WI - Dzungaria wank

Not sure what PODs a Dzungaria wank would entail though aside from controlling all of Xinjiang and Mongolia to the present day, to what extent would they be able to dominate much of Central Asia beyond ruling over parts of OTL Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan?
 
Prevent the Manchus from taking over China, block Russian expansion east of Yenisei. Adopt cannons and learn to build an economy on Siberian "soft gold".
 
In relation to your comments, what could be the relationship between the Dzungars and a hypothetically long Shun Dynasty?
Raiding, raiding, maybe overthrowing. Li Zicheng wasn't yet in complete control, with the whole south yet holding to the Zhu family. That means conflict between north and south, which opens up many more opportunities for the northern steppe hordes to attack. If the Dzungars have a good run of it, they can potentially reunify the Mongol peoples and quite a bit of the steppe without any Chinese empire to oppose (assuming the Shun stay alive long enough without getting conquered/overthrown, they'd still have to deal with the south before they can deal with the hordes). Who knows, a successful enough Dzungars might be able to reconquer northern China as a new Yuan (since the situation would likely be a bit like the Jin-Song back in the 13th century). They'd either end up sinicized or overthrown (or maybe both), however and, assuming a long enough stay on the Dragon Throne, cement all of Mongolia into a modern China (like how the Manchu Qing did with Manchuria).

Wanking, of course.
 
If the Dzungars have a good run of it, they can potentially reunify the Mongol peoples and quite a bit of the steppe without any Chinese empire to oppose (assuming the Shun stay alive long enough without getting conquered/overthrown, they'd still have to deal with the south before they can deal with the hordes).

Wanking, of course.
....Despite their animosity with the Khalkhas?
 
In relation to your comments, what could be the relationship between the Dzungars and a hypothetically long Shun Dynasty?
Li Zicheng's regime was unlikely to survive even if the Manchus did not attack.It was more like Huang Chao's regime rather than a solid one like Liu Bang or Zhu Yuanzhang's.
 
....Despite their animosity with the Khalkhas?
I was thinking just straight up conquering them, honestly. Galdan Boshugtu Khan did pretty well against them and without the Qing to back them up, doesn't seem impossible for the Dzungars to dominate Mongolia. Any Dzungaria wank would kinda necessitate a gimped Manchu though, I think.
 
In relation to your comments, what could be the relationship between the Dzungars and a hypothetically long Shun Dynasty?

The Dzungar Khanate was west of Mongolia, or the Northern Yuan when the Ming empire collapsed. IOTL they didn't collide with the Qing until the Dzungars conquered Mogulistan or Xinjiang in the 1680s and the Qing finally subjegated Mongolia in the early 1700s, with Dzungar invasion of Tibet shortly after. So without the Qing, the Shun Dynasty wouldn't be dealing with Dzungar invasion for decades, plenty of time to consolidate.

Presumably the Dzungars would conquer Mongolia in the 18th century and this would set up a conflict with China much as the Oriat invasion in the 15th century. Unlike that period though the Chinese were well equipped with cannons by late Ming and the gunpowder revolution was taking off when the Manchus came in and froze technological progress.

By the 18th century, the Dzungars aren't going to have an easy time against a hypothetically unified Shun or surviving Ming empire unless they can mass produce bronze cannons to break their cities. But the Chinese will also keep to the defensive.

The potential conflict between the Dzungars and Russians would be potentially interesting. IOTL the Qing empire didn't give a hoot when Russians took traditional Mongol lands, like Lake Baikal for example. The Qing only rolled back the Russians when they crossed into Manchuria. An unchecked expansionist Dzungar Khanate may take a different view.
 
Given OTL situation, Dzungaria's rise was inevitable. Ming already descending to warring state era, so only potential rival was Qing. So you just need to screw them.
POD will be after death of Abahai (Hong Taiji), Qing descends to the civil war, which exhaust itself and becomes divided entity. Make Erden Baatur taiji consolidate Oirats early and create Dzungaria. around 1650's they need to will beat Khalkha's badly and integrate it. 1680's conquer Qing territory. Vasalize Kazakhs, Kokand and Bukhara, So by 1700's Dzugarian Empire will stretch from Balkhash to Pacific, from Baikal to Tibet. I will have population of around 4-5 million. Now start reform and strengthen using European advisers.

1. Get out of Chinese mess. Warring state era will be last till 1720's. When some southern King unites China, help him beat Northern rival. Keep friendly relationship with this new Dynasty, like it was during Tang-Uyghur era. New Chinese Dynasty will be closed to foreigners.
2. Keep friendly relationship with Russian Empire.
3. Use Tea road trade to dominate trade between China and Europe. Use profit from this to modernize army and develop state. Establish capital along the Tea road.
4. Last half of XIX century sell Outer Manchuria to Russian Empire. Use money to build railway. ITTL, Dzungaria will be rich in natural resources so start industrialization. Keep friendly relationship with US (since they don't have an conflict with Russia) and attract American capital.

Biggest threat will be Japanese Empire. If Dzungaria can stay safe from Japanese aggression, then pursue policy of Finlandization post WWII.
 
There's no way Dzungaria could keep friendly relations with the Russian empire imo. Russian expansion was driven by lack of opposition and the perceived need to create maxium buffer zone. The Russians only stopped expanding when they ran into cannon armed Qing.

Without the Qing, the Dzungars will also face no external threat other than the Russians. If they fail to stop Russian expansion, which is likely, then they will be absorbed or vasselized just like the rest of Central Asia. A great Russian advantage is simply that they could outlast nomadic empires. They just have to wait for the usual collapse by internal division. If Russian cities are already established near Dzungar lands, then of course they will take advantage of the opportunity.
 
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3. Use Tea road trade to dominate trade between China and Europe. Use profit from this to modernize army and develop state. Establish capital along the Tea road.

As a point of reference. The Dzungar heartland was just south of Krasnoyarsk, right on the old the Tea Road. If Russian expansion takes its course, without the Qing empire to check it and with the vast agricultural potential of the Lake Baikal region, Russia would surely take most of Mongolia in the 17th century and Xinjiang by 18th century At best the Dzungars today live in a "Dzungarstan" consisting of bits of Mongolia and Xinjiang. Which is something, but hardly a wank.
 
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yourworstnightmare

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Not sure what PODs a Dzungaria wank would entail though aside from controlling all of Xinjiang and Mongolia to the present day, to what extent would they be able to dominate much of Central Asia beyond ruling over parts of OTL Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan?
They were going for Tibet, so they'd probably consolidate their rule there, replacing the Khoshut Khanate. This would also mean they'd come into contact with the very organized civil structure of the monastic administration there.
 
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As a point of reference. The Dzungar heartland was just south of Krasnoyarsk, right on the old the Tea Road

Seems you are extremely bad informed. What is OTL Tuva is very small branch of Oirats which was part of Dorbods.
Dzungars heartland was Ili river value/Dzungarian Alatau, Tarbagatai range, Irtish river value and Khovdo region.
I don't understand what you referring to as old Tea Road or if you mean early encounter of Russians with Mongols, then it was Altan Khan of Khalkha Mongols who controlled Khotgoid which included your mentioned upper section of Enisei river.
View attachment 319688
If Russian expansion takes its course, without the Qing empire to check it and with the vast agricultural potential of the Lake Baikal region, Russia would surely take most of Mongolia in the 17th century and Xinjiang by 18th century At best the Dzungars today live in a "Dzungarstan" consisting of bits of Mongolia and Xinjiang. Which is something, but hardly a wank.

Lake Baikal is not vast agriculture potential. majority of it forest with permafrost soil. Moreover Dzungars accepted Russians rule over Baikal region already in 1680's since Baikal region was under Khakha rule. Russian rule over Baikla meant weakening of Khalkha Mongols which is in line with Dzungarian policy.
View attachment 319688

Russia would surely take most of Mongolia in the 17th century and Xinjiang by 18th century At best the Dzungars today live in a "Dzungarstan" consisting of bits of Mongolia and Xinjiang. Which is something, but hardly a wank.
Again you have very bad historical knowledge.
Actually Russia and Dzungars were very friendly. And even if Russians wanted to conquer Dzungaria they can't dedicate enough troops and logistic will be impossible.
Russia need to conquer Kazakhs before even to think about Dzungaria and Mongolia. And there is Central Asia, Khiva, Kokand and Buhkhara which is weaker than Dzungars.
First Kazakhs to take an oath of allegiance (not conquest by Russia) to Russia was Little Juz in 1731 (in 18th century), who wanted defense against Dzungars. And Middle Juz even not accepted allegiance to Russian throne till 1800 (19th century). Kazakh resistance lasted till 1847 when Kenesary, last Kazakh Khan died that year. So Russians hand is full with managing Kazakhs until first half of 19th century. Now later half of 19th century Russians might want to expand. Therefore I suggested selling or if not possible just give Outer Manchuria to Russia. Dzungars even can hand hand them and East Turkestan. Then can become semi-protectorate of Russian Empire.

There's no way Dzungaria could keep friendly relations with the Russian empire imo. Russian expansion was driven by lack of opposition and the perceived need to create maxium buffer zone. The Russians only stopped expanding when they ran into cannon armed Qing.

Without the Qing, the Dzungars will also face no external threat other than the Russians. If they fail to stop Russian expansion, which is likely, then they will be absorbed or vasselized just like the rest of Central Asia. A great Russian advantage is simply that they could outlast nomadic empires. They just have to wait for the usual collapse by internal division. If Russian cities are already established near Dzungar lands, then of course they will take advantage of the opportunity.

1. This is Dzungaria wank scenario, so there is no collapse of Dzungaria.
2. Dzungarians also used cannon. Johan Gustaf Renat helped organize Dzungarian military and especially artillery regiment.
The resistance against Russian incursion will be far greater than Qing put against Russia. So no, Russia has zero chance winning against Dzungaria til last half of 19th century.
 
Seems you are extremely bad informed. What is OTL Tuva is very small branch of Oirats which was part of Dorbods.
Dzungars heartland was Ili river value/Dzungarian Alatau, Tarbagatai range, Irtish river value and Khovdo region.
I don't understand what you referring to as old Tea Road or if you mean early encounter of Russians with Mongols, then it was Altan Khan of Khalkha Mongols who controlled Khotgoid which included your mentioned upper section of Enisei river.

Yes I said south of Krasnoyarsk. Dzungaria is within a thousand kilometers, which is next door by horse nomad standards.

Lake Baikal is not vast agriculture potential. majority of it forest with permafrost soil. Moreover Dzungars accepted Russians rule over Baikal region already in 1680's since Baikal region was under Khakha rule. Russian rule over Baikla meant weakening of Khalkha Mongols which is in line with Dzungarian policy.

When Russians reached Baikal it was described as the promised land of future settlement. It's not looked upon in that context today only because 19th century conquest of far richer Manchu lands eclipsed it. But even today not counting the Russian Far East, the narrow band of land on the Russian Mongolia border represent all agricultural land east of Krasnoyarsk. As for Dzungar Khalkha relations, see below.

Again you have very bad historical knowledge.
Actually Russia and Dzungars were very friendly. And even if Russians wanted to conquer Dzungaria they can't dedicate enough troops and logistic will be impossible.
Russia need to conquer Kazakhs before even to think about Dzungaria and Mongolia. And there is Central Asia, Khiva, Kokand and Buhkhara which is weaker than Dzungars.
First Kazakhs to take an oath of allegiance (not conquest by Russia) to Russia was Little Juz in 1731 (in 18th century), who wanted defense against Dzungars. And Middle Juz even not accepted allegiance to Russian throne till 1800 (19th century). Kazakh resistance lasted till 1847 when Kenesary, last Kazakh Khan died that year. So Russians hand is full with managing Kazakhs until first half of 19th century. Now later half of 19th century Russians might want to expand. Therefore I suggested selling or if not possible just give Outer Manchuria to Russia. Dzungars even can hand hand them and East Turkestan. Then can become semi-protectorate of Russian Empire.



1. This is Dzungaria wank scenario, so there is no collapse of Dzungaria.
2. Dzungarians also used cannon. Johan Gustaf Renat helped organize Dzungarian military and especially artillery regiment.
The resistance against Russian incursion will be far greater than Qing put against Russia. So no, Russia has zero chance winning against Dzungaria til last half of 19th century.

The problem with this thinking is not factoring the impact on regional balance of power with a Manchu screw scenario. The Manchus didn't just wipe out the Dzungars, they also kept the Russians out of Mongolia and Xinjiang. Russia made no attempt to take these lands until mid-19th century because of the Treaty of Nurchinsk. It was the Qing Empire that drove an attempted Russian invasion out of Ili in 1878.

The Dzungars were friendly with the Russians because they had common enemies with the Manchus and Khalkha. But without the Qing Empire the Dzungars will have no external threat except Russia, and being the only expansionist superpower left in the region they have no incentive to stay friendly with Russia. Only it's highly unlikely the Dzungars would succeed long term if they acquiesce to Russian control of Baikal in the late 17th century.

I can't see any realistic scenario where unchecked Russian expansion don't eventually do to the Dzungars what they did to the rest of Central Asia. Which is exactly what I expect in a Manchu screw scenario. I did make the mistake saying Russia would take Mongolia in the 17th century and Xinjiang in the 18th century, when I meant 1700s and 1800s respectively. None the less your scenario is not a Dzungar wank, but a Russia wank.
 
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