WI: Earlier Irish Independence?

Hello all! I'm very new here, this is actually my first suggestion. I love the idea of Alternate history as I've been drawing maps of such events to pass time in school since I was little.

Anyway, let's not waste any of your time.

So, in this timeline, after the Potato Famine of the 1840s, the Irish decide to shed the yoke a bit earlier, and declare independence, and are an independent nation circa 1860?

I think the same problem with Ulster staying with the UK would remain a large issue, of course, however The Troubles of the 1960s-1980s would have happened earlier, and wouldn't have been as severe in my opinion.

Also, 1860 is an interesting date citing what is going on across the Atlantic. Any ramifications with the American Civil War? Would the Irish in the United States decide to move back across to help aid in the fight like what happened in OTL?



Secondly, I would suggest an even earlier date, Possibly back in the era after the American Revolution? A sense of nationalism could sweep the island and a civil war could break out soon after.

Thoughts?

Thanks everyone for reading!
 
Welcome to the site! You're asking about one of my alternate-history scenarios, and there's a lot to discuss. Unfortunately- and don't worry, most everyone's first scenarios get answered this way- what you're suggesting is fairly hard to achieve.


Irish independence in the nineteenth century is doable- but the scenario you've suggested is unlikely. There were various independence movements in the middle of the century, often consisting of people who'd been radicalised by the Famine. But the problem with the Famine sparking independence is that it was, you know, a famine.
An island that has just been demographically crippled, with an economy entirely reliant upon exports by an establishment class, and no plausible great power sponsor- that is not an island in any position whatsoever to revolt. There was a rebellion in 1848 by a group called the "Young Irelanders," and it was a damp squib as a result.

If you want a unified Ireland that wins its independence through violence, your best bet is to go back to the 1790s. If the United Irishmen can actually get French troops on the ground, probably during the Republic's expedition under Lazare Hoche (though a later, Napoleonic intervention is just possible) then they might have been in a position to win independence in an alt-Treaty of Amiens.

In the second half of the nineteenth century, winning a war against the British would be tremendously hard. Most Irish were nationalists, but unlike the extremists of the time- the "Fenians"- they didn't necessarily see that nationalism as being opposed to a place in the British Empire. So any rising would have had- just as in OTL- very limited public support, and the British couldn't be expected to bungle their handling of the aftermath in the way that they did with the Easter Rising OTL. The Fenians rose up in 1867, and the result was really more of a round of arrests than an actual military action.

Now, it's conceivable that the Irish could win independence as a dominion under Charles Parnell, the "uncrowned king of Ireland." Even then, that would require real concessions to the unionist minority, especially in the north. But after his fall in 1890, it's extremely unlikely that an Irish dominion would avoid some form of partition.

Still- never say never. If Britain's status as a superpower wasn't quite so impregnable- say in a timeline where there's a surviving Napoleonic empire, or a First Republic, or just a stronger France after the congress of Vienna- then the radicals would have someone on the continent to act as a possible backer, much like Germany eventually became one in the early twentieth century.
If you couple that with the Irish public becoming radicalised- if for some reason, the British government cracks down hard on "soft" nationalism and alienates the Irish people in general- then you might get the breeding ground for a wider rising.

But as I said, it's a tricky one to say the least.
 
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