WI - Earlier Chinese Victory in the Second Sino-Japanese War?

Were the Chinese ever capable of defeating Japan prior to the beginning of World War 2? How could we get an earlier Japanese defeat at the hands of KMT China between 1937-39/40?
 
Who would he ally with?
If the Molotov-Ribentropp unholy alliance thingy still happens, then Hitler could ally with China by proxy, seeming as the KMT was an ally of the USSR. But i think he would only cater to the Chinese to keep Stalin sweet -- if Germany still invades Russia, he'd backtrack on his stance towards the Japanese.
That is, if the Japanese still retain control of any Chinese territory. Japan getting completely knocked out of the Chinese coast would obviously hurt the superiority complex of the Imperial Japanese Armed Forces, which might dissuade them from trying again.
 
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If the Molotov-Ribentropp still happens, then Hitler could ally with China by proxy, seeming as the KMT was an ally of the USSR. But i think he would only cater to the Chinese to keep Stalin sweet -- if Germany still invades Russia, he'd backtrack on his stance towards the Japanese.
That is, if the Japanese still retain control of any Chinese territory. Japan getting completely knocked out of the Chinese coast would obviously hurt the ego of the Imperial Japanese Armed Forces.
Would China really become a member of the Axis?
 
Would China really become a member of the Axis?
Hitler could decide that a more robust China would be more feasible as a German ally than a defeated Japan (he apparently didn't think of the Chinese as a lesser race than the Japanese), but i think it mostly depends on the USSR's stance on the whole deal.
 
Hitler could decide that a more robust China would be more feasible as a German ally than a defeated Japan (he apparently didn't think of the Chinese as a lesser race than the Japanese), but i think it mostly depends on the USSR's stance on the whole deal.
The USSR might replace the US as a supporter, considering their support for China financially and materially.
 
Were the Chinese ever capable of defeating Japan prior to the beginning of World War 2? How could we get an earlier Japanese defeat at the hands of KMT China between 1937-39/40?

Probably the only chance for a meaningful Chinese victory in the early period would have been as a pre-emptive strike on the small Japanese garrison in Shanghai prior to the outbreak of general war. At that time there were only around 4,000 IJN SNLF personnel in the city, as opposed to 50,000 KMT soldiers. As it was these Chinese troops were unable to destroy the Japanese prior to the arrival of the Shanghai Expeditionary Army (2 divisions, an artillery regiment, tanks AA, AT, and the like), and after a second landing by 3 more divisions and a large amount of artillery the window for a quick victory had expired. By the time further IJA reinforcements landed (the 10th Army) the Japanese effort developed into a counteroffensive to envelop the KMT around Shanghai and push forward to Nanking.

In the Beijing-Tientsin region to the north there was little chance of the Japanese being turned back; the Chinese didn't have the mobility or firepower.

Unfortunately for the KMT, it's unlikely they could have been more prompt at addressing the Japanese aggression at Shanghai, because only 19 days passed between the "Oyama Incident" and the gathering of 14 to 15 Chinese divisions in-theater; 1 to 2 arrived daily thereafter, and even this breakneck pace wash insufficient to crush the Japanese lodgement.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
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Monthly Donor
Probably the only chance for a meaningful Chinese victory in the early period would have been as a pre-emptive strike on the small Japanese garrison in Shanghai prior to the outbreak of general war. At that time there were only around 4,000 IJN SNLF personnel in the city, as opposed to 50,000 KMT soldiers. As it was these Chinese troops were unable to destroy the Japanese prior to the arrival of the Shanghai Expeditionary Army (2 divisions, an artillery regiment, tanks AA, AT, and the like), and after a second landing by 3 more divisions and a large amount of artillery the window for a quick victory had expired. By the time further IJA reinforcements landed (the 10th Army) the Japanese effort developed into a counteroffensive to envelop the KMT around Shanghai and push forward to Nanking.

In the Beijing-Tientsin region to the north there was little chance of the Japanese being turned back; the Chinese didn't have the mobility or firepower.

Unfortunately for the KMT, it's unlikely they could have been more prompt at addressing the Japanese aggression at Shanghai, because only 19 days passed between the "Oyama Incident" and the gathering of 14 to 15 Chinese divisions in-theater; 1 to 2 arrived daily thereafter, and even this breakneck pace wash insufficient to crush the Japanese lodgement.

Great details here.

---It's arguable China did not win against China, other beat Japan *for* China, and China's victory was a side-effect of that. In OTL it was mainly the American effort responsible (with a lesser contribution from the Soviet effort and a yet smaller contribution from the British Empire). But, the simplest way to have another country beat Japan and have China liberated as a side-effect would be Soviet-Japanese War in the 1930s that the Soviets win.
 
Great details here.

---It's arguable China did not win against China, other beat Japan *for* China, and China's victory was a side-effect of that. In OTL it was mainly the American effort responsible (with a lesser contribution from the Soviet effort and a yet smaller contribution from the British Empire). But, the simplest way to have another country beat Japan and have China liberated as a side-effect would be Soviet-Japanese War in the 1930s that the Soviets win.

At minimum the prompt intervention of a great power into the Second-Sino Japanese War would have led to status-quo negotiations between the Japanese and CKS.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
At minimum the prompt intervention of a great power into the Second-Sino Japanese War would have led to status-quo negotiations between the Japanese and CKS.

Agreed, at least if we are talking military intervention and not just economic sanctions.
 
You could have a number of German Volunteers embed into the KMT in the 30s - improving it's training and officer corps as well as its staffing capabilities

Also 'volunteer' German pilots could effectively form a 'German Air Force' in China and AFV tactics could be worked on etc

Just thought that such a situation might put China into the Axis camp and therefore enemy of my enemy and all that places Japan in the Allied camp - now that would be a POD!
 
How early could American support for China come?

Long after the time outlined in the OP here. 1937-1940 the US could not even requip its own Army. The best it could do is send a lot of old Great War era weapons & some ammunition. Since near all that was horse transport type material the Chinese would need to come up with a mass of horses & fodder. Additional transportation in the form of railway material, and automobiles would need to be provided as well. In 1938 the US aircraft industry was thinking in terms of 300 military aircraft a year being a big order. Japan was far ahead of that in military aircraft.

You could have a number of German Volunteers embed into the KMT in the 30s - improving it's training and officer corps as well as its staffing capabilities

Also 'volunteer' German pilots could effectively form a 'German Air Force' in China and AFV tactics could be worked on etc

This the KMT armies needed more than equipment. Whats the point in having a lot of weapons if the HQ staff and commanders have no idea how to se them. As it was Germany had enough cadre in China to train one good corps, and a few associated units.

Just thought that such a situation might put China into the Axis camp and therefore enemy of my enemy and all that places Japan in the Allied camp - now that would be a POD!

Not far from where things might have gone. Japan had until the early 1920s been a client state of Britain. The Chinese despised the "Unequal Trieites" and chafed under the European treaty enclaves and trade arraignments. A important political goal of the KMT was to end the treaty system and trade with the Europeans on a basis far more advantageous to China. Their ultimate goal of returning China as the dominate power in Asia ran directly contrary to European colonial interests. Facist Germany was a fellow traveler with China in its goal to marginalize the economic and political power of the European colonial empires.
 
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