerful with much bigger armies and populations. What territories (if any) would Prussia lose in the east other than Silesia? Maybe Posen to Russia, maybe the Province of Prussia? What effects it could take on Italy and the Balkans?

There's also the factor that there haven't been the level of industrial/technical development for Prussia to go through the equipment reforms that proved so vital in giving her the rate of fire rifle advantage over Austria she'd enjoyed in the Austro-Prussian war, nor the relative stability to bring her full armed forces to bare.

As for what Prussia would lose, that would be mediated by the other Great Powers in the upcoming international conference which were the 19th century norm for hammering out a mutually acceptable balance of power. East Prussia is far too politically and historically integral (it's the Junker lands and original lands of the state) and Posen gives Russia too strong of a reach into German affairs for GB and France to likely tolerate. Losing the Rhineland and Silesia; two core economic and less integral regions, as well as legal and military restrictions within the Confederation to hamstring any of her future attempts to gain preeminence among the Germanies would be more than sufficient without unduly laying the groundwork for Russia tipping the concert of Europe too close to her tune
 
Might Saxony regain the land it lost to Prussia after the Napoleonic period?

Hm... quite possibly. Strengthening Saxony, Barvaria, and maybe even Denmark (Via Holstein) could be a major compontent of insuring a balance of power among the German states to prevent any one from emerging as hegemon.
 
Hm... quite possibly. Strengthening Saxony, Barvaria, and maybe even Denmark (Via Holstein) could be a major compontent of insuring a balance of power among the German states to prevent any one from emerging as hegemon.
Why though? Austria WAS interested in hegemony, just one with them as the hegemon.


I think in such a situation Austria would go through with their reforms strenghtening the economical ties between Austria and the German Confederation and also laying groundwork for a central government headed by them.
 
Why though? Austria WAS interested in hegemony, just one with them as the hegemon.


I think in such a situation Austria would go through with their reforms strenghtening the economical ties between Austria and the German Confederation and also laying groundwork for a central government headed by them.

... and nobody else wants a single hegemon uniting the Germanies. If Little Germany under Prussia is seen as an unacceptable concentration of power, why would they so willingly tolerate a Greater Germany+ under the Habsburgs?
 
... and nobody else wants a single hegemon uniting the Germanies. If Little Germany under Prussia is seen as an unacceptable concentration of power, why would they so willingly tolerate a Greater Germany+ under the Habsburgs?
It's not about toleration, if Prussia is out Austria has already its hegemony, what you would need to avoid that is someone actively going to create bigger German states out of Bavaria and the others which is kinda unlikely to happen anyway out of a total partition of Prussia, what I find likely is Saxony to get bigger, Austria getting some of Upper Silesia and Klodzko and some other land there and there but I can't see any German states annexing so much land to the point of making Austrian hegemony impossible, if any European power wanted to achieve that they would push for status quo with Prussian borders but I imagine that Prussia losing would inflict such a big wound in terms of their diplomatic and economical position that would make it impossible anyway, I imagine the Rhineland would be one of the territory that could possibly breakaway, for the religious differences which could be exploited by Austria but I'm not sure who would rule such a territory.

All in all I don't think anything drastic in terms of land cession(from a existent state to another) would happen, both because there is no point behind that from the perspective of any of the parties involved and also because it would be damaging to the balance of power, the main changes would be in terms of the power relations in the confederation, I think the Confederation would reform itself better after such an event and if Austria is economically connected to it the events in Italy could take a very different turn as would a war with France which would probably involve the German states.
 
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This is what I think a strong peace would look like, given that during the Herbstkrise some related familiies(Mecklenburg and Lippe) were on 2 opposing sides I imagined that if it came to war the territories would be unified after the peace and I also had some of the states allied with Prussia being punished(some heavily like Göttingen and other with border territories and loss of exclaves) all in all the major differences is with Saxony, I don't think you could push for even more, Prussia is already quite weakened and now their land connection is even worse than before.

cE7K5Oq.png
 
Let's just for fun take the other side--Prussia stuns and routs the Austrians in Bohemia and repels the Russians in East Prussia. Is it so impossible? Austria is a basket case and Russia is overrated (as everyone finds out just a few years later).

So as not to push their luck, the Prussians take a quick peace. The North German states join the Erfurt Union, now called the North German Confederation. The South is left in flux, but they remain associated economically to Prussia.

Austria is in disarray. There will probably not be renewed full on revolts in Hungary and Italy (too soon), but things are a mess. Schwarzenberg is out and there will have to be changes. Some kind of conservative federalism is the first thought that comes to mind.

Russia experiences a loss of confidence and looks inward.

The center of future conflict now shifts from the east (no Crimean War) to Germany and Italy. Prussia will push for a favorable settlement in Schleswig-Holstein. France will have its eye on Italy with a weakened and isolated Austria, but will also be leery of a strong Prussia across the border.

Do Austra and Prussia reconcile? Is the deal Austria accepts the new arrangement in Germany in exchange for support in Italy and the Balkans?
How do matters progress?
 
Let's just for fun take the other side--Prussia stuns and routs the Austrians in Bohemia and repels the Russians in East Prussia. Is it so impossible? Austria is a basket case and Russia is overrated (as everyone finds out just a few years later).

So as not to push their luck, the Prussians take a quick peace. The North German states join the Erfurt Union, now called the North German Confederation. The South is left in flux, but they remain associated economically to Prussia.

Austria is in disarray. There will probably not be renewed full on revolts in Hungary and Italy (too soon), but things are a mess. Schwarzenberg is out and there will have to be changes. Some kind of conservative federalism is the first thought that comes to mind.

Russia experiences a loss of confidence and looks inward.

The center of future conflict now shifts from the east (no Crimean War) to Germany and Italy. Prussia will push for a favorable settlement in Schleswig-Holstein. France will have its eye on Italy with a weakened and isolated Austria, but will also be leery of a strong Prussia across the border.

Do Austra and Prussia reconcile? Is the deal Austria accepts the new arrangement in Germany in exchange for support in Italy and the Balkans?
How do matters progress?

Your scenario is unlikely. The Prussian military was relatively weak in the 1840ies and 50ies compared to the 1860ies and 70ies. While Prussia had some advantages in 1866 against Austria, the Prussian victory wasn't inevitable but the result of good planning and a lot of good luck. If you fight against Austria and Russia at the same time, you need to further split and divide your armies. You want to defend Königsberg against the Russians. You need an army against medium sized German states like Bavaria and Saxony, to defend the RHineland and connect it with main Prussia. Your main forces should concentrate against Austria.

Such a war could also include new violence in Schleswig-Holstein. If Prussia defeats Denmark again, Great Britain will maybe intervene on the side of Denmark.

In this scenario you could gain support from German nationalists and various smaller German states could join your case (but Bavaria, Saxony and Kurhessen (Hesse-Kassel) are probably against you).
I guess that Hannover will be either neutral or supportive of Austria (depending also on the British position). Great Britain could either mediate or maintain neutrality or support Austria and Russia.
But the support for Prussia among some nationalists would be limited, since Prussian military recently restored the monarchy in the Grad Duchy of Baden trough a military intervention and a short war against the revolutionary government of Baden. We need to know how many Prussian troops are still in the Grand-Duchy of Baden in 1850 to explore this possible war.

In most cases Prussia will lose this war. If we want to look at possible peace treaties we need to think about a treaty which maintains the balance of power in Europe while weakening Prussia. The map posted by @Gloss is one of several possible results. Great Britain will probably influence the peace conference with the interest of maintaining the balance of power.
I doubt that Austria could annex more than half of Silesia. Creative solutions for the Rhineland would be possible, but a Prussian presence in the Rhineland is useful to keep french influence outside of the German Confederacy. Most territorial changes would probably strengthen medium sized countries.
- give Saxony some or all territory lost in 1815 back.
- Bavaria could gain some territory around the lower Rhineland and near the Bavarian palatinate
- Denmark will have a much more powerful position in Schleswig-Holstein
- Minor territorial exchanges between various smaller states.
- Mecklenburg-Schwerin could maybe gain Vorpommern (if they are on the right side)
- Oldenburg could loose some territories to Hannover (if they are on the wrong side)
- Hesse-Kassel could gain or loose territories, but strengthening a reactionary Hesse-Kassel would be in the interest of Austria and Russia.
- Maybe giving Württemberg or Baden control over Hohenzollern (if they are on the right side)
- Russia could maybe gain some areas in the province of Posen (but not to much since we need to maintain the balance of power)
- Austria could gain the southern half of Silesia (but not to much since we need to maintain the balance of power)

The war could strengthen the relationship between Austria and Russia, therefore leading to some changes in the further history of the 19. century.
German Unification is now either postponed or lead by Austria into an reformed closer German Confederacy or will occur if Austria collapses in the 19. or 20. century.
 
- Bavaria could gain some territory around the lower Rhineland and near the Bavarian palatinate
- Denmark will have a much more powerful position in Schleswig-Holstein
- Mecklenburg-Schwerin could maybe gain Vorpommern (if they are on the right side)
- Maybe giving Württemberg or Baden control over Hohenzollern (if they are on the right side)
- Russia could maybe gain some areas in the province of Posen (but not to much since we need to maintain the balance of power)
- Austria could gain the southern half of Silesia (but not to much since we need to maintain the balance of power)

The war could strengthen the relationship between Austria and Russia, therefore leading to some changes in the further history of the 19. century.
German Unification is now either postponed or lead by Austria into an reformed closer German Confederacy or will occur if Austria collapses in the 19. or 20. century.
-I don't think Bavaria would gain that much, what I gave them from my map(minor exclaves) would be enough, I don't think they would be doing much in this war anyway and the Austrians wouldn't want them to be too strong.
-Why though? An Austria victory would strenghten the Confederation, creating stronger ties in the region making the Danish position over this region overall weaker.
-I think Mecklenburg would be united under the branch that sided with the Austrians, as during the crisis it was divided.
-Baden was pro-Prussia, so probably Württemberg.
-Possibly, but I don't see the Russians wanting it all that much, maybe they'd be more interested in Memel even.
-Yeah I think the borders I gave them in the map above, would follow very well religious divided and give Austria control over the lowland area around the Carpathain and Sudetes, quite a gain overall.
A small detail to remember, the principality of Geroldseck (also called Fürstentum von der Leyen; inside the Grand Duchy of Baden, with only 4500 inhabitants in 1800) became part of Baden in 1818, so it doesn't exist in the 1860ies.
It was just the best map i found, for example it also has pre 1839 Luxembourg.
 
This is what I think a strong peace would look like, given that during the Herbstkrise some related familiies(Mecklenburg and Lippe) were on 2 opposing sides I imagined that if it came to war the territories would be unified after the peace and I also had some of the states allied with Prussia being punished(some heavily like Göttingen and other with border territories and loss of exclaves) all in all the major differences is with Saxony, I don't think you could push for even more, Prussia is already quite weakened and now their land connection is even worse than before.

cE7K5Oq.png

Territorially this makes major sense, and I more than concede to your reasoning on that regard. I'd argue though against the reforms hammered out in the Confederation would be allowed to lean too much towards centralization under Austria, though: especially since the united Germany concept would be heavily tainted by the excesses of the Liberal Revolutions. The medium sized German states are naturally going to want to retain their independence/privileges, and so would either make a joint front within the Confederation or seek forgien support if Austria takes too heavy a hand and ties itself to a longer term alliance with Russia. France and GB also have reasons to be wary, and I can easily see them willing to support said German states both to expand their own interests and prevent the Austro-Russian alliance from utterly destroying the balance of power. Now, this all presumes continued close relations between Vienna and St.Petersburg: the further from alliance and closer to rivalry the Empires come into post-war the less the expansion of the former's power would produce a reaction from the West.
 
Territorially this makes major sense, and I more than concede to your reasoning on that regard. I'd argue though against the reforms hammered out in the Confederation would be allowed to lean too much towards centralization under Austria, though: especially since the united Germany concept would be heavily tainted by the excesses of the Liberal Revolutions. The medium sized German states are naturally going to want to retain their independence/privileges, and so would either make a joint front within the Confederation or seek forgien support if Austria takes too heavy a hand and ties itself to a longer term alliance with Russia. France and GB also have reasons to be wary, and I can easily see them willing to support said German states both to expand their own interests and prevent the Austro-Russian alliance from utterly destroying the balance of power. Now, this all presumes continued close relations between Vienna and St.Petersburg: the further from alliance and closer to rivalry the Empires come into post-war the less the expansion of the former's power would produce a reaction from the West.
I think this idea of centralization being tainted by liberalism is not actually true, heck the whole point of this crisis was an attempt of Prussia to create a mroe centralized state just after the revolution and Austria had its counterproposal:
https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Großösterreich

I agree that full centralization wouldn't be possible just after the war, but if Austria integrates all of the states in an economic union and then further implements step by step centralization systems(like the dissolution of the idea of inviolability of the single states, which was de facto ignored by Prussia as a measure against local liberalism) the empire could easily have centralized similarly to OTL by the time we saw the German Empire under Prussia, people forget that the biggest obstacle of centralization wasn't simply the smaller states, it was the Austrian-Prussian dualism, heck the whole policy of Bismark in the early 60s was one of disruption of any Austrian reform plan.
 
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