WI :Earlier Pacific War?

On December 12th, 1937, the USS Panay was sunk by Japanese Air Force fighters. What if instead of 3 casulties, every person on board was killed in the attack? Could this cause enough outrage to force the United States to war? If so, what effect would it have on the World at large?
 
Having everyone on board get killed is probably ASB, unless something like a catastrophic explosion occurred. It is certainly possible for the USS Panay to suffer more casualties. A higher body count combined with a Japanese refusal to apologize could result in a war, especially if the American public was sufficiently outraged.
 
So with increased casualties and American public outrage what happens next, is the American Asiatic Fleet doomed?

Japan cannot defeat the United States in a war. In OTL the US overwhelmed Japan with our industrial capacity. They did this while devoting only a small percentage of the war effort to the Pacific, the majority went to Europe. In this scenario you have the US focused only on Japan. They will be lucky to last three years.
 
I think Japan might try to seek negotiations and stop war. After the OTL bombing, Tokyo paid Washington indemnities and immediately apologized. The Japanese would probably want to wait for a chance to make a surprise attack. Besides, as this is before the US stops rubber, iron, and oil exports to Japan, the Japanese have no reason to make war on the United States.
 
Japan cannot defeat the United States in a war. In OTL the US overwhelmed Japan with our industrial capacity. They did this while devoting only a small percentage of the war effort to the Pacific, the majority went to Europe. In this scenario you have the US focused only on Japan. They will be lucky to last three years.
Oh I know in the long term that the US will win out, I was wondering what would happen to Europe if the US defeated Japan by 1940. Not to mention its affect on the outcome of the Chinese Civil War.
 
Oh I know in the long term that the US will win out, I was wondering what would happen to Europe if the US defeated Japan by 1940. Not to mention its affect on the outcome of the Chinese Civil War.
I do not see much changing in Europe. The Axis was not much of an alliance; they did not coordinate their efforts like the Allies did.

The Chinese Civil War is something entirely different. Without the Japanese to fight, you may see a decision reached sooner, but the winner is more difficult to determine. Both sides are going to be receiving far less outside assistance, determining a winner is going to take some research and probably some guesswork as well.
 
The Chinese Civil War is something entirely different. Without the Japanese to fight, you may see a decision reached sooner, but the winner is more difficult to determine. Both sides are going to be receiving far less outside assistance, determining a winner is going to take some research and probably some guesswork as well.

Who says there has to be a definite Winner? Couldn't it be fought to draw and have a North/South divide like so many other Asian counties?
 
So one result is that the US begins mobilizing forces, particularly at sea, earlier than OTL. This is an extremely bad thing for Japan.
 
Without having to worry about Germany (yet) Stalin might take the opportunity to invade Manchuria... it's not likely, but it's certainly possible in my opinion.
 
I am not sure what impact it would have if the Panay were hit harder, remember that the base at Pearl Harbor was American soil while our presence in China was percievable as "another foreign adventure". Isolationist sentiment will be high, and it will take the US some time to recover from the devasation. The 1937 floods in the Midwest are still fresh while the country is only just recovering from the Depression, a war could cause signficant changes in the vote for 1938. Japan will probably not risk Nomoghan and may try to improve their tanks. What could really be interesting is a short-course war with a negotiated settlement and the Japanese getting hold of some American small arms/aircraft and miscellaneous technologies, a Japanese back-engineered or "inspired" equivalent of the M1 or P38 or even F4F could give them advantages in China. Not sure if any American tanks or artillery from pre-Sherman days would stand out enough for them to want to copy or not. With China in hand they have no reason to take on the US but could quietly build and pacify Eastern Asia for a few years.
 
I am not sure what impact it would have if the Panay were hit harder, remember that the base at Pearl Harbor was American soil while our presence in China was percievable as "another foreign adventure". Isolationist sentiment will be high, and it will take the US some time to recover from the devasation. The 1937 floods in the Midwest are still fresh while the country is only just recovering from the Depression, a war could cause signficant changes in the vote for 1938. Japan will probably not risk Nomoghan and may try to improve their tanks. What could really be interesting is a short-course war with a negotiated settlement and the Japanese getting hold of some American small arms/aircraft and miscellaneous technologies, a Japanese back-engineered or "inspired" equivalent of the M1 or P38 or even F4F could give them advantages in China. Not sure if any American tanks or artillery from pre-Sherman days would stand out enough for them to want to copy or not. With China in hand they have no reason to take on the US but could quietly build and pacify Eastern Asia for a few years.

^This... neither nation really has much reason to go to war at this point.

Of course, such an "incident" would accelerate the halt of shipments of raw materials to Japan, and then the Japanese would have plenty of reason to go to war.
 
Film

I read (not sure of the source, so I can't speak to its accuracy) that there was film that wasn't released at the time. If newsreels through the country showed American sailors gunned down by Japanese fighters- includnig an especially gory one of someone taking a direct hit from a large calliber round, bloody, mangled corpses, the gunboat going down, colors flying as the last gun spits defiance at the Japanese...perhaps with an ememy plane going down, there would be a more energetic reaction throughout the USA. Then, the politics, media, and general mood of the popluation (that influenced by the politics and media) could spiral out of control.

If the USA is already mobilized for war in 1939, I suspect that World War II starts on schedule, but that the Germans are a bit more careful in dealing with the USA. By 1940, it's clear that the USA can build like crazy, and Germany would not want to see American shipbuilding pointed at them once Japan is contained. Even more, if peace breaks out in the Pacific around 1940, the USA has lots of suddenly surplus light ships for Britian...
 
Also wondering if this war results in German support of the Nationalist Chinese as per OTL. Without the signing of an alliance with the Japanese, the Germans could maintain an alliance with Chiang Kai-shek and have continued Sino-German support.
 
There was a good TL with this premise around here.

I read (not sure of the source, so I can't speak to its accuracy) that there was film that wasn't released at the time. If newsreels through the country showed American sailors gunned down by Japanese fighters- includnig an especially gory one of someone taking a direct hit from a large calliber round, bloody, mangled corpses, the gunboat going down, colors flying as the last gun spits defiance at the Japanese...perhaps with an ememy plane going down, there would be a more energetic reaction throughout the USA. Then, the politics, media, and general mood of the popluation (that influenced by the politics and media) could spiral out of control.

If the USA is already mobilized for war in 1939, I suspect that World War II starts on schedule, but that the Germans are a bit more careful in dealing with the USA. By 1940, it's clear that the USA can build like crazy, and Germany would not want to see American shipbuilding pointed at them once Japan is contained. Even more, if peace breaks out in the Pacific around 1940, the USA has lots of suddenly surplus light ships for Britian...
 
Also if Peace occurs in 1940, it wont be the result of the Atomic Bomb, and it will most likely result in the Japanese Home Islands remaining untouched. Korea and Taiwan will most likely remain in Japan.
 
In 1937, the US is far too isolationist to declare war because of what happened to the Panay. Likely the Japanese would simply increase their indemnity. Japan did not want to antagonize the US either.

If the Japanese were particular offending to the US in response to the attack, I would see the US taking many other steps in response, but not war. The US could withdraw their ambassador in protest, cut off selling of war supplies and other trade to Japan, and increase trade or aid to Nationalist China.

Seeing the Japanese provoke the US would also alert the European powers that something very strange was going on in the Japanese government.
 
Top