WI Dutch (or Spanish) invade Okinawa instead of Taiwan in the 1620s

[raharris1973]

What if the Dutch who set up forts in southern Taiwan in 1624, or the Spanish who set up a fort in northern Taiwan in 1626 had instead attempted to seize Okinawa as an advance base for their far eastern trade?

Could the the soldiers and marines who established themselves on Taiwan have successfully subdued Okinawa? On the one hand it is more vulnerable to naval action, on the other hand it can be better fortified.

As it turns out the Shimazu's of Satsuma exerted vassalage over Okinawa by this time, with the approval of the Shoguns. But, we should not expect this to be a deterrent, since the Japanese sought to hide their dominance from the Chinese and presumably the Dutch would be unaware of it. The biggest worry the Dutch or Spanish might have would probably be Chinese, rather than Japanese, retaliation.

If the Ryukyuans and Shimazu Samurai did not drive off the Dutch, would both China and Japan tolerate it or would either attempt a counterattack against the Europeans? What would be the odds of either winning?

How would this influence Japan's turn toward Sakoku? I would imagine that if they were miffed about the Dutch in Okinawa, the Japanese would not permit the Dutch to stay established at Dejima in mainland Japan.

 

[Hrvatskiwi]

The problem with this scenario is that it requires the Japanese (or at least Satsuma) to be economically developed enough to attract Dutch/Spanish attention instead of China, whilst at the same time being militarily and politically weak enough to be unable to mount an effective counterattack. Given the limited resources of both European players in the area, it's Formosa OR Ryukyu. Why choose Ryukyu when China is a much more attractive market???

 

[Intransigent Southerner]

Satsuma would act immediately. Ryukyuan tribute was an immense source of revenue for the Satsuma Domain, and everyone in Japan knows the crumbling Ming dynasty wouldn't be able to act effectively. And if necessary, it can just brand the reconquest of Ryukyu as a friendly neighbor of China helping out.

 

[raharris1973]

Satsuma would act immediately. Ryukyuan tribute was an immense source of revenue for the Satsuma Domain, and everyone in Japan knows the crumbling Ming dynasty wouldn't be able to act effectively. And if necessary, it can just brand the reconquest of Ryukyu as a friendly neighbor of China helping out.

Nice, especially that last part.

Think the Japanese are going to let the Dutch park in Deshima after dust-up? If the Dutch don't have a trading enclave in Nagasaki, does anybody else? English possibly?

The problem with this scenario is that it requires the Japanese (or at least Satsuma) to be economically developed enough to attract Dutch/Spanish attention instead of China, whilst at the same time being militarily and politically weak enough to be unable to mount an effective counterattack.

Actually those would be requirements for the Dutch or Spanish to both colonize *and* successfully hold on. Failure in the long-run is at least as likely, as it was on Taiwan.

The advantage Taiwan had over Okinawa in China trade was pure proximity, but the Taiwan was also an undeveloped savage wilderness that actually had less trade with China than Okinawa did. Okinawa is useful for trading with both China *and* Japan. Plus it has a harbor infrastructure and native labor force accustomed to longshoreman's work.

 

[WeissRaben]

1624 means that the Sakoku hasn't taken off yet and the Japanese armies are still formidable enough: if someone tries to take Okinawa, it's not going to stick, even just by sheer logistics. The interesting part is: would a victory - especially a crushing one - against an external enemy help to reverse the isolationism started after the defeat in Korea, or would it speed up its development and make it harsher than OTL Sakoku?

 

[Diego]

What is the naval power of Japan compared to the european?

I mean, what ships Japan was using at the time?

 

[WeissRaben]

What is the naval power of Japan compared to the european?

I mean, what ships Japan was using at the time?

Rebuilt European ships, IIRC. Japan had been moving to the West's side very aggressively from the second half of the 16th century, and just before the Sakoku hits they were arguably fully on the same level (even society-wise, which later helped with actual modernization post-Sakoku).

 

[Timaeus]

But could not Okinawa take this chance to gain its independence from Satsuma pull a sort of Siam with the Europeans and Japanese?

 

[raharris1973]

But could not Okinawa take this chance to gain its independence from Satsuma pull a sort of Siam with the Europeans and Japanese?

Perhaps, but then again, they couldn't do a Siam between China and Japan, rather it had to take turns being concubine of one or the other.

if someone tries to take Okinawa, it's not going to stick, even just by sheer logistics

I would put the odds on an initial European invasion of Okinawa succeeding, and them being driven out by a Japanese counterattack. But in a wildcard, if there happened to be some well-armed samurai on the island [if they had good cannon with them of course] they could jump out and repel the invaders once it became clear the Euros intentions were hostile. The Japanese MO was to try to conceal their dominance of Okinawa when foreigners [Chinese] visited.