WI Duke of Alba loses the battle of Alcantara on 1580?

The Duke of Alba met little resistance and in July landed his forces at Cascais, west of Lisbon. By mid-August, the Duke was only 10 kilometers from the city. West of the small brook Alcântara, the Spanish encountered a Portuguese force on the eastern side of the it, commanded by Antonio Prior of Crato (a grandson of King Manuel I of Portugal who had proclaimed himself king as António I) and his lieutenant, the Count of Vimioso
The battle ended in a decisive victory for the Spanish Habsburgs, both on land and sea. Two days later, the Duke of Alba captured Lisbon, and on 25 March 1581, Philip II was crowned King of Portugal as Philip I. Spain and Portugal would remain united in a personal union of the crowns (remaining formally independent and with autonomous administrations) for the next 60 years, until 1640.
WI Antonio had won the battle of Alcantara? Would he had secured his crown or Philippe would strike back later?
How is this altering History? Any thoughts?
 
The Duke of Alba met little resistance and in July landed his forces at Cascais, west of Lisbon. By mid-August, the Duke was only 10 kilometers from the city. West of the small brook Alcântara, the Spanish encountered a Portuguese force on the eastern side of the it, commanded by Antonio Prior of Crato (a grandson of King Manuel I of Portugal who had proclaimed himself king as António I) and his lieutenant, the Count of Vimioso
The battle ended in a decisive victory for the Spanish Habsburgs, both on land and sea. Two days later, the Duke of Alba captured Lisbon, and on 25 March 1581, Philip II was crowned King of Portugal as Philip I. Spain and Portugal would remain united in a personal union of the crowns (remaining formally independent and with autonomous administrations) for the next 60 years, until 1640.
WI Antonio had won the battle of Alcantara? Would he had secured his crown or Philippe would strike back later?
How is this altering History? Any thoughts?

Assuming Antonio wins the battle of Alcantara, he would still have to face the Spanish Forces which would still try to occupy Portugal along with pro-Spanish nobles (although he was supported by the commoners and some elements of Clergy and Nobility). The fight would go on for several years and Antonio probably would have used all foreign support he could get.
Another problem would the strong claim from the Duchess of Braganza to the throne.
If he succeeds, this would keep the house of Aviz (or in this case the branch Aviz-Beja). He might try to legitimise his illegitimate son Manuel of Portugal.
The consequences of all this would be no conflicts with the Kingdom of England, nor the Kingdom of France or the Netherlands (when they become independent), which in turn means a larger Portuguese Empire.
It would also mean that in the middle term, Spain would have less money but perhaps more manpower (without trying to keep Portugal in case of rebellion) to fight insurrections and/or enemy powers.
 
The problem is, how could Antonio succeed? If he wins in Alcantara the Spanish would try again, it's only a battle. Also, as Archangel said, those who wanted the Portuguese independence were divided, as we still have the Duchess claim. Many important nobles sided with Philip II, because he paid the ransom of many them or their relatives in Morocco after Ksar-el-Kebir. Even Teodosio, the son of the Duchess, was released from captivity due to Philip's intervention. Even the will of Henry, the last king of the House of Aviz, was that Philip should become the king of Portugal, because he would have more conditions to deffend the Portuguese territories. The Church also supported the Spanish king. The majority of Antonio's supporters were commoners, and so without great political influence. It's very hard to have him being successful.
 
Couldnt Philip II had pushed the candidacy of the 11 yo Ranuccio Farnese? He was a Spanish subject after all and he could procalim young Ranuccio as a compromise candidate after a potential Spanish defeat in Alcantara instead of claiming the Portuguese Crown for himself... A prolonged war with Portugal would have exhausted Spain in financial and manpower terms...
Plus according to Feudal Custom Ranuccio was first in line of succession... as a son of King Henrique's eldest niece Maria...
 
Couldnt Philip II had pushed the candidacy of the 11 yo Ranuccio Farnese? He was a Spanish subject after all and he could procalim young Ranuccio as a compromise candidate after a potential Spanish defeat in Alcantara instead of claiming the Portuguese Crown for himself... A prolonged war with Portugal would have exhausted Spain in financial and manpower terms...
Plus according to Feudal Custom Ranuccio was first in line of succession... as a son of King Henrique's eldest niece Maria...

Well, I think it doesn't really fit with Philip II. In other thread it was suggested that the Spanish might have supported Ranuccio if Philip II had died in 1580 when he got an epidemic flu which caused the death of his wife, Anna of Austria. Then, with a 05-years-old boy as king (his son Diego Felix) whoever is taking the regency might have accepted to support Ranuccio's claim. IOTL his father - Alessandro Farnese - never presented the claim to the Portuguese court exactly because he was a subject of Philip and a general of the Spanish army. Without an adult king to be affraid maybe he could push for his son's claim.

And - shamelessly making a self promotion :D - you can find some ideas about Ranuccio as the Portuguese king in A New Portugal...:D:D
 
Well, I think it doesn't really fit with Philip II. In other thread it was suggested that the Spanish might have supported Ranuccio if Philip II had died in 1580 when he got an epidemic flu which caused the death of his wife, Anna of Austria. Then, with a 05-years-old boy as king (his son Diego Felix) whoever is taking the regency might have accepted to support Ranuccio's claim. IOTL his father - Alessandro Farnese - never presented the claim to the Portuguese court exactly because he was a subject of Philip and a general of the Spanish army. Without an adult king to be affraid maybe he could push for his son's claim.

And - shamelessly making a self promotion :D - you can find some ideas about Ranuccio as the Portuguese king in A New Portugal...:D:D

Unless Habsburgs in HRE push the candidacy of Diego Felix as heir-general of Philip II... couldnt they propose marriage for Diego-Felix with some portuguese princess? Was there any eligible princess then?
 
Unless Habsburgs in HRE push the candidacy of Diego Felix as heir-general of Philip II... couldnt they propose marriage for Diego-Felix with some portuguese princess? Was there any eligible princess then?
I'm afraid there was no one left.
The Aviz were becoming extint.
 
I'm afraid there was no one left.
The Aviz were becoming extint.

Well, there were the daughters of the Duchess of Braganza, but to marry with one of them would be like accepting the validity of the Duchess' claim to the Portuguese throne, and so not very likely. And even if they do such agreement it would probably not be followed in the future, when Diego or his brother Felipe become adults. After all, they were Habsburgs and would more likely marry an Austrian cousin or other relative.
 
Top