WI - Earlier Italian East Africa?

I was thinking - what if Italian East Africa had been formed earlier? I was thinking about writing a TL about this in the future and wanted to see how plausible it could be.

In the mid-1890s, Italian East Africa is established as Italian Ethiopia (under Emperor Menelik II) becomes the nucleus of this new crown colony that the Italians begin investing in. Infrastructure is constructed as it connects Italian Eritrea to the Ethiopian interior with railways and roads as Italian settlers slowly trickle in, preferring the coastal areas of Italian Eritrea and Somaliland. However, Ethiopia's Italian population grows to thousands as the Italians enact an 'Italianization' policy that sees implementation among the Orthodox Christian highlanders (i.e. Tigrean and Amharic peoples) that expand into the Horn of Africa. The Italians manage to snag a piece of the predominantly Somali and Muslim Ogaden province which becomes apart of their Italian Somaliland colony. More development is seen throughout Italian East Africa as Ethiopians are sent abroad to Rome - and other western European countries - to gain an education, becoming apart of the native intelligentsia in Italian East Africa as they soon became ministers, governors and administrators throughout Italian East Africa.

The Kingdom of Italy decided to join World War 1 as an Entente member, ultimately prevailing against the Austro-Hungarian Empire despite losing 2.1 million men. The rise of fascism in Italy saw Benito Mussolini take power as the new Prime Minister of Italy, establishing a dictatorship. Italian East Africa saw much more development in infrastructure of the Ethiopian interior as Italian settlement reached the hundreds of thousands in Ethiopia. Cities like Addis Ababa, Gondar, Jimma and Harar have become strikingly similar to Italian cities such as Rome after decades of investment and colonization in what is often considered to be the Italian crown colony, akin to British India. Agricultural and industrial centers being established through the Italian Empire's East African colony as it soon became one of the most developed colonies of Africa.

What if the Italians were more subtle in declaring a protectorate over Ethiopia and opted to play different factions against Emperor Menelik II which would make him more reliant on the Italians? What if Ethiopia had become an Italian protectorate in the mid-1890s? What could happen from there?
 
The problem with Italy's colonial ambitions (aside from the fact that colonial ambitions are a problem of their own, period) is that - in typical Italian fashion - the whole thing was orchestrated by a cadre of incompetent dunces sending badly armed and barely literate recruits to their deaths with no regard for common sense and logic; Italy is never going to gain and maintain an empire through military conquest but, on the other hand, Italy might be able to make inroads in East Africa through mixed marriages and trade - both happened in OTL even under the Fascist regime, and making this indirect approach an official policy might actually work. Not in Ethiopia proper, but winning over those regions that feel themselves threatened by the expansionist ambitions of Ethiopia could be easier.
 
The problem with Italy's colonial ambitions (aside from the fact that colonial ambitions are a problem of their own, period) is that - in typical Italian fashion - the whole thing was orchestrated by a cadre of incompetent dunces sending badly armed and barely literate recruits to their deaths with no regard for common sense and logic; Italy is never going to gain and maintain an empire through military conquest but, on the other hand, Italy might be able to make inroads in East Africa through mixed marriages and trade - both happened in OTL even under the Fascist regime, and making this indirect approach an official policy might actually work. Not in Ethiopia proper, but winning over those regions that feel themselves threatened by the expansionist ambitions of Ethiopia could be easier.
I don't think Italy was capable of militarily conquering Ethiopia at the time and what I was suggesting is that the Italians are more subtle in their diplomacy, in making it so that the Ethiopian Emperor becomes increasingly reliant on Rome for more arms and advisors and whatnot. At first, Ethiopia becomes more of a de-facto/indirect Italian protectorate in which the Italians later attempt at making Ethiopia a formal protectorate or colony following World War 1. Essentially what you recommended is what I was thinking about for the earlier formation of Italian East Africa. If the Italians can increase their influence over the northern Christian highlanders, then the Ethiopians might be doing the expanding for them - albeit with a few Italian "advisors".
 

BlondieBC

Banned
What if the Italians were more subtle in declaring a protectorate over Ethiopia and opted to play different factions against Emperor Menelik II which would make him more reliant on the Italians? What if Ethiopia had become an Italian protectorate in the mid-1890s? What could happen from there?

Sounds good. You should write the ATL. Some thoughts as someone who like colonial ATL.

1) The key to getting Europeans to settle is free transport to the area plus either land or a good job. I have post on the matter.
2) The infrastructure you want is ridiculously cheap, especially if native labor is used. Build a good port, but an regiment or two of troops/sailor there. Build the RR. Station a few cruiser and supporting smaller ships.
3) Other countries basically ignored colonial troops. So the writing of the ATL is easier if you make these additional troops. Try to keep under 20K to 40K for realism, unless you want to go to the work to explain what is happening.
4) Colonialism is brutal, dirty work. Be ready to write some of this in your work for realism.
5) Colonies basically lose money. Don't let this bother you.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
The problem with Italy's colonial ambitions (aside from the fact that colonial ambitions are a problem of their own, period) is that - in typical Italian fashion - the whole thing was orchestrated by a cadre of incompetent dunces sending badly armed and barely literate recruits to their deaths with no regard for common sense and logic; Italy is never going to gain and maintain an empire through military conquest but, on the other hand, Italy might be able to make inroads in East Africa through mixed marriages and trade - both happened in OTL even under the Fascist regime, and making this indirect approach an official policy might actually work. Not in Ethiopia proper, but winning over those regions that feel themselves threatened by the expansionist ambitions of Ethiopia could be easier.

While I will not dispute the competency of Italian administrators, I would like to point out that they are roughly as good as the administrators of the other colonial powers. Colonies did not attract large numbers of the best and brightest. They tend to be a ad hoc collection of misfits who would struggle in their home country.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
I don't think Italy was capable of militarily conquering Ethiopia at the time and what I was suggesting is that the Italians are more subtle in their diplomacy, in making it so that the Ethiopian Emperor becomes increasingly reliant on Rome for more arms and advisors and whatnot. At first, Ethiopia becomes more of a de-facto/indirect Italian protectorate in which the Italians later attempt at making Ethiopia a formal protectorate or colony following World War 1. Essentially what you recommended is what I was thinking about for the earlier formation of Italian East Africa. If the Italians can increase their influence over the northern Christian highlanders, then the Ethiopians might be doing the expanding for them - albeit with a few Italian "advisors".

Ok, easy enough. The Italians provide what we would call development aid combined with an informal alliance. We are talking about some pretty basic facilities when the ports open. Plus a RR a few hundred kilometers to some river, mine or town. All combined with some gifts or benefits to the natives. You don't have to have this, but you seem to want this in your ATL.

So let me give you some research on the "prestige" port of Dar Es Salaam. Ten years after established, you could get on the roof and with a good rifle shoot lions. The city was 10's of blocks. You had a small opening via a reef that light cruiser could barely fit in.

Many African colonies had less than 3000 whites in them, and this is like 1910. I have read estimates that the Central African Republic never had more than 300 whites in country in any month before 1919. The whites were just so slim.

So once you have this port, you just have it expand. Crisis XX has Italy send a regiment of marines. Few years later, a battalion of combat engineers arrive. Few years later, they strip some guns off a 30 year old warship for a coastal battery. Some years, someone builds a RR to a mine. Or to some coffee producing area. etc. etc. You get the colony you want.
 
Ok, easy enough. The Italians provide what we would call development aid combined with an informal alliance. We are talking about some pretty basic facilities when the ports open. Plus a RR a few hundred kilometers to some river, mine or town. All combined with some gifts or benefits to the natives. You don't have to have this, but you seem to want this in your ATL.

So let me give you some research on the "prestige" port of Dar Es Salaam. Ten years after established, you could get on the roof and with a good rifle shoot lions. The city was 10's of blocks. You had a small opening via a reef that light cruiser could barely fit in.

Many African colonies had less than 3000 whites in them, and this is like 1910. I have read estimates that the Central African Republic never had more than 300 whites in country in any month before 1919. The whites were just so slim.

So once you have this port, you just have it expand. Crisis XX has Italy send a regiment of marines. Few years later, a battalion of combat engineers arrive. Few years later, they strip some guns off a 30 year old warship for a coastal battery. Some years, someone builds a RR to a mine. Or to some coffee producing area. etc. etc. You get the colony you want.
I'd assume benefits to the native Ethiopians would make Italian administration easier instead acting like the Belgians in which an Ethiopian resistance movement is going to inevitably rise and hamper Italian efforts at colonization. I apologize if I seem biased towards the Ethiopians.

Italian Eritrea and Ethiopia might have more settlers in the years prior to World War 1 so as to increase influence over Ethiopia but its more plausible to have more Italian settlers being brought in after World War 1 ends and Mussolini rises to power in the 20s. I'm unaware of how many Italians there were in Eritrea and Somaliland at the time.

Perhaps an uprising at one of the ports (i.e. Massawa, Assab or Mogadishu) forces the Italians to reinforce their current forces with marines and the scenario you propose plays out. The Italians could do the same thing for an agricultural center somewhere in the interior and/or southern provinces of Ethiopia.
 
Sounds good. You should write the ATL. Some thoughts as someone who like colonial ATL.

1) The key to getting Europeans to settle is free transport to the area plus either land or a good job. I have post on the matter.
2) The infrastructure you want is ridiculously cheap, especially if native labor is used. Build a good port, but an regiment or two of troops/sailor there. Build the RR. Station a few cruiser and supporting smaller ships.
3) Other countries basically ignored colonial troops. So the writing of the ATL is easier if you make these additional troops. Try to keep under 20K to 40K for realism, unless you want to go to the work to explain what is happening.
4) Colonialism is brutal, dirty work. Be ready to write some of this in your work for realism.
5) Colonies basically lose money. Don't let this bother you.
Is there anything else you recommend?
 

BlondieBC

Banned
I'd assume benefits to the native Ethiopians would make Italian administration easier instead acting like the Belgians in which an Ethiopian resistance movement is going to inevitably rise and hamper Italian efforts at colonization. I apologize if I seem biased towards the Ethiopians.

Italian Eritrea and Ethiopia might have more settlers in the years prior to World War 1 so as to increase influence over Ethiopia but its more plausible to have more Italian settlers being brought in after World War 1 ends and Mussolini rises to power in the 20s. I'm unaware of how many Italians there were in Eritrea and Somaliland at the time.

Perhaps an uprising at one of the ports (i.e. Massawa, Assab or Mogadishu) forces the Italians to reinforce their current forces with marines and the scenario you propose plays out. The Italians could do the same thing for an agricultural center somewhere in the interior and/or southern provinces of Ethiopia.

As to the revolt. You are writing a story. Pick an event that flows with the story. I suck at dialog and character development, so but I am pretty sure you want to make this even fit within your characters. There are a hundred things that could have the Italians transfer a few hundred troops to a colonial port. Anything from a revolt to some religious motivation so some recently promote general sending his archrival Lt. Colonel to a terrible duty station.

How many settlers do you want in Ethiopia? How many additional? If you give more details, it is easier to talk.

As to the attitude of the Italians. Colonial postings are not prestige jobs. Either pick a historical character that will act like you want, or write your own character.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Is there anything else you recommend?

Having nobility do a visit or two helps. Some mining boom or some other bubble helps. I have a couple of ATL that hit on German colonies. The second was not finished. I have put most of my thoughts and arguments in these threads.

IMO, it is fairly easy to get around 50K to 100K whites in a European colony along with a few regiments of troops (white) or more if you like to use natives. An infantry brigade in any colony might be half of all white troops in Africa outside of South Africa. It is super, super heavy.

Then you take the ATL to where you want to. You can write about the colony. Or try to change WW1. Or change WW2, or whatever you like. Just try to have a good story with good writing.
 
As to the revolt. You are writing a story. Pick an event that flows with the story. I suck at dialog and character development, so but I am pretty sure you want to make this even fit within your characters. There are a hundred things that could have the Italians transfer a few hundred troops to a colonial port. Anything from a revolt to some religious motivation so some recently promote general sending his archrival Lt. Colonel to a terrible duty station.

How many settlers do you want in Ethiopia? How many additional? If you give more details, it is easier to talk.

As to the attitude of the Italians. Colonial postings are not prestige jobs. Either pick a historical character that will act like you want, or write your own character.
I was thinking of an Eritrean resistance movement that could be religious-based (either Coptic Christian or Muslim) where some Italians end up dying in an Eritrean guerrilla attack that makes it so that Rome is forced to move in more of its troops into Italian Eritrea.

I'm not sure how many settlers are going to want to go to Ethiopia - IOTL, there were around 4,000 Italian settlers in Eritrea before World War 1 so you might see a similar number in northern and northwestern Ethiopia.

How plausible would it be for Mussolini to instead have been a colonial administrator?
 
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Having nobility do a visit or two helps. Some mining boom or some other bubble helps. I have a couple of ATL that hit on German colonies. The second was not finished. I have put most of my thoughts and arguments in these threads.

IMO, it is fairly easy to get around 50K to 100K whites in a European colony along with a few regiments of troops (white) or more if you like to use natives. An infantry brigade in any colony might be half of all white troops in Africa outside of South Africa. It is super, super heavy.

Then you take the ATL to where you want to. You can write about the colony. Or try to change WW1. Or change WW2, or whatever you like. Just try to have a good story with good writing.
Perhaps some Ethiopian nobles and/or the Emperor visit Rome to meet with the Italian King and Prime Minister - if you see increased Italian investments in Ethiopia, then Italian-educated Ethiopians could find coal that's in northern Ethiopia or maybe oil in the southern provinces.

I can see roughly 50,000-100,000 Italians settling in Ethiopia with infantry brigades that primarily consist of Christians and Muslims recruited from the native population, commanded by Italian officers.

When writing this Italian Ethiopia TL, I want to focus on Italian Ethiopia and Italian East Africa's developments but it will be focusing on the outside world as well. I was thinking that Italy joins World War 1 as OTL but it could remain neutral in World War 2 and focus on developing Italian East Africa.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
I was thinking of an Eritrean resistance movement that could be religious-based (either Coptic Christian or Muslim) where some Italians end up dying in an Eritrean guerrilla attack that makes it so that Rome is forced to move in more of its troops into Italian Eritrea.

I'm not sure how many settlers are going to want to go to Ethiopia - IOTL, there were around 4,000 Italian settlers in Eritrea so you might see a similar number in northern and northwestern Ethiopia.

How plausible would it be for Mussolini to instead have been a colonial administrator?

https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...the-u-boat-redux.398657/page-19#post-13383145 I think I went on in great detail around this thread.

When starting the research, I think the reasonable range of immigration per year is 10,000 to 70,000. I can make good arguments for all numbers in the range. So I really went mid point as a safer option. So I will try to go thru part of the logic.

100 year immigration:

  • USA 32.6 million
  • Argentina 6.5 million
  • Canada 5.1 million
  • Brazil, 4.4 million
  • Cuba 1.4 Million
  • South Africa 0.82 Million
  • Uraguay 0.73 million
  • ATL Kamerun 0.36 Million
  • Mexico 0.27 Million
So on this test, it looks ok to me. Cuba has malaria but no Tsetse fly. Cuba lacks big infrastructure. It is tropical and hilly.

Per year immigration 1890-1914

  • USA - Off the charts
  • Argentina 80K
  • Brazil -70K
  • New Zealand - Subsidies Year 50K +
When I see the big yearly spikes, the all have either free land or good economy. Then Argentina and Brazil had subsidies. And when Italy bans subsidies of fares to Brazil due to some scandals, the Italian immigration drops 35K per year. Then I went to New Zealand. They spent 10 million pounds (200 million on railroads. You get a nice base line immigration. Then I found this chart. See how the yellow spike of 35K immigrants over free ocean fare and 40 acres. It is as powerful as an gold discovery spike. So it is really the same as the California gold rush. IMO, 40k a year immigrants is a bit on the low side, but I gave Hans budget limits to make 70K not happen.

So what are your thoughts?



new-zealand-immigration-gif.291622
 
https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...the-u-boat-redux.398657/page-19#post-13383145 I think I went on in great detail around this thread.

When starting the research, I think the reasonable range of immigration per year is 10,000 to 70,000. I can make good arguments for all numbers in the range. So I really went mid point as a safer option. So I will try to go thru part of the logic.

100 year immigration:

  • USA 32.6 million
  • Argentina 6.5 million
  • Canada 5.1 million
  • Brazil, 4.4 million
  • Cuba 1.4 Million
  • South Africa 0.82 Million
  • Uraguay 0.73 million
  • ATL Kamerun 0.36 Million
  • Mexico 0.27 Million
So on this test, it looks ok to me. Cuba has malaria but no Tsetse fly. Cuba lacks big infrastructure. It is tropical and hilly.

Per year immigration 1890-1914

  • USA - Off the charts
  • Argentina 80K
  • Brazil -70K
  • New Zealand - Subsidies Year 50K +
When I see the big yearly spikes, the all have either free land or good economy. Then Argentina and Brazil had subsidies. And when Italy bans subsidies of fares to Brazil due to some scandals, the Italian immigration drops 35K per year. Then I went to New Zealand. They spent 10 million pounds (200 million on railroads. You get a nice base line immigration. Then I found this chart. See how the yellow spike of 35K immigrants over free ocean fare and 40 acres. It is as powerful as an gold discovery spike. So it is really the same as the California gold rush. IMO, 40k a year immigrants is a bit on the low side, but I gave Hans budget limits to make 70K not happen.

So what are your thoughts?



new-zealand-immigration-gif.291622
I think its quite interesting, although I'm not the best with numbers and estimates and whatnot. What do you think would be a good incentive for Italians to immigrate to and settle in Italian East Africa instead to the Americas, South Africa, etc?
 

BlondieBC

Banned
I think its quite interesting, although I'm not the best with numbers and estimates and whatnot. What do you think would be a good incentive for Italians to immigrate to and settle in Italian East Africa instead to the Americas, South Africa, etc?

Free steerage passage plus either 40 acres of land or a job.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Interesting. I was wondering, how would the Italians deal with an Ethiopian resistance movement to the Italian colonization programs in the 1890s to early 1900s?

Harshly and with a callous disregard for African lives, if the other colonial power track record is any guide.
 
Harshly and with a callous disregard for African lives, if the other colonial power track record is any guide.
Would the Italians ever be able to destroy the resistance movement? IOTL, they were unable to with the Ethiopian Patriots who ended up controlling the entire countryside during the Italian occupation of 1936-41.
 
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BlondieBC

Banned
Would the Italians ever be able to destroy the resistance movement? IOTL, they were unable to with the Ethiopian Patriots who ended up controlling the entire countryside during the Italian occupation of 1936-41?

Well, that is your call as an ATL writer. Do the Italians have a good plan lead by a good leader with good troops. Or is it unmotivated troops lacking a plan lead by an Italian officers not fit to serve in Italy proper?
 
Well, that is your call as an ATL writer. Do the Italians have a good plan lead by a good leader with good troops. Or is it unmotivated troops lacking a plan lead by an Italian officers not fit to serve in Italy proper?
It could be a bit of both, when regarding the state of Italian forces in Italian East Africa but the pre-Fascist Italians might not be as incompetent as their counterparts in the 30s. If the Italians take a pragmatic approach to handling the Ethiopian resistance, they can make the resistance look like wild bandits and isolate them from the native Ethiopian populace.
 
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