WI: Dunkirk goes horribly wrong

What if the Evacuation at Dunkirk was a complete fuck-up on part of the British? There was a lot of soldiers, namely the BEF and some French and Belgian troops that were evacuated.

But what if a majority of the boats that the British utilized during the evacuation are captured by the Wehrmacht or become a non-factor in the evacuation (let's say that the Wehrmacht destroys a majority of the boats via aerial bombing and shelling), and a majority of the troops evacuated OTL are slaughtered or captured by the Nazis?

How does this affect British morale? What effect does this have on the Battle of Britain?
 

Saphroneth

Banned
Doesn't affect morale much, Dunkirk was an unexpected bonus. They didn't expect to save a tenth the troops they did.


It means that:

1) The UK has a bit less of a margin in the naval arena in preventing Sealion. This doesn't matter much, their margin was huge.
2) The UK has much less manpower available to send to North Africa. Compass happens later, if at all.
3) Earlier manpower problems. Possibly Indian units are sent to low intensity locations and White troops are moved out of them in order to free them up.
4) Battle of Britain might actually go a little easier for the Brits, given that more sunk ships and boats means more sorties were done which means more attrition of German aircraft.

Basically the main knock-on effects are in the Mediterranean.
 

Deleted member 1487

What if the Evacuation at Dunkirk was a complete fuck-up on part of the British? There was a lot of soldiers, namely the BEF and some French and Belgian troops that were evacuated.

But what if a majority of the boats that the British utilized during the evacuation are captured by the Wehrmacht or become a non-factor in the evacuation (let's say that the Wehrmacht destroys a majority of the boats via aerial bombing and shelling), and a majority of the troops evacuated OTL are slaughtered or captured by the Nazis?

How does this affect British morale? What effect does this have on the Battle of Britain?
I suppose we could assume good flying weather for the whole operation, rather than only 2 days of it. Not sure if that gets you what you want, but its about as close as you can get without having the No Halt order preventing the entire evacuation anyway.

Doesn't affect morale much, Dunkirk was an unexpected bonus. They didn't expect to save a tenth the troops they did.
Only the War Cabinet and Admiralty anticipated that, the public didn't know there was a disaster looming until the evacuation was almost over; it may not affect Churchill's expectations, but it will destroy public morale to have an epic defeat that destroys the BEF at Dunkirk plus the elements of the RN committed.

It means that:

1) The UK has a bit less of a margin in the naval arena in preventing Sealion. This doesn't matter much, their margin was huge.
2) The UK has much less manpower available to send to North Africa. Compass happens later, if at all.
3) Earlier manpower problems. Possibly Indian units are sent to low intensity locations and White troops are moved out of them in order to free them up.
4) Battle of Britain might actually go a little easier for the Brits, given that more sunk ships and boats means more sorties were done which means more attrition of German aircraft.

Basically the main knock-on effects are in the Mediterranean.
Yeah, nothing is leaving the UK for any other theaters due to public panic. Churchill would not be all that likely to win the May Cabinet Crisis and may just resign if he loses. There would also be the loss of a lot of critical officers that would be in crucial positions later, like Monty, but also men with experience of the way the Germans fought that developed countermeasures and new training programs. So losing the BEF is huge for morale and military operations from here on out. Greece is pretty much done for and there will not be a Crete battle. In fact the Germans may not even get involved in Africa or the Balkans until 1942 or later. Frankly is more likely Britain exists the war after this than continues out of panic and Churchill losing the May Cabinet Crisis.
 
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Except Compass was executed without any troops leaving Britain. IIRC all they sent were tanks, if that even. I'd have to check that. In fact no troops left Britain until 1941. As BEF lost all of their equipment, sending tanks would still happen, whether BEF escapes or not. Intervention in Greece would be doubtful though.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
Except Compass was executed without any troops leaving Britain. IIRC all they sent were tanks, if that even. I'd have to check that. In fact no troops left Britain until 1941. As BEF lost all of their equipment, sending tanks would still happen, whether BEF escapes or not. Intervention in Greece would be doubtful though.
It's the tanks I'm thinking of, probably. And yes, quite a few were sent - I was thinking they might be kept in the UK to serve as a local counterforce.

Regardless, the butterflies are probably in the Med as that's where all the land action was for the early war. I could see Greece falling without reinforcements sent, the Brits forting up at El Alamein without going on the offensive and then being pretty much stuck there until the Americans join the war.
 

Deleted member 1487

Except Compass was executed without any troops leaving Britain. IIRC all they sent were tanks, if that even. I'd have to check that. In fact no troops left Britain until 1941. As BEF lost all of their equipment, sending tanks would still happen, whether BEF escapes or not. Intervention in Greece would be doubtful though.
Compass depended on supplies sent in August, so they got something that was necessary.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Compass#British_plan
Also the 7th RTR would not be there, it was at Dunkirk:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/7th_Royal_Tank_Regiment

It might be too that the British end up drawing down their forces in Egypt to reinforce Britain given the likely resulting panic at home. Why would Britain still send tanks when they would need them at home? They were in the process of forming new units and would need all equipment and supplies to defend the Home Isles.

It's the tanks I'm thinking of, probably. And yes, quite a few were sent - I was thinking they might be kept in the UK to serve as a local counterforce.

Regardless, the butterflies are probably in the Med as that's where all the land action was for the early war. I could see Greece falling without reinforcements sent, the Brits forting up at El Alamein without going on the offensive and then being pretty much stuck there until the Americans join the war.
Assuming they stay in. They'd likely stay on the defensive pretty hard, which would likely preclude the Germans even getting involved in Greece if and when Yugoslavia became a problem. So that means a lot more troops and aircraft in the East; 2nd air fleet would remain in the East well into 1942 if not 1943 and the Germans may never get involved in Africa at all. Which would be very bad news in 1941-43 for the Soviets.
 
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Frankly is more likely Britain exists the war after this than continues out of panic and Churchill losing the May Cabinet Crisis.

At the time of the May Cabinet Crisis, the BEF was widely believed to be lost anyways. Churchill still won.

Really, the British perceived Dunkirk as a "miracle" because they didn't think the BEF would be able to successfully evacuate.
 

Deleted member 1487

At the time of the May Cabinet Crisis, the BEF was widely believed to be lost anyways. Churchill still won.
No, they were setting up the evacuation, Churchill won that when the perimeter was thought to be able to be formed. By the 28th the perimeter was formed and Churchill clearly the winner of that discussion. If there are problems with forming it for some reason, things get dicier, especially if then things go south with the evacuation; the issue would be reopened if things went tits up after the 28th and losses are even worse with naval units in addition to the BEF being lost in the end.

And who thought they would be lost? Not the public, they had no idea what was going on until after it was almost over; it was the cabinet that framed the whole situation in a positive light after it was already confirmed as a success. If they don't have a miracle to show the public, it would get very interesting how they would portray events.
 
No, they were setting up the evacuation,

But it wasn't done and expectations for it's success were low.

Churchill won that when the perimeter was thought to be able to be formed.
Churchill won the argument when he pointed out that Hitler had thoroughly breached every agreement he had made in the past and thus a peace treaty with him was worth spit.

And who thought they would be lost? Not the public, they had no idea what was going on until after it was almost over; it was the cabinet that framed the whole situation in a positive light after it was already confirmed as a success.
Sure. That was why it was viewed as a "miracle". After all, people aren't going to view a unexpected turn-around as a miracle unless they don't know the situation is desperate. :rolleyes:

I should also be noted that your assertion that the evacuation was "not announced until it was almost over" is patently false: May 29th is in the dead middle of it. And the British public knew the BEF was in bad straights well before any announcement was made... rather hard to hide a disaster on the scale of the German breakthrough-exploitation at the Meuse.
 
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Saphroneth

Banned
Remember, Dunkirk was thought to be flat fucking impossible until it happened. Indeed, the Germans didn't think it possible until after the War ended - they believed the true numbers given for troops rescued were propoganda.
 
I'd also ask how the Germans got so damned competent. In fact, I don't see this happening, if the Germans break through and take most of the force prisoner, the Navy won't have much to do, and so won't be in a position to be attacked as much. Either the British fail on land, or the fail at see, but I can't see both happening.
 

Deleted member 1487

I'd also ask how the Germans got so damned competent. In fact, I don't see this happening, if the Germans break through and take most of the force prisoner, the Navy won't have much to do, and so won't be in a position to be attacked as much. Either the British fail on land, or the fail at see, but I can't see both happening.
That is the core issue with this; its either taking Dunkirk before the evacuation or ASBs.
 
Also, remember that even with a total fuckup, there are still some troops that will get out.

28 000 men had been evacuated before Operation Dynamo started. 98 671 were evacuated with small boats directly from the beaches.

Key officers and personell, such as staff command, higher officers, tankers and so on might get priority even in a total fuckup (for example, the port of Dunkirk falling early).

Remember that there were British troops that were not in the pocket as well - the British moved two divisions to northern France as reinforcements and evacuated them and troops that were south of the Somme in Operation Ariel, which got 192 000 men (144 000 of them British) out.

Remember also that 100 000 of the about 334 000 troops evacuated in Operation Dynamo were French - if push comes to shove, the British can ignore them and focus on their own men.

At most, a failed Operation Dynamo means 100-120 000 more British prisoners for the Germans.
 
"Churchill won the argument when he pointed out that Hitler had thoroughly breached every agreement he had made in the past and thus a peace treaty with him was worth spit".

Reynaud thought the same thing. But I can understand why the French had to deal, suffer unrestricted occupation of France for unknown years or mitigate and reduce the occupation by dealing.

But the Brits will have stuff to resist still even with a fail at Dunquirq. Navy, air force, the intact and equipped Canadian corps can be stuck in Kent. The 2nd BEF will stay home this time.

The anemic german submarine campaign so far due to torpedo issues and British tactical superiority at places like Narvik and river Platte had proven the British navy was up to the task even in equal fights much less superiority.

There probably would be some concern, unknown as of yet, that even if invasion was unlikely the Germans could launch an air/sea blockade to greatly reduce imports, but why not wait and see if that actually happens and make a deal later if need be.
 

TFSmith121

Banned
It's impossible...

What if the Evacuation at Dunkirk was a complete fuck-up on part of the British? There was a lot of soldiers, namely the BEF and some French and Belgian troops that were evacuated.

But what if a majority of the boats that the British utilized during the evacuation are captured by the Wehrmacht or become a non-factor in the evacuation (let's say that the Wehrmacht destroys a majority of the boats via aerial bombing and shelling), and a majority of the troops evacuated OTL are slaughtered or captured by the Nazis?

How does this affect British morale? What effect does this have on the Battle of Britain?

It's impossible...

First, the British (and French, Dutch, etc) have huge merchant marines, with ample shipping, both large and small, capable of evacuating personnel from shallow beaches ... the German armed forces were incapable of reducing those numbers in any way.

The British and French troops were more vulnerable to the German forces ashore, but the problem there is the Germans are advancing, and constantly stretching their supply lines, and do not have air superiority, even over the beaches, much less the Channel.

The British and French are withdrawing, and so have a "shortening" supply line, and are supported by the RAF and RN; if it comes down to it, naval gunfire can defeat any field artillery, much less armored vehicles.

Along with that, Dunkirk was not the only evacuation; additional British and French troops were sucessfully evacuated from the other French channel ports, much less those on the Atlantic coasts.

A sea power can always evacuate its expeditionary forces, as long as they have access to the sea; the UN withdrawals from North Korea after the Chinese invasion are another example.

Best,
 
What if the Evacuation at Dunkirk was a complete fuck-up on part of the British? There was a lot of soldiers, namely the BEF and some French and Belgian troops that were evacuated.

But what if a majority of the boats that the British utilized during the evacuation are captured by the Wehrmacht or become a non-factor in the evacuation (let's say that the Wehrmacht destroys a majority of the boats via aerial bombing and shelling), and a majority of the troops evacuated OTL are slaughtered or captured by the Nazis?

How does this affect British morale? What effect does this have on the Battle of Britain?

This is only possible without the Royal Navy being involved - and the only force on earth that could prevent this is the British Government ordering them not too or the US Navy arriving en mass and stopping them - and I dont see either of those conditions occouring.

As has been discussed ad nausium on other threads the Kriegsmarine is not capable of stopping the Royal Navy (even before the losses sustained during the Norway campaign) nor is the Luftwaffe due to lack of antishipping experiance and the fact that they are still heavily involved in fighting the French.

Also the British Merchant Fleet is flipping huge
 
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